This site was linked in Turd Flinging Monkey 420 show (around 22 min https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNlLm1rlW-0), and I don't know how reliable it is, but they have a lot different kind of statistics and it has hundreds of thousands mentions on google.
Manosphere and other sites keep posting divorce rate like 50% but they give simply yearly scale like 1000 new marriaged 500 divorces so 50% divorce rate. Same with things like births/deaths scenarios as mortality rate.
But 94% seems quite reliable. There are a lot of kind of things involved like before end of cold war marriages were way more stable, economy, mortality rates, momentum of divorce rate, how many new marriages/divorces, politics, if there was a child and a lot of other aspects.
I don't have much time but if you consider some basic model like 4000 marriages at begining 2000+ new marriages -1000 divorces it's going to be like this:
year1: 1000/4000 chance of getting divorced 25% (you are in 4000 begining, 1000 divorces)
year2: 1000/5000 chance of getting divorced (4000 - 1000divorces +2000new = 5000 marriages now, 1000 new divorces) 20%
Chance after 10 years that your marriage survives: (1-1/4) (1-1/5) ... (1- 1/13) = 3/4 4/5 ... * 12/13 = 3/13 = 23%
It was just some basic model with fixed numbers to give some understanding. But if the divorce rate is increasing, fewer people are getting married plus other factors 6% might be reasonable number.
Edit: these numbers are clearly wrong. Even in my argument setting 4000 as initial population is so wrong. I tried higher numbers at first but the results were clearly against that 94%, so without much thinking I lowered it. WHen you set 20000 as initial you get something close to (95/100)^10 = 60% chances that your marriage will survive.
Someone posted somewhere this more reliable - https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr049.pdf - page 7
Probability that a first marriage will remain intact after 10 years, among women 15-44 years of age, from 2006-2010:
Edit2: I'm glad anyway I posted it, because I would live with misconception.