This seemed relevant here given the increasing media articles about “missing men” and decreasing fertility rates. Written by economists using data on college students followed throughout their 20s it evaluates the gap between the number of children people expect to have and the number they actually have. Typically this gap is attributed to men (not enough good ones, unwilling to commit), income (not enough money, govt doesnt spend enough money or taxes too much), or some toxic substance in the environment (MAHA type ideas). I’ll summarize the main points:
- almost the entire gap is due to marrying later than expected
- attractive women married when they expected and had as many children as they expected
- women overestimate their attractiveness
- less attractive women married later than they expected and these missing years explained why they had less children than expected
- women’s GPA was also related to marriage probability suggesting that it is either a secondary factor for partner choice or enabled the women to be more realistic about viable partners
- other personality traits, as rated by women, had no effect
- the same effects did not appear for men, the only finding being that attractive men married later
In summary the birth gap is mainly caused by less attractive women having unrealistic expectations about partners. They overestimate their own attractiveness, and the social status of having a degree (as opposed to actually being intelligent and diligent, which leads to a high GPA), and therefore delay marriage.
To be clear this isn’t an explanation of the overall decrease in fertility, which seems to be a natural consequence of increased wealth. But it does explain the difference between the number of children people say they want and the number they actually have.
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