Joe ESQ: NFL Draft 2012 Top 10
Joe’s Top 10 Players Overall
The main complaint about my prior draft posts was that I was playing the result; using past drafts as examples, which anyone could do. While I disagree, with a week prior to the draft I’m putting this out to let you know where I stand about this year’s prospects. Below is my top 10, with a short explanation regarding each. Below that are my rankings at each position, along with a few guys who are over/underrated. The baseline used for the over/underrated assessment is that general consensus between Mel Kiper and Todd McShay, who somehow manage to pretty much agree (within a spot or two on their lists) about practically everyone.
My lists are based on what I actually observed while these guys were in college; not combine numbers or Wonderlick scores, which I don’t even pay attention to. Note that this is not a ranking of college players. This is a ranking of prospects based on their college performance and how I believe, based on observing those performances, they will perform on the next level. Note also that my list is based on quality, not importance of position.
Now, without further ado, here’s this year’s list-
Unlike most of the experts, I don’t believe this is a particularly strong draft. There isn’t an offensive player as good as Can Newton or a defensive player as good as N. Suh. There may be more depth at some positions, however.
1. Mark Barron- S- Alabama 
Safeties never get considered for the top pick, and I’ve never understood why. First, it’s a hugely important position on defense. It’s not a coincidence that the two best defenses over the last decade (Baltimore and Pitt) happen to have the two best safeties in football. There’s nobody who changes what an opposing offense tries to do more than Ed Reed. Second, elite safeties are difficult to find. It’s not like running back, where you can stick some undrafted guy back there and it might work out, or wide receiver, where you can trade for or sign an elite guy any offseason if you’re willing to spend money. The position requires not only athleticism, but smarts and a strong work ethic. You have to know opposing offenses well enough to read plays instantly. You can’t just remember a play or focus on covering one person.
Barron’s not as good as Ed Reed, particularly in coverage. (It should be noted that, in my opinion, no football player I’ve ever seen is as good as Ed Reed.) Still, I see some similarities between the two. Both stood out while playing on great defenses. (Alabama and Miami). Both were the unquestioned leaders of their defenses. Both were great tacklers who could hit. Both would consistently prevent the big play, and both would make the game changing pick when their team needed it. Barron will instantly be one of the three or four best players at his position in the entire league. He’ll make any defense he’s on significantly better. Barron is the best player in this draft.
2. Robert Griffin- QB- Baylor 
Griffin is an exceptional player. Although it’s tempted to credit his offense’s success at Baylor to Art Briles’ system, I can’t because fast defenses usually slow gimmicky offenses like Baylor’s, but none of the defenses Baylor faced were able to stop or really even slow Baylor last year. Griffin’s offense, which didn’t include any other superstar players, lit up everyone. Not only that, but it did so while failing to turn the ball over. A low interception total can sometimes be overstated because it results from a QB being too conservative; throwing check-downs and out-of-bounds. That was not the case with Griffin. He threw few interceptions despite aggressively throwing the ball downfield, which is a testament to his accuracy and his ability to read defenses. His athleticism is a plus, but even without it Griffin would be a legit prospect.
3. Michael Floyd- WR- Notre Dame.
This was a tough call between Blackmon (No. 7) and Floyd. Blackmon was more consistent and productive in college, and that was not simply the result of playing in a better offense with a better quarterback. For that reason, I have no gripe with people who rate Blackmon higher. The reason I disagree has to do with sheer athleticism. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a guy with greater athleticism at wide receiver (size, speed, strength, the ability to catch the ball over defenders) than Floyd. He’s right up there with Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson in that regard. Had we seen him playing with a better quarterback, I think his athleticism would have been even more noticeable. At his best, I think Floyd can be a better player than Blackmon and just about every other receiver in the league. Whether the best WR can be as valuable as a great QB or DT is a question best left for another day though.
4. Andrew Luck- QB- Stanford
I’ve outlined some of my concerns with Luck in a previous post “Joe ESQ Responds to Criticism and Say Andrew Luck is Overrated”. The main one is the fact that Jim Harbaugh’s offense made Alex Smith look like an all-star, so how do we know it didn’t do the same to Luck? Yeah, the guy looked great, but a lot of QB’s look great when their team runs the ball well and allows most of their throws to come on play action. Can Luck consistently move the ball down the field when opposing teams know he has to? Can he read defenses well enough to avoid costly interceptions (like against USC in ’11 and Cal in ’09), and make progressions beyond his primary and check down receivers? I think he can. I just don’t think it’s a sure thing.
