The End of Democracy Part 2: The Next Great War

The End of Democracy Part 2: The Next Great War

Intro:

The year is 1914…

Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria was riding down the streets of Sarajevo with his wife when they were ambushed and killed by Serbian Nationalist Gavrilo Princip.

His murder escalated already existing tensions between nations until it exploded into an all out war across Europe that lasted until 1918.

But did this young man, at the mere age of 19, really single handedly start an entire World War or were the foundations already in place long before and they were merely waiting for the right catalyst to explode?

What was the main reason that World War 1 and World War 2 took place?

Or the Napoleonic Wars a century prior in 1803?

The fundamental issue of the 20th Century that directly led to the two World Wars is really quite simple if you really get to the core of things: The British Empire was the most powerful nation on the planet, and Germany, the up and coming empire, wanted to take its place.

A little more than 100 years ago, the exact same thing happened: The British Empire was number one. And France, the up and comer, wanted to take its place as the Hegemon of the world.

This leads us to the second immutable law of history:

2. Whenever an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as the international hegemon, the end result is almost always War.

This observation was originally made over 2400 years ago by ancient Athenian historian and military general Thucydides, who stated that the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta was unavoidable because Athens threatened to replace Sparta as the strongest city-state in Greece and Sparta would not allow that to happen.

Body:

With this in mind, you really don’t have to overthink things or make wild extrapolations to see which two countries will be the main antagonists in the next great war.

Just like everyone with a brain (and even people without) could see that war between the British Empire and Germany was inevitable…

You’d have to be very naïve to believe that The United States of America (the current International Hegemon) and The People’s Republic of China (the rising power) aren’t headed for a collision course within the next 20-30 years if not sooner.

This is something that is so deeply ingrained in our DNA, no amount of Geneva conventions or talks of peace can get rid of it. Look at every social species of mammals on the planet. Does the Alpha monkey ever give up his position without a fight when a younger competitor threatens to take his place? Does a champion boxer or UFC fighter ever just say to his up and coming opponent, “here you go, you can have my title”? (actually, you never know nowadays once the younger generations get into sports lmao…)

What Will War In The 21st Century Look Like?

The 21st century will not be the first century in human history to go by without any large scale warfare between major powers. Violent Warfare will always be a part of the human experience because Wars determine who gets to write the rules and who is forced to just follow along like a Beta.

There is an argument that the possibility of Mutually Assured Destruction, like what happened between the United States and The Soviet Union will prevent another world war between the US and China due to the threat of nuclear weapons. Because no one wants to just destroy each other and allow a third party to rise up (the way Germany and Britain did in the two world wars).

Unfortunately, as we mentioned in the previous post, Tech Knights and Machine Emperors, you don’t need a large population to wage war anymore. Mutually assured destruction only works when you still need large populations and infrastructure to wage combined arms war.

But it falls apart when you consider that the most crucial unit in modern armed conflict will be semi-autonomous to fully autonomous Drones, and the people who develop them.

When the Drone Swarm is the new Cavalry unit, you simply don't need a big population to wage war successfully anymore, in fact it’s hard to argue that it’s even beneficial in any way and not just a huge drag on resources.

It might not seem reasonable right now but you have to keep in mind that within the next 10-20 years, it’s going to be possible for small groups of people to live independently from the rest of society. Advances in Machine Learning mean that you’ll have machines to grow and harvest crops, prepare food, produce goods in factories, and 3D print all necessities for daily life. For all intensive purposes, there simply won’t be a need for large amounts of labor anymore.

And just like the bloody Civil War in the United States was a preview for things to come in World War I, the recent Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is a preview of what things will look like the next world war. Watch how Armenian soldiers tried to use 20th century tactics in the 21st century and got blown apart by drones before they could even react.

Using tanks and conventional artillery in the next world war is like trying to use cavalry to fight machine guns, like they did in Last Samurai. It just looks foolish.

You can also see glimpses of the next conflict in the recent drone strikes against Saudi oil facilities where just a group of 10 drones set fire to 2 huge oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia.

And this is only the destructive potential with human controlled drones…

Just like the highly accurate rifle showed the potential of defensive trenches during the Civil War long before the machine gun became a thing, the drones today are only a glimpse of what’s to come once they become more and more automated and they are able to hit targets without a human operator.

Is there an example from history that we can learn from to discover what happened the last time a relatively small group of self-sufficient people encountered large populations that they had no use for?

Let’s take a look at Genghis Khan and his Mongol Horde. About 800 years ago, Cavalry was overwhelming the most important unit on any battlefield. And the Mongols were the culture that best utilized cavalry. Every soldier was on horseback and took 4-6 other horses with them on campaigns so when one horse got tired, they could rotate onto another horse.

