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3 Articles Debunking the 2%-8% False Rape Stat

Mens-Advocate

July 17, 2016
37 upvotes
/r/MensRights

The author seems to be a statistician:
http://www.datagoneodd.com/blog/2015/01/25/how-to-lie-and-mislead-with-rape-statistics-part-1/
http://www.datagoneodd.com/blog/2015/01/27/how-to-lie-and-mislead-with-rape-statistics-part-2/
http://www.datagoneodd.com/blog/2015/06/28/what-do-we-know-about-false-rape-allegations/

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Post Information
Title 3 Articles Debunking the 2%-8% False Rape Stat
Author

Mens-Advocate

Upvotes 37
Comments 16
Date July 17, 2016 12:12 PM UTC
(10 years ago)
Subreddit Posted in /r/MensRights
Original Link https://old.reddit.com/r/MensRights/comments/4t9e35/3_articles_debunking_the_28_false_rape_stat/
Archive Link https://theredarchive.com/r/MensRights/3-articles-debunking-the-2-8-false-rape-stat.945385
https://theredarchive.com/post/945385
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Comments

[–]civilsaint 9 points10 points11 points 10 years ago (56 children) | Copy Link

I wish this guy still wrote. These are some of the best articles on the topic.

From the third article, I got the idea that Mens Rights should parrot the claim that only 1.2 - 7.8% of rape accusations are true in order to combat the 2 - 8% are false claim.

As he points out, both claims have the same validity.

[–]MasterGoshinki 4 points5 points6 points 10 years ago (0 children) | Copy Link

great point, saved

[+][deleted] 10 years ago (54 children) | Copy Link

[permanently deleted]

[–]civilsaint 4 points5 points6 points 10 years ago (53 children) | Copy Link

2-8% false claim comes from cases that police call "unfounded" but without any actual trial by jury

What? If the case is unfounded, then there isn't a jury. A jury is only used as a criteria when a crime was committed, an arrest is made, and the prosecutor proceeds with the case, which rarely happens in cases of false accusations. They don't convene juries for non-crimes, so in the eyes of law enforcement, no rape, no crime.

And the 1.2 - 7.8% true number is just as ridiculous as the 2 - 8% number. They are equally dishonest.

The reason for this is that no sane person assumes that 100% of guilty people are convicted, the same way as no sane person would assume that 100% of false accusations are caught by the police. It is nearly impossible to prove a negative. Besides, once the cops realize there isn't enough evidence to proceed further, they stop investigating. Investigating false accusations is not high on their list, and many precincts actually just overlook them.

[+][deleted] 10 years ago (52 children) | Copy Link

[permanently deleted]

[–]Mens-Advocate[S] 1 point2 points3 points 10 years ago* (51 children) | Copy Link

You're no statistician; the two are not comparable. Ostensible rape is over enforced; ostensible perjury, under enforced. Prosecutorial discretion introduces a bias, just as you introduce inanity.

[+][deleted] 10 years ago (50 children) | Copy Link

[permanently deleted]

[–]--Visionary-- 0 points1 point2 points 10 years ago (49 children) | Copy Link

Frankly, I find it a little weird to consider any crime over enforced when 95+% of the perpetrators never face jail, especially when the victim knows the perpetrator in the vast majority of crimes. But maybe that's just my inanity acting up again.

It's even weirder when someone assumes that any and all claims of rape are true (without the adjudication process required to say someone was a "perpetrator of rape") to get that 95% number.

But maybe that's just our inanity acting up again.

[+][deleted] 10 years ago (48 children) | Copy Link

[permanently deleted]

[–]--Visionary-- 1 point2 points3 points 10 years ago (47 children) | Copy Link

Again, there's literally no way to say a rape has occurred without the adjudication process happening that DEFINES it as rape.

That's like saying 95 percent of felons are never convicted as felons. Uh, how'd you figure out they were felons in the first place?

I haven't called anyone inane; I don't need to result to ad hominem attacks to make my point.

It's not ad hominem to point out a severe logical fallacy with your point.

[+][deleted] 10 years ago (46 children) | Copy Link

[permanently deleted]

[–]--Visionary--1 point 10 years ago [recovered] | Copy Link

That's a ridiculous comparison -- murders actually involve a dead body. You wouldn't "estimate" a murder without one.

Rape is based on an action (sex) that's done so frequently every day, but requires extraordinarily good adjudication processes to conclude that it actually happened. There's no such evidence like a dead body to use the same method that one, say, uses for murders. Let alone one that results in numbers so astonishing (and coincidentally so pro-feminist) that POLICY is being made on them that can affect innocent people.

I mean come on.

[–]WaitingToBeBanned 2 points3 points4 points 10 years ago (0 children) | Copy Link

To my knowledge the 8% figure is represents provably false court cases according to the FBI. It should be treated as an absolute minimum.

[–]civilsaint 1 point2 points3 points 10 years ago (0 children) | Copy Link

Archives: http://archive.is/RtSjH - Part 1 http://archive.is/Cg91h - Part 2 http://archive.is/yyx41

I'll suggest these for the reading section.

[–]Wisemanner 0 points1 point2 points 10 years ago (1 child) | Copy Link

This is superb too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9s5H-RNjxY

[–]Mens-Advocate[S] 0 points1 point2 points 10 years ago (0 children) | Copy Link

Thanks! Molyneux's excellent.

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