As I posted last week, I very strongly believe that some very turbulent times are coming for the US and the world as a whole. There are massive points of instability world wide that have wide ranging effects on massive numbers of people, and the historical forces that have countered those instabilities are fading. One way or another, the world is going to seek a new equilibrium, and getting there isn’t likely to be pretty.

The post prompted the following comment from Simon Grey:

“Either way, the transition is likely to be shocking, jarring and painful.”

And there are going to be an unfortunately large number of people unprepared for it.

When I realized that my response to this would get rather involved, I decided to save it for its own post. The problem is, even for those of us who see it coming, what do you do about it?

The reason that’s a difficult problem is because of the deeper problem underlying it. I have no doubt that a readjustment is coming. But what form, exactly, is the readjustment going to take? Many of the points of instability are widely discussed on various blogs. But each point brings its own theory about exactly what is coming. Different hypotheses include:

  • An international crisis, possibly including something on the order of another world war. I talked about this possibility myself in the aforementioned post, but I’m not alone in bringing it up. Events across the Middle East are certainly setting the stage for it.
  • Massive economic upheaval. Anybody who’s lived through the Great Recession (ie, all of us) can certainly identify with that. Our economy seems to have somewhat stabilized for the moment, but it hasn’t stabilized in a particularly good spot – and it’s still got some big vulnerabilities in it – across the short, medium, and long term. More on this later this week.
  • Huge shifts in social and cultural institutions. This is already happening. As has been noted in many other places, the MRA community is getting the word out and it’s starting to have an effect. It’s especially hitting the youngsters of the “aught’s” generation. My wife, for example, a member of that generation was who originally pointed me toward The Misandry Bubble (Note: Chrome’s spell checker still doesn’t recognize the word misandry). A friend of hers, also of that generation, told us the other day, “I wasn’t misogynistic [Chrome does recognize that word...] until I went to college.” The pendulum is getting ready to swing the other way.
  • Some combination of the above. Personally, I think this is most likely. Look back through history and it’s fairly clear that all of these things tend to happen at once. See the economic collapses that led to the first world war – or the Great Depression and the social changes it wrought across Europe that brought us the second.

Figuring out which combination is coming, however, isn’t easy. And even if you could, just preparing for any single one of these isn’t easy.

For example: economic collapse. A lot of longstanding assumptions about the economy are hitting their breaking point. The Fed is dangerously pumping lots and lots of money into the economy, we have a lot of major banks that are still in much bigger danger than they seem, and the US government is running debt and deficit levels that make me wonder if they’re trying to bring about an economic apocalypse. What do you invest in if all of the traditionally “safe” investments are the very ones that are in danger?

How do you prepare for a world war? I’m fortunate enough that I’m no longer within draft age and my son is currently far too young to worry about it. But if we manage to paper over the problems for another decade and a half (which is entirely possible) that changes.

How do you prepare for it if all the rules that you’ve planned your life around might be about to change in a massive social upheaval? Lord knows what that is likely to bring.

Well, there are a few things you can do – things that apply to all of the above circumstances, and that won’t make you seem (or feel) like you’re completely paranoid.

Basic disaster preparedness.

Really, we all should be doing some of this anyway. You never know when the next major natural disaster could strike. Around the coast you have hurricane problems. In California it’s earthquakes, Hawaii has volcanoes, etc. We live in Tornado Alley, and as I write this tornadoes (plural) have been sighted in the county I live in and we’re under tornado warning until this evening.

This isn’t all that hard to prepare for. Know what natural disasters are likely for your area, and prepare your home for it. Tornadoes are the big thing here, so you want a strong frame construction (brick if you can get it), strong doorways, and a basement or storm shelter if you can. A home on a higher elevation to help guard against flooding is also good, since rain usually comes with the tornadoes.

If you live in an earthquake zone, of course, that would be totally different. But I’m not an expert on that, so I’ll just say find out what you can do to prepare your home. Same for hurricanes or volcanoes. Learn and prepare.