They were almost always outnumbered by their enemies but it didn’t matter because every soldier trained from birth to fight on horseback while their opponents only had a few specialized units. In short, they were the perfect army for the time since everything about their culture was optimized for producing the best cavalry.

Their diet consisted of horsemeat, horse milk, yogurt, and other dairy products. In other words, they had plenty of protein to in their diet to make quality gains compared to their civilized neighbors who mainly ate rice and wheat. They were pretty much entirely self sufficient and didn’t need huge supply chains or merchants for day to day life like the inhabitants of the walled cities they conquered.

The end result was loss of life equivalent to an asteroid collision – a 10% drop in the total population. 40 million people died out of a total of 400 million worldwide.

An example of Mongol brutality was the conquest of Baghdad, where they engaged in a mass orgy of rape and murder and systematically slaughtered 200,000 to 1,000,000 inhabitants. These guys were so troll they would pretend to ride away from the city and allow enough time for inhabitants who had been hiding to come out and mourn the dead, only to swoop back in and kill the remainder

In a world where ISIS is still chopping off people’s heads, is it really too much of a stretch to predict that when a large portion of your population is useless in an armed conflict, nuclear war isn’t that big of a deal for the people in charge?

Another problem with Mutually Assured Destruction is that China only has 320 nuclear warheads compared to about 6185 nukes from The United States. Even if the nature of war today is the exact same as it was in World War II, 320 nukes is not enough to cripple the combat capacity of the United States, especially since not all of them will get through

I also advise anyone who thinks we’ve “progressed” as a species and are more peaceful now to go south of the border and go see for yourself what the Cartels are doing in neighboring Mexico. Instead of nailing people to wooden crosses like the Romans did, now they just torture people, then cook and eat the remains. How’s that for progress?

What Will War Between The US And China Look Like?

So now that we know The United States and China will almost certainly have a major war in the 21st century, the next question is what will the war look like?

Usually, the rising country will avoid direct military confrontation until they have an “ace up their sleeve”, some powerful secret weapon or new tactic to overwhelm the defenses of the dominant hegemon.

Germany had the Schlieffen Plan in World War 1, and Blitzkrieg in World War 2. While the Schlieffen Plan failed and led to a stalemate on the Western front, Blitzkrieg was remarkably successful in the opening stages of World War 2 because The German Military used rapid overwhelming force concentration of tanks, aircraft, and motorized infantry to break through and encircle defenders before they know what’s going on.

Funny thing is Blitzkrieg wasn’t even invented by Germany, it was actually first laid out by Russian military theorist Mikhail Tukhachevsky. This goes to show that merely discovering something first doesn’t really mean too much. It’s all about who is decisive enough to actually commit sound theory into practice.

Albert Einstein was trained by German Universities and published his findings about the potential energy of an Atom Bomb in Europe, but it was the United States that actually hard committed to The Manhattan Project and specifically took steps to prevent Germany’s nuclear program from making similar progress.

The point is, the rising nation won’t really commit to a war until they have some kind of “new discovery” that will lead to tremendous success in the opening phases. They didn’t get to the number 2 position by being stupid enough to just declare war on the number one nation without honestly believing they have a good chance at victory.

Looking at the situation on the South China Sea, the most likely battleground of the next great war, you can safely predict that World War III will not start until after China acquires the ability to sink US Aircraft Carriers.

It’s actually much harder to sink an Aircraft carrier than you think. For something the size of a small city, they move remarkably fast at over 35 mph. And they’re so big that even a direct hit from a missile won’t really do enough damage to sink it.

China is trying their best to come up with carrier killing DF-21 missiles, but this is still something that the US military can prepare for, which is why war hasn’t broken out yet. They’re not yet confident in their ability to inflict devastating blows on the US Military in the opening salvos of the war yet.

Nevertheless, as we can see in a recent Wargame exercise known as the Millennium Challenge, it is possible to overwhelm US Navy vessels with simple manned suicide speedboats, since boats carry far greater payloads of explosives than missiles.

Now imagine what happens when you don’t have hundreds of small fast speedboats, but tens of thousands of nimble, fast suicide speedboat drone swarms with machine learning optimization to find the best routes to their targets without getting destroyed

Not to mention torpedo drones carrying Nuclear payloads. Doesn’t matter how big you make the carrier, it’s not surviving a direct hit from a nuke.

Therefore, it’s safe to say that when War between the US and China breaks out, the last place on Earth you want to be is on an American Aircraft Carrier, the heart of US force projection and the first target in any war with a near peer competitor.