Luck is extremely athletic. I was in the stands at the 2012 (2011 season) Orange Bowl. He had us in awe on one play in which he scrambled to the left and threw deep and accurate while getting hit and falling backward. He’s tall, fast and has a great arm. By all accounts, he’s an intelligent guy. Stanford had more success with Luck than it had in years prior to his arrival.
5. Devon Still- DT- Penn St.
Still was the best player on the best defense in the country. I know, the stats say Alabama was the best, but there are a number of factors involved in that. Penn State played much better offenses than Alabama; its own offense was so terrible that it had to stay on the field way too much, usually in lousy field position; and the Sandusky scandal was one hell of a distraction late the year. The fact is that great offenses, offenses with above average offensive lines, couldn’t run the ball or score on Penn State largely because of Still. He was a force. He’ll continue to be a force on the next level. How a DT from a horrible Memphis defense is considered better than him is beyond me (Poe).
6. Justin Blackmon- WR- Oklahoma St.
Blackmon was unstoppable at Oklahoma State. Teams knew they were going to him, and they went to him anyway. He’s tall and fast; basically everything you want in a receiver. As stated above, I would have no gripe with him being ranked above Floyd.
7. Melvin Ingram- DE- S. Carolina
Ingram was a great DE, wreaking havoc on opposing offenses. I have two concerns with him though. First, playing with other good defensive lineman and a good defensive backfield tends to make a defensive end look better. Second, he was going against lousy offenses for the most part this year– lines that couldn’t block and QB’s who didn’t know what they were doing.
8. Vontaze Burfict- MLB- Arizona State
This is where my list really starts to drastically differ with those of the experts. Burfict didn’t have a great season this year. He supposedly has character issues. What I know is, when healthy and motivated, Burfict was the most dominant player on the field. He was Ray Lewis-esq in that he was involved in every play. Sideline-to-sideline, at the line of scrimmage or 20 yards downfield; Burfeit was where the ball was wherever the ball was. I don’t know his 40 team, but on the field he’s fast. He hits like a freight train. He knows where the ball is going. He intimidates an opponent and makes them take notice of where he is. I think he’s worth whatever risk comes with him.
9. Janoris Jenkins- CB- North Alabama/Florida
Jenkins also may have character problems, but he’s one hell of a cover corner. He was a key player on the 2008 UF national championship team that won the title with its defense. He more than held his own against A.J. Green and Jones, two other top-10 picks. He even played well in 2010 when the rest of his defense was terrible. If other people like Claiborne here instead, I wouldn’t have much of a gripe. I’d go with Jenkins though.
10. Lamar Miller- RB- Miami 
Miller did have some nagging injuries this year, and as a result his numbers weren’t great. When healthy though, Miller’s the total package. He’s fast enough to outrun anyone, has patience and vision, and has the ability to break tackles and make people miss. Miami’s offense was great with him and lousy without him, and he played his best games against the best defenses he faced. Trent Richardson was a better college running back, but he lacks the speed to do well in the pros, as he struggled against defenses like Penn St. and LSU. There’s a reason Saban replaced him in the title game once they passed midfield. Richardson looks like a mediocre pro RB at best..
* Joe ESQ Notes: I watched a few USC games, but never focused on Kahil, so I’m not qualified to say whether and where he should be on this list
NFL Draft 2012 Rankings (By Position)
Below are my pre-draft rankings at each position, which lists the top 5 along with the names of guys I think are over or underrated. The people ranked may be over or underrated as well, but the people listed in that category only consist of those who are not mentioned in the rankings. The overrated/underrated label is based on how they’re evaluated by McShay/Kiper, who almost always agree with each other, give or take one or two slots on each’s list.
Watching as a fan, you tend to notice the skill positioned guys more than offensive lineman, who are only noticed at the extremes– when they make an exceptionally great or a terrible play. For that reason, more guys will be named at the skill positions. I also don’t include guys I’ve never seen play.
There is a lot that I can say about each of these selections, but writing about each would take too long and people wouldn’t want to read that much anyway. I’ll gladly talk and/or debate about any position or player in the comments. Thanks in advance for your input.
NFL Draft 2012 Rankings- QB
1. Robert Griffin- Baylor
2. Andrew Luck- Stanford
3. Brandon Weeden- Oklahoma State
4. Kellen Moore- Boise State
5. Ryan Tannehill- Texas A&M
Overrated: (again, this does not include guys listed in the top 5 even though some may be overrated.
