Here’s some updated statistics on the Asian demographic crisis I discussed last week. The most recent figures are now showing 123 live male births for every 100 female births in China, even worse than the numbers I was reporting. Also of note:
The question left open by economists is what the consequences will be of such a large surplus of young men. History offers a disquieting answer. According to the German scholar Gunnar Heinsohn, European imperial expansion after 1500 was the result of a male “youth bulge.” Japan’s imperial expansion after 1914 was the result of a similar youth bulge, Heinsohn argues. During the Cold War, it was youth-bulge countries—Algeria, El Salvador, and Lebanon—that saw the worst civil wars and revolutions. Heinsohn has also linked the recent rise of Islamist extremism in countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan to an Islamic youth bulge. Political scientists Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer warn that China and India could be the next countries to overdose on testosterone.
This isn’t the first time in history this has happened. But if the problem is resolved peacefully, to my knowledge it really would be the first time. I’m not betting on it.