That being said, unlike the 20th Century, where it was actually very hard to predict who would come out on top in both World Wars, this one is relatively easy to predict.

Who Will Win?

If you think that early Chinese successes like sinking an American Aircraft Carrier will mean they win the war and force American forces to withdraw, then you only have to look back in recent history to see why that’s wrong.

Unlike smaller regional conflicts like the Vietnam War, initial setbacks don’t really mean too much when the issue at hand is not whether you win or lose a proxy war but whether your system or the enemy’s dominates the world.

Did the Union Forces simply give up and leave the Confederacy alone after a disastrous set of early defeats in the American Civil War?

Did the British Empire simply give up when Germany occupied all of France and launched daily air raids on their homes?

There will always be dissenters and weak people who want to sue for peace in every situation but no great empire was ever forged by weak men. At the end of the day, when it comes to international hegemony, it will be a war to the bitter end, not just a small regional conflict.

That being said, the smart prediction to make is that World War III will actually be shorter than most people expect. Why? Because China’s overall situation is far worse than 20th Century Germany’s…

In the first half of the 20th Century, the German economy was so big that it was bigger than Britain and all her colonies combined…

They had a bigger population than Britain, back when population was important in a war.

They had a better science program that produced more Nobel Laureates than any other nation.

They undoubtedly had the best land army and the second best navy.

They had a strong military tradition that extended back hundreds of years, with the most competent military leadership of any major power…

And they still lost.

Twice.

The problem is that in a war between two Superpowers, virtually all useful allies will side with the reigning international Hegemon and not the challenger.

If the reigning hegemon is competent at all, then by the time war breaks out, they already have a large network of strategic alliances with other powerful nations that are extremely difficult for any newcomer to break into.

This is just the natural order of things. Think about how difficult it is to climb up in an established male hierarchy from the bottom, when all alliances are with the alpha male of the group, who tends to be a reasonable guy with reasonable rules for everyone to follow or else he wouldn’t have gotten to that position.

And unlike small groups where you can just start your own group or join another, we don’t have the means to just move to another planet, you have to fight for power in the same group (Earth).

Sure, Germany at the height of its power could beat Britain and maybe even France 1v1 or 1v2. But could they beat Britain, France, Russia, and The United States 1v4 (since no useful allies)?

A lot of people predict that China and Russia will be allies when war breaks out but there’s no reason for Russia to get involved when they can just sit back and watch the fireworks while potentially eliminating a top geopolitical contender in the region.

Russian and Chinese interests do NOT align. There is a long history of border disputes between the two regions stretching all the way back to Mongol times...

There’s simply very little to gain and everything to lose if they were to join the Chinese side.

In fact, it’s not hard to imagine a War in which it’s The US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, The UK, and Germany vs just China and North Korea with the rest of the countries remaining neutral.

There will be initial successes for sure on the Chinese side but as the Chinese themselves are well aware, it’s far easier to copy something that works than invent it.

By 1944, The Soviet Union and The US had both learned enough from observing Germany that they created their own combined arms Blitzkrieg tactics and launched their own offensives against German defenders. What one man can invent, another can discover.

Any initial success with Drone Swarms will be more than made up for in the overwhelming advantages America has in all other areas, the same way the Union eventually won against the Confederacy, or the Allies won against the Axis.

New defenses against drones will be invented. Maybe microwave weapons to fry drone swarms mid-air. Maybe cyber warfare and hacking to jam their communications. Maybe even weird unexpected disguises specifically designed to fool AI.

All we know for sure is that new weapons of war will develop, both offensive and defensive. Nobody really knows what they will look like but it is a smart bet to assume that the new technologies will probably be more offensive than defensive in nature, since it’s always easier to just throw a thousand suicide drones at a target than defend against them.

This favors the United States even more, since China will be playing defense in their home and it will be possible to wipe out Chinese drone production throughout the course of the war but not the other way around.

And last but not least, simple geography favors the United States and its allies a lot more than China.

Every time you look at maps of World War II, you can clearly see that it's much harder for Germany to win because they are geographically Flanked on both sides by strong enemies! And that's exactly what happened as the war went on. They could never concentrate all their resources on one front, it was always split between the East and The West.

Same thing with France in the Napoleonic Wars. Doesn't matter how brilliant Napoleon Bonaparte was, you are at an innate disadvantage from the very beginning because you are naturally flanked by all enemies.

Look at a Current map of US Military Bases. Notice how China is already Flanked by the US and its allies before the war even begins.