For any of the above disasters, though, it’s a good idea to keep some basic supplies on hand. A few days worth of bottled water is good (around here you can get it for $0.69 a gallon at the grocery stores – I’d aim for at least a few gallons per person in your home). You should also have some non-perishable food (canned is best – the cans themselves will withstand darn near anything) for a few days. Keep some blankets handy, including something like a fleece, wool, or a “space blanket” that’s not going to lose all heat retention if it’s wet. Flashlights, spare batteries, candles, and matches are good. Natural disasters often knock out the utilities for hours or even days. Some kind of fuel powered camp stove or grill will give you something to cook on in that event. If you’ve got somewhere generally disaster-proof to store it, a gas or charcoal grill (provided you keep enough fuel on hand for it) can serve double duty on those great summer cookout holidays.

If you feel like going one step further, the next items I’d recommend are a gas generator (with enough gas on hand to power it for a while) and some guns. Yes, I count guns among disaster preparedness. Did you hear about the violence after hurricane Katrina? Or what about in the case of social upheaval? I remember the Rodney King riots. If you’re the only family in your area that’s prepared, you’d better believe that somebody out there will try to take your supplies from you if they think they can.

However, if you choose to have guns: get some training. Learn gun safety, store them safely, learn to shoot (buying them and letting them sit in the closet for years won’t help you a lot in the event you need to use them), etc. While you’re at it, learn to hunt. Hunting is legal in all 50 US states (though it’s much easier in rural states such as here in the south where it’s still common). In a protracted crisis, it might just make the difference between going hungry for a while or not. And you can get some kinds of meat for your family that you otherwise can’t buy (venison, etc).

Economic disaster planning

Preparing economically is a lot tougher. Traditionally, putting your money in “safe” investments means losing out on a lot of potential gains – and these days, I don’t even trust the safe investments. I have little confidence in a bank account or in savings bonds, traditionally the safest investments you can make. I have no confidence in the long term outlook for the housing market (more on that later this week). And I’m highly concerned about inflation in the medium term (just one of many reasons that bank accounts and savings bonds might not be as safe as they’ve always been believed to be), so even just hoarding cash literally under the mattress isn’t as safe as it might be.

The approach I’ve decided to take is to “invest” my money in physical assets that I can personally defend (with the aforementioned guns, if I have to). Keep as much of your stuff paid off as possible – including, if you can, your main home and your vehicles. On both counts, aim for practicality over extravagance and buy less than you can afford.

Social preparedness

Get to know your neighbors. It’s hard in this day and age. Even if you try, your neighbors will probably be resistant. They’ll want to stay inside and watch reality TV instead. Make the effort. It will pay off in bad times.

Get closer to your family, even the really annoying ones. If things get really bad, they’re the ones who will stand by you the most, even if it doesn’t seem like it. Blood ties are the strongest – they always have been and always will be.

Make connections in your community – at work, at your children’s school. Get involved with a church if you’re not already (and if you can find one you can stomach – a hard thing these days). The stronger our community ties are, the better we’ll manage if things really get tough.

Have you noticed the theme here? Make connections with people. It’s hard to do in this day and age, but that just makes it even more critical. Get to know other people, but most of all make sure that they know you.

Don’t become a paranoid wingnut

You don’t need to, really. At least, not until it’s fairly obvious what’s coming and when. Most of the above is stuff that will help you even if no disasters at all ever come. It’s cheap, it’s relatively easy, you don’t have to make a show of any of it (unless you want to show off that shotgun to your teenage daughter’s would-be suiters) and it will help you through a large variety of bad times. My wife and I are in the process of implementing more or less everything on this list, and I wish I’d started some of them a little sooner.

But it’s never too late. As I said, most of it’s cheap and the most expensive parts (guns, grills and camp stoves) might just give you new hobbies anyway – and they’re not really that expensive either, if you don’t go crazy.