tl;dr: A man with 3 kids has statisically 1 in 4 odds of being a cuckold

(this is adapted and improved from some other posts)

The best source we have is an NHS Chief who went on the record to say:

“If you look at people who have had genetic tests within families for reasons other than trying to work out paternity, for one in 10 people your dad isn’t who you think it is.” - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/05/31/oneperson-10-mistaken-identity-father-reveals-nhs-chief/

This was from a source of 220,000 tests carried out by the NHS in England and Scotland each year that were cancer screenings and other things not about paternity testing. Thats the biggest unbiased dataset in existence for this, and the number is 10%, not 1% like I keep reading. And its 10% per child, not 10% per family.

Its not about secret adoptions where both parents know and the child doesn't. The UK has 66 Million people. So 6.6 million people have a different father to what is believed. There are only 5000 adoptions a year in the UK. "In 2014, the Department of Education revealed that the numbers of adoptions in the UK had increased by 63 per cent in the previous three years, from 3,100 in 2011 to 5,050 in 2014."

Its not about sperm donation where its kept secret from the child. In the UK "Every year, around 2,000 children are conceived with the help of a donor."

" There were 697,852 live births in England and Wales in 2015". So of 700k babies about 7k are related to adoption and sperm donation. Assuming all adoptions and sperm donations are kept secret from the child then that accounts for 1% and 9% is still unaccounted for. Now there are men who date single mothers with very young children and act like a father to those children. However those men most typically adopt the child and are included in the adoption statistic already accounted for. The NHS Chief says its about the child having a different father to what is believed, and the data he has will not be listing the non-bio father unless he has legally adopted the child. Its about who is on the birth certificate.

With 10% per child, if a man has 3 kids then his odds of one of them not being his own are roughly 1-(0.9)^3 = 27.1%

27.1% assumes that each next child has equal odds of being from another man. You might argue that the odds decrease with each subsequent child, as a woman who has cheated or pulled it off once is more likely to be the type of woman to do it again. Well we dont have data on this and never will. And anecdotally when I see evidence and stories of proven cuckoldry on subs like 23andme its almost always one child from another father and the rest aren't. That is not solid evidence and it has some sample bias, but it is the best sample I can uncover to estimate P(cuckolded multiple times | cuckolded once). You could also argue its more likely with later children as affairs can happen later in the marriage when the honeymoon period wore off and she has seen her partner at is weakness as life throws some curveballs once in a while. In my own life when I've seen one child looks totally different to the others and the father they are usually the youngest, though this is weak observational data. In my family one child of an aunt is from a different father and he is the youngest. You might argue the woman has less to lose by doing it with the last kid, since the man might having much higher risk of leaving if it was the first, but have higher chance of staying if its the last. (Thats what happened with my aunt).

When I talk about this I always get emotional reactional replies, no matter where I say it. Last time I brought it up the top response on this sub was calling me an incel. Before responding consider rereading the shaming tactics from the sidebar https://exposingfeminism.wordpress.com/shaming-tactics/ . If your issue is that we shouldn't be talking about it then please actually say why as usually its just downvoted hard. On other subs the top replies are people going through my post history and saying all evidence must be disregarded as its biased, no matter how good the source is.

Some say 'it doesnt matter because if you are worrying about it then you arent alpha in the first place'. Well firstly alpha is not binary. Heartiste always said when first metting a girl the best success is being alpha-alpha-beta, then later in a long term relationship alpha-beta-beta. If you are pure alpha you are not meeting all your womans needs regarding security and commitment. Also you might slip up and by beta for a couple months from some kind of life/work stress. If you are alpha-beta-beta and had a rough month at work, and your wife goes on a work trip with her pure alpha boss, who has power over her and mystery and intrigue and shes never seen him sick with flu or depressed or whatever might have happened with you, and they have work drinks ... she might make a one time mistake and not mention it to avoid ending the relationship. One survey says 20% of people have had a workplace affair https://www.forbes.com/sites/kimelsesser/2019/02/14/these-6-surprising-office-romance-stats-should-be-a-wake-up-call-to-organizations/#116897823a24

For some reason this is a real sacred cow that nobody wants to talk about. But its in all our interests that we do. Even if the most red pill thing is to take advantage of the situation by cuckolding other men, or at least to defend ourselves from the risk. Ultimately I want to see the stigma around men getting paternity tests to be destroyed.

If you think this is important information for the world to know then I would encourage you to share it.