They will almost certainly have to deal with rebellions in the East from unfriendly Muslims and possibly even Tibetans in their own Xinjiang and Tibet provinces.

And, to make things worse, their Geography is even worse than Germany's or France's. Almost every Chinese city is concentrated entirely along the coast. That makes them vulnerable to US airpower and naval bombardment before we even take Drone Swarms into account...

At least the British and their allies had to painstakingly fight their way into German territory by ground and couldn't just destroy them with Naval bombardment at the start.

If China's leadership were smart enough, they would move all crucial military production infrastructure deep into the heart of China like the Soviet Union did under Josef Stalin because he had enough foresight to prepare in advance for a German Invasion of Russia. But even then, that just allows the US and its allies to capture every important Chinese city from the very beginning.

I simply don't see any reasonable way for China to win this war, even if the opening rounds go their way.

Their military leadership will make the same mistake as every other would be conqueror by saying America is weak willed, we just kill enough US soldiers and the people back home will give up and return home, etc... The same thing the Japanese said before they attacked Pearl Harbor.

Another bold prediction: The war will probably end a lot quicker than most people expect because unlike 20th Century Germany, China will most likely go into the war with ONLY economic and population superiority over the United States and nothing else. Not more than 1 year max.

Fantastic new technologies will develop, as they always do in periods of major warfare and the world will be full of new ideas just waiting to be exploited by ambitious people once the war ends. Technologies we couldn’t even dream of today. Picture fully automated construction to set up a drone factory without any human labor, which can be adapted to build houses after the war or just about anything else you want.

Where do you want to be when war breaks out?

That depends on what you want.

If you want to just have a family and live a normal life, it might be time to get out of the country and head to a smaller country like New Zealand or Switzerland if you’re liberal; Moldova or Czech Republic for conservatives. Any country that won’t get caught in the crossfire between Superpowers… The more insignificant your country is in terms of military power (while still being a decent place to live) the better.

If you want to use the war to profit, the best place to be is Silicon Valley, the center of American tech. Second best place is Wall Street, which will be financing the companies there, structuring acquisition deals, etc.

The people in charge know the value of these places so they will invest heavy defenses around those areas to protect them against any foreign offensive threats, including sneak attack drone swarms if possible.

Or they may decide that defense is impossible and just evacuate the critical companies into underground bunkers but whatever happens, you need to develop useful skills and get in on the ground floor of one of these tech companies, preferably one with military applications.

1300 years ago, Charles “The Hammer” Martel smashed Islamic armies invading France with a professional fighting force of mounted knights.

His military success was enough to convince the ordinary people to give up their freedom to support a professional class of mounted warriors.

The freedom that the people gave up would become the basis of the feudal system. The peasants would work hard to provide the resources to mount knights and armored soldiers capable of protecting them. The knights and professional solders would in turn provide protection to the peasants.

If you want to be the modern day equivalent of the early mounted warrior who fought alongside Charles “The Hammer” Martel, then you need to be where the action is – which is Silicon Valley. If you absolutely can’t get in on the ground floor of a Silicon Valley company, other promising tech hubs are most likely going to be Austin, TX or Boston, MA.

What Should I Invest In?

There will be another opportunity to make money before everyone else catches on. Firms like Renaissance Capital are already using Math nerds to design trading algorithms to make unprecedented profits. Their flagship Medallion fund has produced more than 66% annualized returns over a 30-year span from 1988 to 2018.

There will be other companies, some start up, some more established that will specialize in using machine learning to make profits. If you played your cards right by getting into Silicon Valley or Wall Street early before the war starts, you should be able to use your connections to get your money in with the best AI optimized funds before the competition catches up.

Who fucking knows if Real Estate will still be valuable if swarms of machines can just build houses without any human labor? Who knows whether oil will still be valuable in the future? The point being, you don’t have to worry about these things if you’re not already specialized to do so. Let the experts handle it and simply reap the rewards.

If you did things right, you'll have connections that will allow you get in early on promising AI based hedge funds. The future stock market will simply have too many patterns to keep track of and sheer amounts of raw data to be a worthwhile endeavor for human minds alone without the assistance of AI.

You can also get an advantage over your competition by hiring Chinese Americans (or other Asians in general because most Americans can't tell the difference) for your company at a time when other people are not.

A lot of talented Chinese Americans will be let go from their jobs or face massive amounts of discrimination from society once War between the US and China breaks out.

If you can provide talented them with a safe, meritocratic environment for them to work in, they will naturally want to work very hard to make you rich.

