Question about rape statistics

Samsonite314 · 2019-03-26T20:53:44+00:00

From what I remember, the 1/4 or 1/5 statistic is based on a CDC report initially (I think there's another one now with the same deal), but it has several flaws

It only looked at university campuses

It was a non-mandatory survey, which can sway results towards those who have experienced sexual assault.

It asked questions including "have you had sex after consuming alcohol", which were determined to be rape, when this is not explicitly true.

There's been other studies that report rape to be about 1/20 to 1/40 women, which is still way too high.

If I'm wrong let me know, this is what I remember from looking into it.

nickolay1986 · 2019-03-26T19:16:49+00:00

Very curious about the definition of rape and demographics these statistics are based upon.

boringcarpets · 2019-03-26T21:56:39+00:00

Why ask that here? You could look it up. but, as nickolay says; pay attention to the definitions and demographics.

I might add this though:

according to the UK Office for National Statistics, the prevalence of sexual assault among adults aged 16 to 59, by type, year ending March 2017, recorded the following percentages of victims once or more from a total of 11338 women:

Rape including attempts: 5.5% since the age of 16, 0.7% in 2017

Rape excluding attempts: 4.5% since the age of 16, 0.4% in 2017

Any sexual assault (including attempts andincluding "Indecent exposure or unwanted touching") = 20.3% since the age of 16, 3.1% in 2017.

Estimated numbers of victims of sexual assault since the age of 16, Rape or assault by penetration (including attempts): 1,068,000 women... out of a population of over 64,000,000 or let's say 32million women (half 64m), its not quite 1 in 4.

according to rape crisis UK approximately 85,000 women experience rape, attempted rape or sexual assault by penetration every year. Only around 15% of those who experience sexual violence report to the police. that means roughly 566,666 a year? I'm sure someone can work out how that equates to 25% over whatever a lifetime is defined as.

Could it be scaremongering? Certain types wanting to keep women afraid and angry? to feel weak and helpless? to keep them fighting ghosts?

imdog · 2019-03-27T04:25:30+00:00

I'd be much more trustworthy of actual crime statistics than anonymous surveys conducted by agenda-driven organizations that require zero evidence to claim a rape occurred. If we're going by FBI statistics there are 25.2 reported rapes for every 100,000 females in the US. Assuming every single one of those is a true allegation, that would approximate to 1 in 4000 annually.

Tailtappin · 2019-03-27T06:20:16+00:00

Well, no, it's not true but there may be truth to it from a limited perspective.

So, first of all, when you think of rape, you imagine that some guy jumps out of the bushes and proceeds to ravish some unsuspecting school girl. Well, that's not how the people who came up these "facts" viewed rape. To them it was whenever a woman decided she wasn't in the mood but had sex anyway. That's not an exaggeration, either. Then they decided that women who were still with their "rapists" were also victims.

Now, if you use their methodology then it's probably true. Of course, they inflated their numbers by a factor of ten to account for all the rapes they assumed took place but weren't reported. Okay...that's just a little presumptuous but okay. Of course, they don't actually say "rape" most of the time. To their credit, they usually say the women were sexually assaulted. That's fine except that they expand the definition to include pretty much every time a man looked sideways at them.

Don't forget, the people repeating this actually believe that Sweden is the rape capital of the world.

How true it is depends entirely on what you're willing to accept as reliable and truthful. I personally don't put any stock in it and I find that pretty much all feminist "statistics" are as accurate as Stevie Wonder at a skeet shooting event.

Pioustarcraft · 2019-03-26T22:05:07+00:00

This is a very difficult question to answer because a lot of sexual assault and rape are not repported to the police. From those who are repported, some are false. If the claim is outlandish, if the claim is directly deemed unrecevable, it is dismissed and doesn't enter in the statistics.
The only real source you could have 100% trust in are law enforcement statistics as they register the claims and file the repport. The most commonly quoted repport comes from the FBI but it more than 15 years old. In it, they say that 8% of all claims that are investigated are deemed "un-founded". Compaired to an average of 2% for any other claim page 24.
A study from the university of Massachusetts says between 2 and 10 % of rape claims are false. But... The real question when you read those studies is "what is their definition of rape". According to the lax, a rape is a forced penetration (penis, finger, object) of the vagina or the anus. This is the definition that lax enforcement use. This is not however the definition used by the commonly quoted study of 1 out of 4 women. Their definition is broader and not limited to a penetration.
There will be an obvious biased from the feminist groups who will tend to have a very large definition meanwhile other groups might tend to lower the number to soften the impact. This is why an independent statistic is necessary.

duhhhh · 2019-03-27T01:28:05+00:00

This was determined by the sexual experiences survey and scoring methodology.

