Summary

I've been recently looking into demographic trends for western nations, and, after doing a bit of analysis, what I found was absolutely shocking. All the western developed nations are currently undergoing an accelerated process of cultural implosion. People are dying much faster than they can be replaced by natural births, and the only way these countries can keep up their population levels is through immigration.

I'm going to present this situation with a simple case study based on the country of Germany. I've chosen Germany simply because I live there, and I'm more familiar with their situation, but the same logic can be applied to every other western nation, because they all have the same problem.

Gentlemen, brace yourselves, the numbers are coming.

Body

Germany currently has a population of 80 million people and the official fertility rate lies at 1.4 children per woman. Let's make a few simplifying assumptions. First, there is a 1:1 gender ratio. Out of the 80 million people, 40 million are women and 40 million are men. Second, all the 80 million people are culturally uniform, that is, they're all germans (in a cultural sense) or have been successfully germanized (adopted the german culture values). I know this is a gross oversimplification, given that there are currently more than 10 million people living in Germany that have been born outside the country, and, as anyone living here can obviously see, many of them have most certainly NOT adopted the values of german culture, but bear with me. Third, the "natives" do not reproduce with the immigrants - there are no mixed-culture children. Fourth, the fertility rate will stay constant at the level of 1.4. Fifth, the government will want to keep its population level stable at 80 million. And last, I will define the time length of a generation to be 40 years, based on an assumption that by age 40, on average, a woman would have given birth to all of her children, thus marking the start of a new generation.

With these in mind, let's run the calculations. The current generation (year 2015) will give birth to 56 million people (40 million women times 1.4 fertility rate = 56 million), and, under the assumption of gender parity, this means 28 million women and 28 million men. To keep the population stable at 80 million, the German government will have to import 24 million immigrants. Thus, by the time when the second generation will mature (year 2055), Germany will have 56 million natives and 24 million immigrants, or, in percentage, 70% natives and 30% immigrants.

The second generation of natives (year 2055) will give birth to 39.2 million people (28 million women times 1.4 fertility rate = 39.2 million), which means 19.6 million women and 19.6 million men. Again, to maintain the 80 million preferred population size, the German government will have to raise the number of immigrants to the level of 40.8 million. Thus, by the time when the third generation will mature (year 2095), Germany will have 39.2 million natives and 40.8 million immigrants, or, in percentage, 49% natives and 51% immigrants.

Note that already by the year 2095 (80 years from now), the "native" German people in the country will be a minority. But let's not stop here. I'm gonna skip the detailed calculations and just give you the projections:

  • Year 2135 - 27.4 million natives (34.3%) vs. 52.6 million immigrants (65.7%)
  • Year 2175 - 19.2 million natives (24%) vs 60.8 million immigrants (76%)
  • Year 2205 - 13.4 million natives (16.8%) vs 66.6 million immigrants (83.2%)

In 200 years from now, the number of german culture "natives" will have been reduced to a fragile minority of 16.8%, and, if you continue to run the calculations, you will notice that by the year 2415 (400 years from now), the Germans will but all have been driven into extinction inside their own country - 2.2 million out of the 80 million (2.8%).

Granted, things are probably not going to evolve exactly this way, because, after all, 400 years is a lot of time, and many things can happen in between. We could witness an improvement in fertility rates, triggered by a reversal of the majority culture to more conservative values, or, if the history is any lesson, we could even witness a violent pushback against the rising number of immigrants. Let's not forget that a mere 80 years ago the nazis were here in full power.

You might also object to my logic by asking so what? So what if the population will be increasingly dependent on immigrants, after all, we have the historical example of the United States and, despite that it is a country build almost exclusively by immigrants, it did a great job at achieving cultural unity, at least until recently. To which I would answer that things have greatly changed since the founding days.

First of all, most of the early immigrants came to America from western and northern Europe, so they were already more or less culturally similar, and it was easier for them to adopt a single set of cultural values. Nowadays, given that all the other european countries face the same kind of demographic issues, it is increasingly harder to attract immigrants from similar cultures, and therefore a country like Germany has to rely on people coming in from further away. Now, I know that the politically correct thing to say is that we are all equal, that race is a social construct, that we are one, that nothing else matters, bla bla bla, but, if you would open your eyes and actually look at reality of the situation, you will notice that race does matter, that the place of origin does matter, that people who are visibly different don't mingle with each other as easily as we would like them to: germans stick with the germans, europeans with europeans, turks with turks, arabs with arabs, asians with asians, africans with africans and so on, and, if we also take the US example into account, we have to admit that racial and cultural separation is still very much alive, and, for the foreseeable future, it will continue to be so, given that true evolutionary changes in human nature only happen once in every ten thousand of years or so.

Second of all, today we have the Internet and cheap and fast long distance air travel and the TV, and it is therefore much easier for people from far away to remain plugged in into their original culture. This was not the case in the good old days of the US. Once the early settlers stepped out of the transatlantic boat, all connections to the motherland were severed, and they were practically forced to become "american". Now, a person can hold on to his cultural identity indefinitely and there is nothing to stop him from raising his children the same way. We can see such an example with the 2nd and 3rd generation of turkish people, the children of the guest workers who immigrated in the 60s and 70s, who, despite being born in Germany and raised in Germany and educated in Germany, are still very much attached to their original turkish culture. They are in a very real sense more turkish than german, because, despite the fact that they have an automatic right to change nationality, a great many of them still voluntarily hold on to their turkish passports.

Lessons learned

There is a major push nowadays inside Germany for multiculturalism, for diversity, for social integration of all far and strange cultures, and I think I can understand now where this is all coming from. Many mainstream opinion leaders claim that multiculturalism is a great new step in our evolutionary history, that we humans finally managed to overcome our inherent and evil racist natures, that we have become tolerant and open minded and that everything is unicorns and rainbows. To which I would reply fuck you! we managed to overcome our racist natures, fuck the unicorns, fuck the rainbows, it is only 70 years ago that motherfuckers were gassing Jews in concentration camps by the showerloads.

No, multiculturalism has nothing to do with an evolution in human nature and in tolerance levels, it is only a short-sighted political answer to the above demographics problem. Multiculturalism was born out of pure necessity. If I can so easily run the numbers, then so can all the fancy-shmancy "think-thank" agencies, and I'm sure that these "super intellectuals" have properly informed the government on how fucked up the demographic situation really is. So, the government pushes the multiculturalism equality doctrine down people's throats because it must. Soon enough, multiculturalism will be an undeniable street reality, for there will be less and less german people, and more and more weird people running around, and if the government fails to indoctrinate the young in the spirit of equality and diversity and all that bullshit, people from the coming generations will inevitably succumb to their natures and be at each other's necks. I wonder how long can indoctrination hold the human nature at bay?