Meritocracy, not Political Correctness, is key. No person with any kind of talent wants to feel like other people are forced to walk on eggshells all the time in order to avoid "RAYCISM" and that they had to use unfair advantages to get to their current position.

But everyone wants to feel like they "won" in a level playing field and it was their natural talent and hard work that won out over others.

Once the war is over, you should be one of the first ones going over to China to scout talent.

The US and Soviet Union entered the space race against each other largely off the backs of captured nazi scientists.

Another promising area that you should get into if it floats your boat is tech education. Right now, the current school curriculum is not optimized for future wars, just like a classical Roman education is not as useful in warfare compared to a medieval education that taught boys how to ride when they’re 3 years old.

We’re not teaching kids how to program at age 3 yet, at least not on any kind of scale. But the lessons from the Next Great War will show the need for specialized tech education, training geniuses from a young age to become the Knights of the future.

The rest, nobody really knows. Maybe you can try getting a loan from a Chinese bank and then defaulting after the War (lmao) but there’s no guarantee the US government won’t honor existing debts as a sign of good will to the Chinese people once the Communist Party is removed from power.

Either way, it's wise to coordinate all these efforts from another country or at the very least have a solid SHIT HITS THE FAN contingency plan. Because shit will indeed hit the fan once China is thoroughly defeated.

The Future Of Politics

It’s hard to see a scenario where an actual legitimate Representative Democracy remains the main form of government. Maybe they’ll have a semblance of democracy with 2 parties that seemingly oppose each other but both choke on Tech Company Dick, but the ordinary person will have even less power to influence elections (if there’s even going to be any) than they do now.

The people in charge might be nice enough to provide shitty but still slightly useful jobs to the masses, like identifying hills in pictures and other Captcha type problems to help optimize machine learning programs…

Best case scenario, they may decide everyone deserves a minimum standard of living and set up free housing or Universal Basic Income, but my guess is they might just decide to hell with it, let’s just take all the hot girls for ourselves and kill everyone else like the Mongols did.

When a group of people doesn’t have any value to the people in power, the end result is usually not good. Remember, 10% of the population died during the Mongol Conquests. Even today, 0.5% or 16 million people have Genghis Khan’s genes.

The people in charge of the tech companies today tend to be kind of beta but I suspect that will change in the near future, once the military importance of tech is revealed more and more.

We’re going to have people that 1000 years ago would have been in the Merchant Class or the Artisan Class, way too beta to be a warrior, now suddenly thrust into the position of being the new armored knights of the battlefield.

That probably won’t last for too long. Either these beta tech guys will quickly learn to become alpha by virtue of the new power they hold or they will be taken over by someone who is – a future King or Lord.

Anyone who thinks a United States victory in the next great war means "The Good Guys Win Hooray!" is going to be in for quite a surprise when their girlfriend/wife gets taken from them and raped by the local asshole with a drone swarm.

But life is gonna be just fine for hot girls. They'll always have inherent value, even in the new era. They'll have no problem sharing an alpha, in fact they'd even prefer that to being forced to settle down with a beta.

Because at the end of the day:

Human Nature Never Changes...

It's not my intent to frighten you in any way. I'm merely urging you to prepare yourself for the upcoming chaos ahead.

This won't be like the end of World War II, where American victory meant a new golden age of wealth and prosperity.

Sure everyone will unite together to defeat China, but once that external threat is gone, the only thing left is to turn on each other.

Is it a mere coincidence that as soon as the Soviet Union fell in 1989, politics in America immediately became more polarized as the Democrats and Republicans went from working together to defeat the Soviet Union to fighting each other instead?

Not to mention, the Elites and the people who will rise up to become Elites in the next decade will not have much empathy for the ordinary American. It's not like World War II where rich and poor alike fought alongside each other in the war.

Think about how disgusting you, a Redpiller, find the average Beta male in society today...

Now think about how successful young people today see their average beta male counterparts. All they deal with is crab bucket mentality trying to pull them down with shame tactics... getting harassed by Social Justice Warriors if they let one true unfiltered thought slip from their mouth...

Lazy people complaining about life all the time (I'M 2 STOOPID TO MAKE MONEY or I'M 2 UGLY TO GET WIMINZ)...

I'm not kidding. Talk to young people that have "made it" today on an honest level, get past the social filters and superficial bullshit and you will see that most of them have nothing but contempt for ordinary people.

It honestly might be a good idea to Leave Your Country if you don't want to be destroyed in the opening chaos of the internal power struggles ahead.

Maybe we should all be praying for an Alien invasion of the planet.

At least then, people would actually come together again to try to defeat this external threat.

Because as can be found time and time again throughout history...

Human Nature Never Changes...