While writing about hate crime prosecutions in the UK, which are nearing 100,000, it occurred to me that mentally ill, retarded and alcoholic people are probably vastly overrepresented among hate criminals. Most people, whether they agree with the prevailing political climate or not, have enough self-control to keep their thoughts to themselves if they know that they might violate protocol. However, crazy people, drunks and not-so-bright people often have a hard time doing this.

So when I saw on the news that Mitchell Taylor, a 32-year-old Seattle man, was arrested for making threats against Seattle’s gay mayor and our socialist councilwoman Sawant, I suspected that he’d turn out to have some mental issues. According to the defense attorney, he has aspergers and hasn’t been taking his meds, but I don’t think aspergers calls for medication, so he’s probably prone to psychotic episodes. After checking his facebook page, I noticed that he quotes Satan, and he made references to hell in his threats, telling Mayor Murray to “meet Harvey Milk.” He also wrote “death to socialist councilmember,” and made some antifeminist statements along similar lines.

For these threats, posted under his name on his account, he has been jailed and is being held on $600,000 bail, which is what you might expect in a murder case. There was a case last summer in which a young man was arrested in Texas for a similar indiscretion, and his bail was set at $500,000, so this isn’t unprecedented, but sometimes I wonder what is the real point behind these arrests and the enormous bail. Is it deterrence, to show people who might really be thinking about assassinating gay mayors and socialist city councilwomen that the police are looking for them, or is it a real fear that people like Mr. Taylor will actually act on their Facebook posts? If it’s the former, it might make some sense, but then it simply raises the stakes, but if the latter I wonder how our officials could be so credulous. As far as I know, nobody has ever followed through on an assassination or act of terrorism posted to their Facebook page. There is, however, a third possibility: the judge wants to force the guy to undergo a mental evaluation and thereby prevent him from accessing weapons (civil commitment makes people ineligible for firearms possession in Washington state).

Not long ago, a man did attempt to commit a real terrorist act in a Seattle gay club. He tried to start a fire in the club on New Years’ Eve, and if it had worked lots of people – hundreds, possibly – could have died. I’m actually quite surprised it didn’t make the national news. Fortunately, someone managed to stamp it out before it flared up, but the arsonist remains at large. This may have something to do with the high bail set in Mr. Taylor’s case. The man who set the fire could also have been mentally disturbed, but there’s no evidence (as of yet) that anyone made any threats before the incident.

Unfortunately, I think we’re headed toward a time where these kinds of things will become more common. When you introduce more stressors to society people start to act out. First, it’s the mentally ill, next those with impaired executive function, and finally the committed radical ideologues, who are most likely to successfully pull something off. However, as this happens, expect those who dissent – even peacefully – to be blamed for it. Merely holding views that run contrary to the party in power will be perceived as grounds for punishment. In fact, in comments under the Seattle Times article about Mitchell Taylor, a number of people seem to think he deserves jail time for being a “bigot” rather than for making illegal threats (which has not been established yet).

But all of this is a catalyst for change. Those in power up the ante, people begin to act out, and the authorities’ response to misbehavior is disproportionate, leading to even more social anxiety, followed by more repression in a cycle of radicalization. Ultimately, you end up with a great deal of political instability, a breakdown in social order, and then finally a sweeping political transition. The last time that happened in this country was the 1970s, when the new left, which came into its own after the 1968 Chicago DNC riots, started its march to power.

It’s impossible to predict the future, but I like to think we can get a rough idea of where things are going by using the past as a reference. If so, perhaps the ravings of lunatics are indeed a form of prophecy.