Actually divorce rate is around 94% after 10 years nowadays in USA
77 upvotes | July 3, 2017 | by bad_guy_steve
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http://www.statisticbrain.com/marriage-statistics/

This site was linked in Turd Flinging Monkey 420 show (around 22 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNlLm1rlW-0), and I don't know how
reliable it is, but they have a lot different kind of statistics and
it has hundreds of thousands mentions on google.

Manosphere and other sites keep posting divorce rate like 50% but they
give simply yearly scale like 1000 new marriaged 500 divorces so 50%
divorce rate. Same with things like births/deaths scenarios as
mortality rate.

But 94% seems quite reliable. There are a lot of kind of things
involved like before end of cold war marriages were way more stable,
economy, mortality rates, momentum of divorce rate, how many new
marriages/divorces, politics, if there was a child and a lot of other
aspects.

I don't have much time but if you consider some basic model like 4000
marriages at begining 2000+ new marriages -1000 divorces it's going to
be like this:

year1: 1000/4000 chance of getting divorced 25% (you are in 4000
begining, 1000 divorces)

year2: 1000/5000 chance of getting divorced (4000 - 1000divorces
+2000new = 5000 marriages now, 1000 new divorces) 20%

year3: 1000/6000

...

year10: 1000/13000

Chance after 10 years that your marriage survives: (1-1/4) _ (1-1/5)
... _ (1- 1/13) = 3/4 _ 4/5 _ ... * 12/13 = 3/13 = 23%

It was just some basic model with fixed numbers to give some
understanding. But if the divorce rate is increasing, fewer people are
getting married plus other factors 6% might be reasonable number.

...

Edit: these numbers are clearly wrong. Even in my argument setting
4000 as initial population is so wrong. I tried higher numbers at
first but the results were clearly against that 94%, so without much
thinking I lowered it. WHen you set 20000 as initial you get something
close to (95/100)^10 = 60% chances that your marriage will survive.

Someone posted somewhere this more reliable -
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr049.pdf - page 7

Probability that a first marriage will remain intact after 10 years,
among women 15-44 years of age, from 2006-2010:

Asian: 83%

Hispanic: 73%

White: 68%

Black: 56%

...

Edit2: I'm glad anyway I posted it, because I would live with
misconception.

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