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Look at the Survival Probabilities of Marriage and Cohabitation. Yeah...

JPDG

May 16, 2016

21 upvotes

/r/MGTOW

http://www.statisticbrain.com/marriage-statistics/

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Title	Look at the Survival Probabilities of Marriage and Cohabitation. Yeah...
Author	JPDG
Upvotes	21
Comments	3
Date	May 16, 2016 3:26 PM UTC (10 years ago)
Subreddit	Posted in /r/MGTOW
Original Link	https://old.reddit.com/r/MGTOW/comments/4jlo5l/look_at_the_survival_probabilities_of_marriage/
Archive Link	https://theredarchive.com/r/MGTOW/look-at-the-survival-probabilities-of-marriage-and.634769 https://theredarchive.com/post/634769

Comments

[–]bigeyedbunny3 points4 points5 points 10 years ago (0 children) | Copy Link

[+][deleted] 10 years ago* (1 child) | Copy Link

[deleted]

[–]thrownaway_MGTOW2 points3 points4 points 10 years ago (0 children) | Copy Link

I'm a little confused by these statistics and think they might be misrepresented unless i'm reading them wrong

It suggests that a mere 1 in 12 married couples with a kid born 8+ months after marriage will keep going until their 10th anniversary.

You ARE reading that wrong.

What the data states is regarding "First Marriage Survival" -- i.e. what is now only half-jokingly being referred to as "starter marriages".

Keep in mind that the majority of men (somewhere around 2/3) who DO get divorced get remarried (that is a "SECOND marriage" or even a "THIRD marriage") within 5 years of the finalization of their previous divorce -- and that the of the remaining 1/3 (who are still "not [yet] remarried" at that 5 year mark) the majority of them are often already "cohabiting" and will eventually "remarry".

And while "anecdote" isn't the same as statistical data... I know a LOT of people (fro my own early "GenX" generation and younger) who had "starter" marriages that lasted only a few short years (some with kids, some without), they divorced, then the guy hooked up with some OTHER woman (who may or may not have already been married herself; may or may not already have children {either from the previous marriage or before/outside of it}) and then have kids with her some time thereafter.

Moreover, by definition, this data must be on people who got married AT LEAST 10 years ago -- anyone who was married within the past (post recession) decade must be excluded -- because while it is possible to know what percentage of those HAVE (already, in LESS than 10 years) divorced, until that 10th anniversary has been reached, it is impossible to know if it WILL be reached.

ALSO... keep in mind that if we begin with a SIMPLISTIC set of say three example couples, a Mr. A and his wife Mrs A^1, and a second couple Mr. B & Mrs B^1, and a like wise Mr. C & Mrs C¹ -- they all marry (first marriage), they couples A & B divorce (& "swap partners" remarry & STAY married)... the resulting statistic would be that only 1/3 of First marriages "survived."

Now, introduce a more complex & problematic (but also more realistic) scenario. Let's say we start with TEN couples. IN the first 4 couples -- A, B, C & D -- the wife has never been married before, but the husband has (it's his second or third marriage); likewise with the next 3 couples -- E, F & G -- except in these, it is the husband who has never been married before; but rather the wife who is on her 2nd (or 3rd+) trip down the aisle. Only in the last 3 marriages have -- couples H, I & J -- have BOTH the husband AND the wife NEVER been previously married. Only those LAST 3 couples will be included in this data (because the others are really NOT "pure" FIRST marriages, they're a "mixed bag").

That is complete bull. It just doesn't fit with observations in any way shape or form.

Actually I think it does. Cf: http://www.children-and-divorce.com/children-divorce-statistics.html

Consider that approximately 50% of US children will witness the divorce of their parents. Almost half of them will also see the breakup of a parent's second marriage.

One out of 10 children of divorce experiences three or more parental marriage breakups. (Gallagher -The Abolition of Marriage)

50% of all the children born to married parents today, will experience the divorce of their parents before they are 18 years old. (Fagan, Fitzgerald, Rector, -The Effects of Divorce On America-)

Keep in mind that how that plays out is like this. Woman "A" gets preggers, gets married to Man "A", has kid #1 then (within single digit years) gets divorced; She marries Man "B" (who likewise was previously married, but in his case got divorced sans children); she then has kids #2, and #3, while she is married to him (ostensibly all "B's" children, but who really knows?)... for whatever reason 8 years later she now divorces HIS arse; meets Man "C" (who has two kids of his own, we'll call those kids #4 & #5 from his previous marriage), and quickly marries him, pops out one last kid (#6, but only her "fourth")... then just as quickly divorces him as well, a short 2 years later.

OK... All SIX of those kids has now seen not only the breakup of their own "bio" parent's marriages, but kid #1 has also seen mommy get divorced THREE times, kids #2 & #3, as well as #4 & #5 have seen (one) of their parents divorce TWICE; and only the last child... #6 has only seen ONE parental divorce (but shit he's bare 2 years old... he's got another 16 years for mommy to make his life even MORE frigging complex -- new stepdads, new step-siblings, etc).

Also, in sum total -- this woman has PERSONALLY been responsible & a direct party to THREE (count 'em) marriages and THREE divorces -- if we add in the previous marriages & divorces of the guys (who she has married/then divorced) the count of her indirect party comes to FIVE marriages and FIVE divorces. (And we're assuming (or "ignoring" not counting) what probably happened with those divorced spouses and THEIR later marriages... nor her own subsequent (future) m's & d's.)

Meanwhile her sister got married at age 21 and is still married to the same guy 15 years later (w 2 kids) -- ergo she only shows up in the statistics as ONE marriage.

Oh, and if you think my "woman 'A'" is some "fictional" and "insane" caricature -- well I'll agree with you about the "insane" part, but I actually KNOW this women, she's not "fictional" she's my first-cousin. (In fact if you modify the number of kids up/down by one or two, add in the MALE relatives as well as female, and extend out to further parts of the "family tree" or social circles -- then I personally know of MULTIPLE iterations of her -- I have several cousins who followed this essential path: multiple marriages, multiple divorces, mixed-bag of kids running around {some of whom I'm not even sure even ARE biologically related to the "parent" they ended up in the custody of}... and yeah, the kids are pretty much ALL as "fucked up" as you might imagine they would be.) Seriously. At various "extended family" gatherings, well over HALF of the kids (probably more like 2/3) present are NOT biologically related to the "core" family -- they're "step-family".

Now maybe that's not true of the people you're around -- maybe your social (and/or family) circle* is with a class & group of people who AREN'T doing that (yet)* -- or MAYBE you haven't been paying attention, are relatively young with even younger friends/family (i.e. they're not yet "married" -- and as you get older you'll see more), and/or MAYBE you're just "blissfully unaware" of the past marital/divorce histories of the various spouses people in your group are themselves marrying (some families/circles/people just "don't talk about that" -- and if there aren't any "step kids" it may not be blatantly obvious).

But I can tell you that you get around OTHER groups/classes of people... and by a certain age, virtually EVERYONE in the group is getting or has been divorced (often MULTIPLE times -- in some cases more often than they get a different car).