NAWALT: A Base Rate Fallacy

widec · 2015-03-18T22:41:11+00:00

I think there's a lot of confusion about the term AWALT. It doesn't mean that all women are the same. It just means that all women share a similar set of traits. All women will be hypergamous, emotional, and have a dual mating strategy, among other traits. They can have wildly varying personalities and lifestyles, but their core instincts will always remain the same.

sealteamaus · 2015-03-18T22:28:50+00:00

Not really... and to my credit (grabbing my own horn to toot ;) I do statistics for a living... specifically genetics research/bioinformatics which does rely heavily on Bayesian statistical models.

If one's goal is to never be hurt/let down/screwed in the family courts/etc etc etc.... then AWALT is a perfect way to proceed.

If however you'd like to have a family/LTR/whatever then you have to start with understanding that in fact AWALT CANNOT be true. The divorce rate is not 100% and in fact there is at least one sex filled fantastic marriage/LTR that does exist. I can attest to exactly one I'm aware of in the last 40 years... and no it's not mine!

Now you might argue it's as rare as a lottery ticket and you'd be a fool to buy one. Maybe... but never the less... the statement NO ONE EVER WINS the lottery is simply not true.

If you want a successful LTR relationship then what you want to do (mr fancy pants statistics ;) is actually this - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_analysis

And in that you'd find some combination of indicators that would likely point out a person that is LLTBLT (Less likely to be like that ;) and there is no shortage of opinion on that.

In fact AWALT sounds sort of idiotic because as we all learned in school... if it's true false and the question contains all,always or never it's probably a false statement.

SariaLystra · 2015-03-18T20:48:00+00:00

TL;DR version: don't let an anecdote make you think that you've found an exception to the rule.

mrp3anut · 2015-03-18T23:38:33+00:00

You seem to have the same surface level understanding of AWALT as most guys here. You actually believe that all women are one failed shit test away from getting gangbanged by 75 men while you are at work.

Awalt means all women have the same basic instincts on some level. It does not mean all women are driven by them to the same degree. What this means is that Sally is a good bet for an LTR because the effort required to maintain frame with her is reasonable. She may still leave if you gain 200lbs, start crying when you see sad puppies, and generally turn into a beta bitch. Surprisingly guys here think its aweful that a woman will leave if you change after marriage yet have no problem ditching a girl if she changes after marriage.

TL:DR; Quit extrapolating shit out way beyond its scope and you will be fine.

popthatpill · 2015-03-18T22:23:48+00:00

Fascinating post, but i don't know why this is so complicated to people. NAWALT is two things:

First, it's a shit test: are you alpha enough to see through my protestations? If not, you don't get it, and hence you're a beta.

Second, it's designed to get you on the defensive: the more time and effort you waste bogged down in apologias for your position, the less time and effort you have to spare to spread RP crimethink.

So: never act defensive when you AWALT, and treat NAWALT like you'd treat any other shit test.

NeoreactionSafe · 2015-03-18T22:50:26+00:00

Hypergamy is universal... AWALT.

The real question is whether Hypergamy inherently means that a woman is incapable of monogamy. The answer is that Hypergamy is only active when certain conditions exist:

The man is proven to be objectively of low rank.
The man is proven to be subjectively of low rank.

. In either case the woman's Hypergamy must reassess her position and this prepares the way for a possible branch swing.

If your authentic rank is good (you are the real deal as Alpha) and you also do not fail internally as being of high rank then you should be fine.

Women don't want to jump... they dread doing it... but they do what they must.

oldredder · 2015-03-19T05:55:50+00:00

AWALT: it's not difficult. You need

a) eyes

b) lack of denial

If you can't accomplish A or B then AWALT will be a challenge but so will a shit-ton of other things in life.

moonmania · 2015-03-18T21:16:51+00:00

This is fucking retarded. The feminine, moral, n-count of 1, cooking, cleaning, wants-to-be-a-mother Sally is perfect relationship material. She sounds like a dream come true, and you'd be an absolute fool to falsely equate her to Krystal, the tattooed, rude, masculine, dick-hopping whore-slut who puts out to anybody with a smartphone and a Tinder profile.

Here's the deal, dude. Human logic is imperfect. It's messy. Our psychology has layers upon layers of biases, fallacies, heuristics, and everything else. Why? Because it's evolutionarily adaptive. When you succumb to confirmation bias, it's because there's a good evolutionary reason to do so. No true Scotsman? Same thing. Nostalgia, hindsight, overconfidence, illusory superiority, above-average effect, exposure effect, projection, etc.? Yeah, it's a chorus of a million of your ancestors screaming at you do this or this or that and pass us on because fuck you that's why. Your genes know what's best for you, but if they don't then they'll be weed-whacked and your line will end with you.

It's all evolution—it's all natural selection. Civilization, money, titles, status, democracy, Freedum, royalty, technology, communism, the Soviets, the goddamned Space Race...it's all for sex. And sex is for babies. And babies are for the perpetuation of the selfish, selfish genetic code. Because that's the real manifest destiny.

"Be fruitful and increase in number; fill the earth and subdue it. Rule over the fish in the sea and the birds in the sky and over every living creature that moves on the ground."

The ancients knew what they were talking about.

As an addendum, I can't believe I keep getting sucked into trying to answer this bullshit. What a time sink.

Title	NAWALT: A Base Rate Fallacy
Author	WardlyHasted
Upvotes	4
Comments	23
Date	March 18, 2015 8:36 PM UTC (11 years ago)
Subreddit	Posted in /r/TheRedPill
Original Link	https://old.reddit.com/r/TheRedPill/comments/2zibvw/nawalt_a_base_rate_fallacy/
Archive Link	https://theredarchive.com/r/TheRedPill/nawalt-a-base-rate-fallacy.30377 https://theredarchive.com/post/30377

Comments

Hypergamy is universal... AWALT.