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Actually divorce rate is around 94% after 10 years nowadays in USA

July 3, 2017


This site was linked in Turd Flinging Monkey 420 show (around 22 min https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNlLm1rlW-0), and I don't know how reliable it is, but they have a lot different kind of statistics and it has hundreds of thousands mentions on google.

Manosphere and other sites keep posting divorce rate like 50% but they give simply yearly scale like 1000 new marriaged 500 divorces so 50% divorce rate. Same with things like births/deaths scenarios as mortality rate.

But 94% seems quite reliable. There are a lot of kind of things involved like before end of cold war marriages were way more stable, economy, mortality rates, momentum of divorce rate, how many new marriages/divorces, politics, if there was a child and a lot of other aspects.

I don't have much time but if you consider some basic model like 4000 marriages at begining 2000+ new marriages -1000 divorces it's going to be like this:

year1: 1000/4000 chance of getting divorced 25% (you are in 4000 begining, 1000 divorces)

year2: 1000/5000 chance of getting divorced (4000 - 1000divorces +2000new = 5000 marriages now, 1000 new divorces) 20%

year3: 1000/6000


year10: 1000/13000

Chance after 10 years that your marriage survives: (1-1/4) (1-1/5) ... (1- 1/13) = 3/4 4/5 ... * 12/13 = 3/13 = 23%

It was just some basic model with fixed numbers to give some understanding. But if the divorce rate is increasing, fewer people are getting married plus other factors 6% might be reasonable number.


Edit: these numbers are clearly wrong. Even in my argument setting 4000 as initial population is so wrong. I tried higher numbers at first but the results were clearly against that 94%, so without much thinking I lowered it. WHen you set 20000 as initial you get something close to (95/100)^10 = 60% chances that your marriage will survive.

Someone posted somewhere this more reliable - https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr049.pdf - page 7

Probability that a first marriage will remain intact after 10 years, among women 15-44 years of age, from 2006-2010:

Asian: 83%

Hispanic: 73%

White: 68%

Black: 56%


Edit2: I'm glad anyway I posted it, because I would live with misconception.

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Post Information
Title Actually divorce rate is around 94% after 10 years nowadays in USA
Author bad_guy_steve
Upvotes 77
Comments 22
Date July 3, 2017 1:02 AM UTC (4 years ago)
Subreddit /r/MGTOW
Archive Link https://theredarchive.com/r/MGTOW/actually-divorce-rate-is-around-94-after-10-years.576601
Original Link https://old.reddit.com/r/MGTOW/comments/6kwuaz/actually_divorce_rate_is_around_94_after_10_years/
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