I don't know if it was the long form - http://www.midss.org/content/sexual-experiences-survey-long-form-victimization-ses-lfv

Or the short form - http://www.midss.org/content/sexual-experiences-survey-short-form-victimization-ses-sfv ...but it was one of those.

I personally don't trust any numbers associated with Mary Koss. She has even taken other studies and rewritten them to maximize female victims and minimize male victims using this methodology. For example https://tamenwrote.wordpress.com/2014/01/24/koss-again/

Most people hearing rape statistics don't understand what counts as rape and what does not. For statistical reporting, rape has been carefully defined as forced penetration. Feminist professor Mary P Koss repeatedly explains that a woman raping a man isn't rape. For example hear her in her own voice explain - https://clyp.it/uckbtczn. I encourage you to listen to what she is saying.

She is considered the foremost expert on sexual violence in the US. She is the one that started the 1 in 4 college women is sexually assaulted myth by counting all sorts of things the "victims" didn't. A man misinterpreting a situation going in for a kiss and then backing off when she puts up her hand or turns her cheek is a sexual assault on a woman. As you hear in her own words the woman's studies professor and trusted expert that literally wrote the book on measuring prevalence of sexual violence does not call a woman drugging and riding a man bareback rape ... or even label it sexual assault ... it is "unwanted contact"

You see she really was instrumental in creating the methodology most (including the US and other government agencies around the world) use for gathering rape statistics.

Detecting the Scope of Rape : A Review of Prevalence Research Methods. Author: Mary P. Koss. Journal of Interpersonal Violence Volume: 8 Issue: 2 Dated: (June 1993) Page: 206

Although consideration of male victims is within the scope of the legal statutes, it is important to restrict the term rape to instances where male victims were penetrated by offenders. It is inappropriate to consider as a rape victim a man who engages in unwanted sexual intercourse with a woman.

She is an advisor to the CDC, FBI, Congress, and researchers around the world and promoting the idea that men cannot be raped by women. There was a proposal to include forced envelopment in the latest FBI definition to rape but after a closed door meeting with her and N.O.W. lobbiests, it mysteriously disappeared. She has many many followers and fellow researchers that follow her methodology and quote her studies. That is where most people get the idea rape is just a man on woman crime. Men are fairly rarely penetrated and it is almost always by another man.

Most people talking about sexual violence refer to the "rape" (penetrated) numbers as influenced by Mary Koss's methodologies, but the CDC also gathered the data for "made to penetrate" (enveloped) in the 2010 and 2011 NISVS studies.

As an example lets look at the 2011 survey numbers: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss6308a1.htm

an estimated 1.6% of women (or approximately 1.9 million women) were raped in the 12 months before taking the survey

and

The case count for men reporting rape in the preceding 12 months was too small to produce a statistically reliable prevalence estimate.

vs

an estimated 1.7% of men were made to penetrate a perpetrator in the 12 months preceding the survey

and

Characteristics of Sexual Violence Perpetrators For female rape victims, an estimated 99.0% had only male perpetrators. In addition, an estimated 94.7% of female victims of sexual violence other than rape had only male perpetrators. For male victims, the sex of the perpetrator varied by the type of sexual violence experienced. The majority of male rape victims (an estimated 79.3%) had only male perpetrators. For three of the other forms of sexual violence, a majority of male victims had only female perpetrators: being made to penetrate (an estimated 82.6%), sexual coercion (an estimated 80.0%),

So if made to penetrate happens each year as much as rape then by your assumed definition of rape then men are half of rape victims. If 99% of rapists are men and 83% of "made to penetrators" are women ... then an estimated 41% of the perpetrators of nonconsensual sex in 2011 were women.

