The state of the Evangelical church today was predicted back in 2009.

Readership: Christian Men
Theme: Christian Red Pill; Cracking Nuts; Cultural Surveys; 
Length: 1,700 words
Reading Time: 9 minutes

A reader asked me to review the life, work, and impact of Michael Spencer, AKA The Internet Monk.  So here it is.

About Michael Spencer

Dennis Michael Spencer (1956–2010), known online as the Internet Monk, was a Southern Baptist minister, campus chaplain, teacher, and influential Christian blogger.

Spencer was born in Kentucky and lived most of his life in Oneida, a small town in rural Kentucky. He graduated from Southern Baptist Theological Seminary in 1984 and served for decades in youth ministry, pastoring, and as a chaplain and teacher at a Christian school.

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Spencer described himself as a “post-Evangelical reformation Christian in search of a Jesus-shaped spirituality”.

In the early 2000s, after the 2000 elections, he launched the Internet Monk blog, where he critiqued American Evangelicalism with honesty, wit, and a deep love for a “Jesus-shaped spirituality”. His writings attracted hundreds of thousands of readers who appreciated his candid reflections on faith, his love for the church, and his willingness to expose shallowness, political idolatry, and “cultural captivity” (later termed “cultural convergence”) within Evangelicalism.

He authored the book Mere Churchianity (2010) before dying of cancer on April 5, 2010, at age 53.

Spencer’s 2009 Predictions on Evangelical Decline

In early 2009, Spencer published a three-post series on his blog titled “The Coming Evangelical Collapse.”

In these essays, Spencer forecasted a “major collapse of Evangelical Christianity” within 10 years (by 2019), followed by a slower erosion until Evangelicalism lost half its adherents within two generations.

Not long thereafter, on March 10, 2009, Spencer published a condensed treatise in a widely read op-ed, “The Coming Evangelical Collapse” in the Christian Science Monitor.

img-1783677258-6a50c14ac3b130.06409430.pngThe Internet Monk, Dennis Michael Spencer

Key Points of Spencer’s Predictions

Key elements of Spencer’s predictions included:

  1. Evangelicalism would be increasingly identified with the culture war and political conservatism, and would be viewed as a ‘toxic’ cultural threat.
  2. Evangelicals themselves would be viewed as ‘toxic’ curmudgeons due to their staunch alignment with political conservatism within the culture wars.
  3. The church would fail to address hegemonic cultural influences, offering only fragmented, tepid responses to secular issues and norms infiltrating the church.
  4. Evangelical churches will fail to disciple their young people and transmit authentic orthodox faith, leaving them ignorant, unprepared, and vulnerable to secularism.
  5. Christian education and moral principles, as well as “good works” ministries, would be viewed as “obstacles to progress” and would be ineffective against secularism, even within Bible Belt strongholds.
  6. Millions of evangelicals would quit the church; thousands of Christian media outlets, ministries, and schools would close or shrink dramatically.
  7. Mainline ‘High Church’-style congregations would die out, and churches would be dominated by megachurches driven by consumerism, maintaining cultural relevance, and therapeutic moralism.
  8. He anticipated the current growth in Catholic and Orthodox conversions, the eventual dominance of Charismatic-Pentecostal denominations within Evangelicalism, and that fragile new expressions of faith would appear (e.g. Radix Fidem).
  9. Funding would dry up due to shrinking congregations via attrition, i.e., conversions to Catholicism, Orthodoxy, “Nones”, or “Others”, and generous older patrons passing away.

In sum, Spencer predicted the disappearance of the church’s cultural preeminence, along with active-passive fundamentalism.  Denominations would shrink or vanish; only pragmatic megachurches would thrive.  The result would be a post-Evangelical landscape in a secular, anti-Christian West, with rising intolerance and hostile public policy against Christianity.  He called for a global “rescue mission” to reinforce Christianity, although he anticipated that little would be accomplished to this end.

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Fulfilled Predictions

The majority of Spencer’s predictions accelerated after 2009 and eventually came to fruition, although the scale and speed varied for each.