Nick Foles- Arizona
Kirk Cousins- Michigan State
Properly rated:
Ryan Lindley – San Diego State
Underrated:
Russell Wilson- NC St.
Jacory Harris- Miami
Guy I wouldn’t let play on my team for even if he paid me:
John Brantley- Florida
NFL Draft 2012 Rankings- RB
1. Lamar Miller- Miami
2. Doug Martin- Boise St.
3. Chris Polk- Washington
4. Trent Richardson- Alabama
5. Dan Herron- Ohio State
Overrated:
David Wilson- Virginia Tech
Ronnie Hillman- San Diego State
Properly rated:
Isaiah Pead- Cincinnati
LaMichael James- Oregon
Bernard Pierce- Temple
Underrated:
Adonis Thomas- Toledo
Guy I wouldn’t let play on my team even if he paid me:
Chris Rainey- Florida
NFL Draft 2012 Rankings- WR
1. Michael Floyd- Notre Dame
2. Justin Blackmon- Oklahoma State
3. Stephen Hill- Georgia Tech
4. Greg Childs- Arkansas
5. Nick Toon- Wisconsin
Overrated:
Alshon Jeffry- South Carolina
Properly rated:
Tommy Streeter- Miami
TY Hilton- FIU
Underrated
Patrick Edwards- Houston
Eric Page- Toledo
Guy I wouldn’t let play on my team even if he paid me: (two are equally horrible)
DeVier Posey- Ohio State
Travis Benjamin- Miami
NFL Draft 2012 Rankings- TE-
With regard to TE and OL, I honestly haven’t paid enough attention to everyone to rank them numerically, instead I’ll just list who I think is overrated/underrated generally. As I said above, you tend to only notice these guys at the extremes—when they make a great or terrible play.
Overrated
Coby Fleener- Stanford
Chase Ford- Miami
Underrated
Ladarius Green- Louisiana-Lafayette
NFL Draft 2012 Rankings- OL
Overrated
Riley Reiff- Iowa
Brandon Washington- Miami
Underated
Kevin Zeitler- Wisconsin
Peter Konz- Wisconsin
NFL Draft 2012 Rankings- DE
1. Melvin Ingram- South Carolina
2. Vinny Curry- Marshall
3. Whitney Merceilus- Illinois
4. Andre Branch- Clemson
5. Quinton Couples- NC
Overrated:
Frank Alexander- Oklahoma
Properly rated:
Shea McClellin- Boise St.
Underrated
Bruce Irvin- West Virginia
Olivier Vernon- Miami
Jack Crawford- Penn St.
NFL Draft 2012 Rankings- DT
1. Devon Still- Penn St.
2. Fletcher Cox- Miss. St.
3. Michael Brockers- LSU
4. Billy Wynn- Boise St.
5. Jared Crick- Nebraska
Overrated:
Dontari Poe- Memphis
Marcus Forston- Miami
Jaye Howard- Florida
Properly rated:
Jerel Worthy- Michigan State
Josh Chapman- Alabama
Underrated:
Ishmaa’ily Kitchen- Kent St.
John Hughes- Cincinnati
NFL Draft 2012 Rankings- ILB
1. Vontaze Burfict- Arizona State
2. Don’t’a Hightower- Alabama
3. Sean Spence- Miami
4. Luke Kuechly- Boston College
5. Tank Carder- TCU
Overrated:
Mychal Kendricks- Cal
Properly rated:
Najee Goode- West Virginia
Underrated
Josh Linam- UCF
NFL Draft 2012 Rankings- OLB
1. Courtney Upshaw- Alabama
2. Demario Davis- Arkansas State
3. Zach Brown- North Carolina
NFL Draft 2012 Rankings- CB
1. Janoris Jenkins- North Alabama/Florida
2. Morris Claiborne- LSU
3. Jayron Hosley- Virginia Tech
4. Stephen Gilmore- South Carolina
5. Brandon Boykin- Georgia
Overrated:
Dre Kirkpatrick- Alabama
Jamell Fleming- Oklahoma
Wade Trevin- Arizona
Properly rated:
Chase Minnifield- UVA
Underrated:
De’Quan Menzie- Alabama
Donnie Fletcher- BC
Josh Robinson- UCF
NFL Draft 2012 Rankings- S
1. Mark Barron- Alabama
2. George Iloka- Boise St.
3. Johnny Thomas- Oklahoma St.
4. Brandon Taylor- LSU
5. Harrison Smith – ND
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