Social thinker and occasional Spearhead commenter The Fifth Horseman (AKA The Futurist) predicted a few years ago that misandry would come to a head around the year 2020, after which “The Misandry Bubble” would pop.

TFH focused on sexual dynamics and the escalating oppression of men, which, although not the entire picture, is a very important factor in national and global affairs.

Now, academic Peter Turchin, a proponent of “cliodynamics,” is predicting the convergence of a number of trends around the same time, with possibly revolutionary implications.

Turchin has identified rising inequality as a destabilizing factor that could lead to social disruption and a chaotic environment, similar to the ominous years of the early 20th century when the US was threatened with violent revolution. I recall watching the film J. Edgar early last year, and although I was aware of how tense the atmosphere was in the 1920s, the movie was a good reminder that terrorism and social strife are nothing new in the US. According to Turchin, we are facing a repeat of that era if something isn’t done quickly about the stark economic inequality that has emerged since 1980.

Both TFH’s article and Turchin’s are long reads, but they both conclude that by 2020 the situation in the US will be profoundly different from what most of us were familiar with as children.

From Turchin:

Three years ago I published a short article in the science journal Nature. I pointed out that several leading indicators of political instability look set to peak around 2020. In other words, we are rapidly approaching a historical cusp, at which the US will be particularly vulnerable to violent upheaval. This prediction is not a ‘prophecy’. I don’t believe that disaster is pre-ordained, no matter what we do. On the contrary, if we understand the causes, we have a chance to prevent it from happening.

From TFH:

The title of this article is not the ‘Misandry Crisis’ or even ‘The War on Misandry’. It is ‘The Misandry Bubble’, because the forces that will ensure the demise of the present mistreatment of men are already on the horizon. So allow me to introduce the Four Horsemen of Male Emancipation as a coalesence of many of the forces we have discussed, which will shred the present, unsustainable hierarchal order by 2020…