There's no such thing as shooting your shot too early. I'm a hardcore direct guy, and I do exclusively direct approach. I learned that beating round the bush never got any guy past the bush. I'd highly recommend you ditch all that indirect Mystery Method crap and instead check Alan Roger Currie's 'Mode One' books and seminars as well as David X.

Direct approach blows ALL other approaches out of the water, especially for daytime approaches.

Early-on, I lost women because I didn't escalate fast enough. Some of those same women might not have actually slept with me by the second or third date, had I escalated properly, but they wanted to know that I actually wanted it and they know this through my escalations (or lack of them). I don't have a rule as to when sex should happen, but I just want to see steady progress in her response to my physical/romantic escalation. Some very cautious and conservative girls may take several months to feel comfortable with you enough to sleep with you and get into a relationship, and if I feel a girl is high quality and LTR material, I will continue to see her for that length of time and be patient, but only if I am seeing some progress toward sex and some investment from her during that time. Otherwise I will eject when I see the intimacy stop progressing.

Even if you do have an old fashioned and cautious/conservative girl, escalating attempts from you should not be seen as a bad thing to her. The only way it would be bad is if you aren't reading her responses and adjusting accordingly. Example: After things are going well on a first date, you start the escalation with a touch to the back of her elbow while you are both laughing at a joke, and she moves her arm away. Ok too soon. That's not a problem yet. But if you then try touching her leg 5 minutes later, you've not adjusted properly to her first response.

If a girl likes you, and your escalations are calibrated, she will not eject, even if she isn't yet receptive to your escalations. So there is really no risk in escalating. The only risk is in not escalating and having her feel rejected.