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Does the likelihood of international conflict go down the longer a US president is in office?

Eric Barker
November 23, 2010

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This article demonstrates that the probability of an international crisis involving the United States declines as a presidential administration gains time in office. This finding invalidates three widely held theories about the relationship between the American democratic cycle and foreign policy that (1) there might be a honeymoon period immediately following election in which new presidents are unlikely to become involved in foreign crises, (2) presidents might systematically use the “rally round the flag” effect to bolster their electoral prospects, or that more generally, (3) foreign policy might be primarily tied to the democratic constraints of the electoral cycle. This finding also stands in partial contrast to recent work suggesting that, globally, leadership experience does not influence the likelihood of a militarized interstate dispute, while leader age does. The differing conclusions are the result of both the unique American case and the differing formulations of conflict.

Source: “Does Experience Matter? American Presidential Experience, Age, and International Conflict” from Journal of Conflict Resolution

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Post Information
Title Does the likelihood of international conflict go down the longer a US president is in office?
Author Eric Barker
Date November 23, 2010 7:11 PM UTC (13 years ago)
Blog bakadesuyo
Archive Link https://theredarchive.com/blog/bakadesuyo/does-the-likelihood-of-international-conflict-go.16515
https://theredarchive.com/blog/16515
Original Link https://www.bakadesuyo.com/2010/11/does-the-likelihood-of-international-conflict/
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