Hardly a week goes by these days without the lame-stream media trumpeting some measure which indicates that marriage as a social institution continues to crumble. The latest “big scary factoid” (HT to one of the Spearhead’s commenters for that great turn of phrase) is an article by Hope Yen being distributed by the Associate Press titled “Four in 10 say marriage is becoming obsolete.”
Is marriage becoming obsolete?
As families gather for Thanksgiving this year, nearly one in three American children is living with a parent who is divorced, separated or never-married. More people are accepting the view that wedding bells aren’t needed to have a family.
A study by the Pew Research Center, in association with Time magazine, highlights rapidly changing notions of the American family. And the Census Bureau, too, is planning to incorporate broader definitions of family when measuring poverty, a shift caused partly by recent jumps in unmarried couples living together.
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About 29 percent of children under 18 now live with a parent or parents who are unwed or no longer married, a fivefold increase from 1960, according to the Pew report being released Thursday.
… about 39 percent of Americans said marriage was becoming obsolete. And that sentiment follows U.S. census data released in September that showed marriages hit an all-time low of 52 percent for adults 18 and over.
In 1978, just 28 percent believed marriage was becoming obsolete.
While a change of just 11% over 22 years may not seem that huge to some people, the strength of the language used – “obsolete”, as in outmoded, old-fashioned, no longer relevant – really does indicate a seismic-level shift away from what most people believed 50 years ago. Interestingly, the 40% figure tracks fairly well with the percentage of children born outside of marriage. The fundamental definition of not just “marriage”, but the term “family” itself is undergoing a profound change as the behavior of millions of people changes.
As with all statistics, averages across large numbers of people mask the fact that the changes are more significant among some demographics than others. Much has been made of the black/white divide when it comes to marriage and having children outside of marriage. The marriage rates for African Americans of both sexes have plunged more than for whites, but the trend downward has been consistent for all groups.
Here is a chart I snagged from Dalrock’s post “Driving a stake in the heart of the US marriage strike myth” with two baselines added.
The percentage of people currently married for the group with the highest rate – white men – as of 2009 has dropped slightly below the rate for the group with the lowest rate in 1960 – black women, while the drop in rates for black folks of both sexes has been larger than for their white counterparts. The change has been so profound in the black community that among younger blacks the sentiment seems to be that “Marriage is for White People.”
Some of the findings from the poll shown in this graph were what one might expect – the percentages who believe marriage is obsolete went down as age went up, were higher for blacks than for whites, went up as income or education level went down, and were predictably higher for people who were cohabiting than for married people. But, there was one result so surprising that I have to wonder if it is a case of mislabeling – conservatives were more likely to take a dim view of the future of marriage than liberals were, 42% vs 38%. Another finding which surprised me is nearly one out of every 3 married people – 31% – considered the institution obsolete.
A lot of so-called “MRAs” tend to focus on the legal issues, and not be as concerned with attitudes and behavior. While the legal climate toward men and fathers is incredibly punitive, at the same time giving women license to divorce their husbands for the incredible crime of not keeping her ‘gina tingling, it is more the loss of social controls and social pressure to inhibit destructive behaviors which has caused so many people to take an increasingly dim view of an institution which was clearly the norm during the time when most of us grew up.
While things may not be quite as bleak as the picture painted by Charles Martel in “The End of Marriage”, one would have to be extremely dedicated to the ostrich strategy of burying one’s head in the sand to continue to ignore and deny what are some very clear and unmistakable trends. And, the fact that the youngest demographic – historically the least likely to be married – hold the greatest skepticism toward marriage raises the question of whether that attitude will prevail throughout their entire adult lives and be reflected in their behavior. Perhaps the current generation coming into the marriage years will have the attitude “Marriage is for Older People”, or perhaps just ”Marriage is for Other People.”
There is not much reason to believe that current trends will do anything but continue, and marriage rates continue to fall and more and more people begin to see marriage as little more than one among many options, in the absence of any counter-forces against it. Normally, when market share for some product begins to fall, “investors” in the product begin to look at why fewer people are buying that product. However, the strategy pursued by the Marriage Cheerleaders so far has seemed limited to badgering and harassing unmarried people. I think the consistent drop in marriage rates is clear testament to the failure of this strategy.
