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Actually divorce rate is around 94% after 10 years nowadays in USA

bad_guy_steve
July 3, 2017
77 upvotes
/r/MGTOW

http://www.statisticbrain.com/marriage-statistics/

This site was linked in Turd Flinging Monkey 420 show (around 22 min https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNlLm1rlW-0), and I don't know how reliable it is, but they have a lot different kind of statistics and it has hundreds of thousands mentions on google.

Manosphere and other sites keep posting divorce rate like 50% but they give simply yearly scale like 1000 new marriaged 500 divorces so 50% divorce rate. Same with things like births/deaths scenarios as mortality rate.

But 94% seems quite reliable. There are a lot of kind of things involved like before end of cold war marriages were way more stable, economy, mortality rates, momentum of divorce rate, how many new marriages/divorces, politics, if there was a child and a lot of other aspects.

I don't have much time but if you consider some basic model like 4000 marriages at begining 2000+ new marriages -1000 divorces it's going to be like this:

year1: 1000/4000 chance of getting divorced 25% (you are in 4000 begining, 1000 divorces)

year2: 1000/5000 chance of getting divorced (4000 - 1000divorces +2000new = 5000 marriages now, 1000 new divorces) 20%

year3: 1000/6000

...

year10: 1000/13000

Chance after 10 years that your marriage survives: (1-1/4) (1-1/5) ... (1- 1/13) = 3/4 4/5 ... * 12/13 = 3/13 = 23%

It was just some basic model with fixed numbers to give some understanding. But if the divorce rate is increasing, fewer people are getting married plus other factors 6% might be reasonable number.

...

Edit: these numbers are clearly wrong. Even in my argument setting 4000 as initial population is so wrong. I tried higher numbers at first but the results were clearly against that 94%, so without much thinking I lowered it. WHen you set 20000 as initial you get something close to (95/100)^10 = 60% chances that your marriage will survive.

Someone posted somewhere this more reliable - https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr049.pdf - page 7

Probability that a first marriage will remain intact after 10 years, among women 15-44 years of age, from 2006-2010:

Asian: 83%

Hispanic: 73%

White: 68%

Black: 56%

...

Edit2: I'm glad anyway I posted it, because I would live with misconception.

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Post Information
Title Actually divorce rate is around 94% after 10 years nowadays in USA
Author bad_guy_steve
Upvotes 77
Comments 22
Date July 3, 2017 1:02 AM UTC (6 years ago)
Subreddit /r/MGTOW
Archive Link https://theredarchive.com/r/MGTOW/actually-divorce-rate-is-around-94-after-10-years.576601
https://theredarchive.com/post/576601
Original Link https://old.reddit.com/r/MGTOW/comments/6kwuaz/actually_divorce_rate_is_around_94_after_10_years/
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Comments

[–]Pope_Lucious38 points39 points  (5 children) | Copy Link

Nah these stats are bullshit homie. I saw the TFM video you referenced. It's incorrect. There are a lot of difficulties in calculating divorce rate but this is simply bullshit. The refined divorce rate is around 42-45% not factoring in separations.

[–]Poopy12412 points13 points  (0 children) | Copy Link

Thank goodness. Some common sense and not typical circlejerked studies.

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (2 children) | Copy Link

What divorce rate percentage would you get if you added the marriages where the females are balling Tyrone or Chad while beta hubby is out working his ass off? Probably 94%.

[–]TonyPajamas294 points5 points  (1 child) | Copy Link

Those don't count because beta hubby forgives and there's no divorce

[–]EuphemisticallyTrue0 points1 point  (0 children) | Copy Link

Here is a credible source that supports 40-50%. http://users.nber.org/~jwolfers/Papers/TrendsinMaritalStability.pdf

[–]UDT2214 points15 points  (0 children) | Copy Link

I don't think it's that high, but even at 50% it's not good risk for a man to take. And yes I'm divorced.

[–]QuarkGluonSoup3 points4 points  (11 children) | Copy Link

Once again, seek out the hard data! It's actually 36%. Quite disappointed in TFM for not following through on a source.