  1. Dominance of Megachurches and Pragmatism — Consumer-oriented, pragmatic, seeker-sensitive, therapeutic megachurches grew while smaller and denominational churches declined or closed their doors, exactly as Spencer described.  Rather than focusing on Biblical exegesis and the gospel, the emphasis shifted further toward ameliorating attrition, living an outwardly successful life (e.g. The Prosperity Gospel), maintaining cultural relevance, and self-help therapy (e.g. Moralistic Therapeutic Deism).  Twisted verbiage touts Biblical support for these ideals.
  2. Cultural / Political Identification — Evangelicals became even more tightly fused with the culture war and Conservative / Republican politics (e.g., opposition to same-sex marriage, Trump-era endorsements, etc.). By the 2016–2020 period, White evangelical support for Donald Trump was near-monolithic.
  3. Perceived Cultural Villainy — Evangelical alignment with Republican conservatism and culture-war issues (e.g., opposition to same-sex marriage, Trump-era endorsements) led to widespread perception of evangelicals as opposing civil rights, LGBTQ+ equality, and pluralism, and thus a “threat to cultural progress”.  Public policy and media increasingly framed evangelical positions as harmful to education, LGBTQ+ rights, and social cohesion, and a “threat to cultural progress”.
  4. Political / Cultural Backlash — Evangelical positions on sexuality, gender, and science were framed as bigoted or anti-science; ministries faced boycotts, lawsuits, and loss of cultural influence.
  5. The Failure to Transmit Faith, Youth Exodus, and the Loss of the Next Generation — Surveys showed massive disaffiliation among younger evangelicals raised in the movement, as Evangelical retention rates have plummeted.  Studies showed Millennials and especially Gen Z are leaving evangelicalism in record numbers, with many citing an inability to reconcile evangelical doctrine and politics with lived experience.  By the late 2010s, “Nones” (religiously unaffiliated) rose sharply among younger Americans.
  6. Church Closures and Institutional Decline — The Southern Baptist Convention (a proxy for broader evangelicalism) membership fell 10.1%, worship attendance 15.5%, and baptisms 32.6% from 2009 to 2019. Thousands of churches closed; denominations continued shrinking.  Many Christian schools and colleges struggled. Parachurch ministries contracted.  Denominational structures (especially in the SBC) faced membership losses, scandals, and schisms.
  7. Educational and Financial strain — Many parachurch ministries and schools faced budget crises.  Christian higher education saw enrollment drops and closures.
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Inaccurate Predictions

Not all of Spencer’s predictions materialized on the scale or timeline that he envisioned.

  1. While Spencer was correct in predicting an overall decline of Evangelical Protestantism, there was no sudden, statistically shocking “collapse” that halved Evangelicalism overnight before 2019.  The dam didn’t break until after the widespread closing of church doors during the pandemic restrictions (2020-2022).  (But would you penalize him for being off by 1-2 years, perhaps due to the grace of God’s forbearance?)
  2. While Evangelicalism certainly receded, Evangelical numbers held more steady than Mainline Protestantism, aided by higher birth rates in some subgroups, immigration (surprisingly), and the persistent growth of Charismatic / Pentecostal churches.
  3. Although cultural hostility towards Evangelicalism certainly increased and legal battles over religious liberty intensified, a large-scale, government organized, “anti-Christian” movement launching a dramatically hostile public policy and/or overt persecution of Evangelicals has not (as of yet) emerged in the U.S.
  4. Spencer predicted that Evangelicals would be stymied from performing “good works” in their ministries.  Although ministries have certainly been dampened in effectiveness overall, they have not been strategically prevented from outreach.  Many ministries adapted by softening distinctions or rebranding (which Spencer predicted).  Whether this move constitutes a “cultural compromise” is up for debate on a case-by-case basis.
  5. Funding did not universally “dry up”.  Some large Christian media networks and megachurches continued to thrive financially.

Spencer himself cautioned he was “not a prophet” and expected some of his predictions to miss the mark — a disclaimer that leads me to believe he truly was a prophet.

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The Overall Impact of Spencer’s Predictions

Spencer’s 2009 predictions had a crashing impact on the awareness of Evangelicalism.  Spencer’s essays went viral, reshaping evangelical self-understanding. His predictions were discussed across Christianity Today, Patheos, Sojourners, and countless other blogs. (See links below under Related.)  These responses crystallized a growing sense of unease among thoughtful Evangelicals and post-Evangelicals.  It prompted widespread reflection on why young people were leaving, why political entanglements damage one’s witness, and why megachurch pragmatism could not sustain faith. The articles catalyzed post-Evangelical and “Jesus-shaped spirituality” conversations and influenced leaders like Mark Galli and Rod Dreher.

Spencer’s work remains a landmark prophecy for anyone studying American Christianity’s 21st century shifts. His warning that Evangelicalism risked becoming “a house deserted of half its occupants” continues to frame data on declining affiliation.

Conclusions

Michael Spencer anticipated the attrition of the church and its waning influence, the rise of the ‘Nones’, the continued politicization of faith, and the hollowing-out of institutional evangelicalism. By 2020, former Christianity Today editor Mark Galli cited surveys showing evangelicals had largely forgotten core theological commitments and acknowledged that Spencer was “more right than he was wrong”.  Even where his timeline was off, the trajectory Spencer outlined has largely held true: Evangelicalism is smaller, more culturally marginalized, more politically tribal, and less able to retain its children in the faith than it was in 2009.

Michael Spencer insisted he was not a prophet, just an unusually perceptive diagnostician.  Nevertheless, his writings have turned out to be astonishingly prophetic.  His warnings about evangelicalism’s cultural captivity / convergence, shallow discipleship, and demographic fragility continue to resonate more than a decade and a half later, especially when read alongside the detailed marital and familial autopsies offered by writers like Dalrock, which I’ll cover in the next post.

That’s Amazing!  Praise the Lord Almighty!

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