I continually see the “2-10%” statistic as proof that false accusations are uncommon, suggesting they are not a major concern.
However it just seems like anybody using such a statistic has either a poor understanding of stats or is ignorant. I don’t really understand the motivations behind the people using it.
The 2-10% statistic is misleading without displaying the other side, as it implies as if there are only two outcomes: False Allegation, or True allegation. There were really 3 outcomes from the study that is often referenced: Proven False allegation, Proven True Allegation, and unknown status.
In the study, false allegations are PROVEN to be between 2 and 10 percent. The proper way to say this is that AT LEAST 2-10% of allegations are false.
From the referenced study, the unknown status is around 50 percent.
The argument that between 2 and 10 percent are false allegations implies that between 98 and 90 percent are true, when in the data that is actually highly misleading. You could turn the 2 and 10 percent stat around by saying “only between 10 and 20 percent of rape accusations are proven true” and imply that 80 percent are false allegations.
Make what you want from the findings, but the proper way to report this accurately is:
AT LEAST 2-10 percent of allegations are false
50% are unknown status of the allegation
At LEAST 20-30% are true allegations
In addition to all of this, we just add to the fact that many false rape allegations are not officially filed to police but are social media, workplace and school allegations, and the 2-10% number rapidly becomes meaningless.
Am I missing something here? Why do you think this incredibly misleading statistic so often touted?
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