(Supplementary Reading Provided at the Bottom)

Abstract

Whilst we make assumptions in the red pill economy, you are doomed operationally if you do not exercise competency by thoroughly studying your market and adjusting your assumptions. Rigorous enquiry by unpacking assumptions that create bias is a pre-requisite to win by ‘beating the market’ or at least hedge against potential loss.

Part 1: Assumptions

Introduction

TRP explores key fundamental concepts for sexual strategy and human interaction (The Wall, SMV, Frame etc ). In order to effectively explore Redpill theories , some key assumptions are made. The Wall is the age at which the returns to scale or the marginal product of a females SMV starts to decrease. It is often assumed that 30 is the mean (geometric/non-geometric mean) age that the wall starts to take effect. With examples, a framework for an Intrinsic Valuation of the wall will be given, paying special attention to the role of assumptions and adjustments to be made in order to survive in the wider RP economy.

Assumptions in the Red Pill Economy

In a RedPill culture that is outcome driven and outcome independent, it’s a Cardinal Error to not unpack the age ’30’ which is a domain assumption subject to many situational factors primarily location. Whilst economist Milton Friedman(1953) pointed out the necessity for 'significant theories' to be proven by ‘unrealistic assumptions’, Alan Musgrave (1981) pointed the necessity to class assumptions (domain, negligibility, heuristic - see reading list) to achieve accuracy in testing economic models.

The Red Pill is a theory that is applied to markets (sexual, societal, professional) in effect, creating an economy that has losers and winners. To ignore assumptions is to pre-ordain failure. To carefully recognize and adjust assumptions is at most to ensure victory and at the least -minimize loss.

Quote Col. Hadfield: “The Moral of the story: part of preparing for the worst is keeping in mind that your sim(simulation) itself may be based on the wrong assumptions, in which case you’ll draw the wrong, perfectly polished conlusions”.

Part 2: A Model for Intrinsic Valuation

The Wall Valuation

To arrive at the age 30, several variables subject to their influence in your location are included in the valuation.

The valuation for the market that I operate in takes into account these variables that form assumptions for my Red Pill economy.

Example of Variables used to Derive the Wall Value

i) Physical Appeal - aesthetics and fitness.

ii) Market Mean age of marrying. - at what age are participants expected to be married if at all.

iii) Career emphasis. - Is a career emphasized?

iv) Viability of living an independent life. - nightlife etc

v) Education involvement. - Do participants enroll in higher/tertiary education.

vi) Traditional influence on lifestyle and outlook on life. religion etc

NB: I did not account for personality & interests. Suitors in my market usually shape this (Concept of Frame).

An Intrinsic market value may be derived from these variables.

Intrinsic Valuation Report

The intrinsic valuation for the wall given my constraints and assumptions is 26. At this age diminishing returns to scale take place. Though girls physically are still appealing at 26, the demand significantly decreases due to upward pressure from girls aged 20-23 vying for the attention of suitable suitors aged, 27-33. The upward pressure is a result of low education involvement due to tradition, an environment that’s not conducive for an independent life, low nightlife appeal, environment where women are not career driven thus lowering the age at which to find a suitable long term partner.

Market Dynamics

  1. Marriage is still viable in my economy due to unchanged traditional perceptions.

  2. Women aged 26 onwards without a solid partner in life are treated with considerable caution especially in the absence of tertiary educational involvement.

  3. Unaware men (Beta) are often caught by this age group. 27 is the most common age for ‘mistaken pregnancy’. Coincidence or market mechanics (the wall)? You decide.

  4. Men who choose to be naive and don’t take the time and competency to study their market, end up divorced (Division of Assets) by age 36-38.

Hypothetical Implications - Like Banks, they get Bailed Out

In my economy, the 28 year old, after divorcing (Division of Assets) the unaware 36 - 38 year old man, has high social mobility and can almost relocate and integrate anywhere usually picking the developed world with her newly acquired resources. Because of her social mobility and entrance into a new market where 28 still carries a relatively high value, she automatically gains an exponential increase in value increasing her useful lifespan. Whilst she may have her merits to successfully pull this off, the man’s demerits are the Mans' failure to competently study the market he inhabits. The implications stay with the man as he will continually pay for his incompetency (alimony). In a nutshell, Incompetent men create winners out of potential losers - Bailout packages.

Conclusion Absolute freedom without responsibility is an illusion. Freedom to some degree can be attained by those who are competent and alert. To expect freedom by default, is a disastrous (heuristic) assumption on its own. Develop a culture of working out the economics of your own market - demand & supply, consumer choice – tastes, preferences etc and carefully set the assumptions of your economic model for optimal results in the outcome dependent Red Pill economy.

Reminder: This is my economy where incompetent men provide bailouts to potential losers on one end and on the other, competent & alert men create a strong family unit with a suitable partner. Some would agree this is the best thing systemically and some would disagree (Like all bailouts). Im more interested to know what happens in some other people’s economies and their models for intrinsic valuation.

Supplementary Reading

  1. Unreal Assumptions in Economic Theory - Alan Musgrave (1981)

  2. An Astronauts Guide to Life on Earth - Col. Chris Hadfield.

Especially

Ch 3 “The Power of Negative Thinking”.

Ch 4 ''Sweat the small stuff”