Then again, these kind of inflated numbers get people to watch his videos.

[–]Pope_Lucious2 points3 points  (6 children) | Copy Link

The 36% number is also a little skewed. That number is lifetime divorce from all marriages, including new ones which will end in divorce eventually. All mechanisms for calculating an accurate divorce rate have drawbacks. The best approximation (IMO) is around 42-44%.

[–]QuarkGluonSoup1 point2 points  (5 children) | Copy Link

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nsfg/key_statistics/d.htm

They've since updated to include the most recent data; it's now 36% for FIRST time marriages.

[–]Pope_Lucious1 point2 points  (4 children) | Copy Link

I don't understand. The table said 53% by 20 years (this was divorce, separation and death all included). Where is the 36% number from?

[–]QuarkGluonSoup0 points1 point  (3 children) | Copy Link

36% by 10 years.

[–]Pope_Lucious1 point2 points  (2 children) | Copy Link

But isn't the 53% by 20 years the more relevant stat?

[–]QuarkGluonSoup2 points3 points  (1 child) | Copy Link

Perhaps overall, however the OP only mentions the chances for divorce after 10 years. Figured I would keep it there.

[–]Pope_Lucious1 point2 points  (0 children) | Copy Link

Fair enough. Thanks for the stats.

[–]mrp_18440 points1 point  (2 children) | Copy Link

It sound right. Can you explain it to us?

[–]QuarkGluonSoup-1 points0 points  (1 child) | Copy Link

Seriously, just go to the CDC's NSFG page. There should be an alphabetical list on the left side; find the letter "D". Scroll down to find a nice table describing chances for disruption in first time marriages.

If that's not enough, you can actually go through all of the CDC's published studies involving divorce (as I have done) to come to the conclusion that Statistic Brain are lying. None of the studies done have numbers even breaking 55% for first time marriages. People who get married multiple times have a higher risk of getting divorced (if memory serves, up to almost 75% for third time marriages). Averaging all divorces ends up giving us the "standard" of 50% of all marriages ending in divorce.

Don't take my word for it, though. Really, seek it out for yourself. That's the only way you'll learn to not trust a site that doesn't even bother providing an actual link to where it procured it's data from.

[–]mrp_18441 point2 points  (0 children) | Copy Link

Marriage disruption

Marital disruption is defined as separation, divorce or death (rare for this age group)

Probability of first marriage disruption by duration of marriage among women 15-44 years of age: 2006-2010 2011-2015

By 5 years 20% 22%

By 10 years 32% 36%

By 15 years 40% 45%

By 20 years 48% 53%

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nsfg/key_statistics/d.htm

So it depends how long the marriage is. Many people would want a marriage to last 20 years or more. Based on their survey, only 47% have that.

So those are risky numbers. And the trend is up 5% in a 5 year survey period (48-53). If it continues that way, there is a possibility that there will be 73% that are disrupted in the next twenty years or only 27% not disrupted.

[–]EuphemisticallyTrue0 points1 point  (0 children) | Copy Link

Here is a credible source that shows 48% for older generations. http://users.nber.org/~jwolfers/Papers/TrendsinMaritalStability.pdf

[–]genesic1230 points1 point  (0 children) | Copy Link

Hold on the cdc stats are an approximation using a relatively small number of people.A disproportionate number of males and females,etc.

[–]MoronicBobbin0 points1 point  (0 children) | Copy Link

Think its safe to use the 50% figure. Then say half of the ones who stay married are miserable but stay together because of the finances (cheaper to keep her), kids (most men want to watch their kids grow up) etc. So I'd say statistically you have 25% chance or less of having a happy marriage.

[–]FreeManIsFrank0 points1 point  (0 children) | Copy Link

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr049.pdf

Interestingly, on page 8, figure 5, displays the probability of a marriage remaining intact based on education, illustrates that men with less than a high school diploma have the second highest chance (0.54) of having their marriage remain intact. Which by the way is equal to men with some college education. I figure it means those type of men tend to enter the workforce to support families, rather than focus on education.

[–]SnapshillBot-1 points0 points  (0 children) | Copy Link

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