But since made to penetrate is not rape, the narrative is that men are rapists and women are victims and boys/men that are victims are victims of men.

And before you think that was just one study, it wasn't.

2010 survey results - https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/pdf/cdc_nisvs_ipv_report_2013_v17_single_a.pdf

Scientific American - https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sexual-victimization-by-women-is-more-common-than-previously-known

data revealed that over one year, men and women were equally likely to experience nonconsensual sex, and most male victims reported female perpetrators. Over their lifetime, 79 percent of men who were “made to penetrate” someone else (a form of rape, in the view of most researchers) reported female perpetrators. Likewise, most men who experienced sexual coercion and unwanted sexual contact had female perpetrators.

And...

A recent study of youth found, strikingly, that females comprise 48 percent of those who self-reported committing rape or attempted rape at age 18-19.

The Atlantic - https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/11/the-understudied-female-sexual-predator/503492/

a 2014 study of 284 men and boys in college and high school found that 43 percent reported being sexually coerced, with the majority of coercive incidents resulting in unwanted sexual intercourse. Of them, 95 percent reported only female perpetrators.

And...

National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions found in a sample of 43,000 adults little difference in the sex of self-reported sexual perpetrators. Of those who affirmed that they had ‘ever forced someone to have sex with you against their will,’ 43.6 percent were female and 56.4 percent were male.”

Time - http://time.com/3393442/cdc-rape-numbers

when asked about experiences in the last 12 months, men reported being “made to penetrate”—either by physical force or due to intoxication—at virtually the same rates as women reported rape (both 1.1 percent in 2010, and 1.7 and 1.6 respectively in 2011).

Gaki-San · 2019-03-27T03:11:45+00:00

Well, here's some things to think about.

Sexual assault is collected in certain demographics, so the risk is not equally shared across all women. In my nation, the risk of being sexually assaulted if you're native, or in sex work, or if you're an alcoholic or drug addict, is massively higher than if you're caucasian, a student and not an addict, but a generalized statistic like this averages out the demographics that see significant volumes with those that see almost none at all, and make it look like all women are equally at risk, when that's nonsense. A sex worker will be sexually assaulted a few times a year, usually, and the women in that industry heavily drive up the average.

Secondly, these are lifetime extrapolations. The first thing you'll notice when you go look up the actual stats in victimization surveys or police reports is that they aren't stated in lifetime statistics. They are x/100K or x/1000. The people who publish these stats are intentionally taking these numbers and extrapolating them out across a lifetime to get a higher statistic. They know that 22/1000 (the self reported sexual assault rate in Canada as per our last GSS in 2014, or 67/100k (the police reported rate as per the 2017 UCR) aren't saleable, so they make their stastistic larger by extrapolating across one's entire life. They cannot get those extrapolations without their own estimation, and that estimation is only undertaken if they already have an agenda in mind.

Thirdly, the definition of sexual assault that's used in victimization surveys is usually quite a bit different than what would pass in a court room. The definition on the GSS in Canada, for example, includes 'being drunk or stoned enough that you couldn't consent', which is clearly a judgement call, and 'kissing without consent', which includes a significant volume of acts that would never see the inside of a courtroom, ever. Intentionally widening the definition to acts that would virtually never been seen as criminal makes the statistics unreliable, doubly so if you're going to extrapolate dishonestly from them. I've been sexually assaulted probably 15 times, if we're counting women who kissed me without permission when I wasn't interested!

Finally, if you look at some victimization surveys, they'll occasionally give you some insight into why people don't report. There's always a gap between victimization surveys and crime reports, with there being several times more self-reported victims than victims who went to the cops. In Canada, we capture why, and the top 3 answers were a) perceived the crime as minor and not worth taking the time to report (71%), b) that the incident was a private or personal matter and handled informally (67%), and c) no one was harmed during the incident (63%). That is a significant departure from the normal narrative, which is that women have zero faith in the justice system and avoid it like the plague, right?

Almost sounds like most these victims notice what I point out in the third paragraph - that a good chunk of what some people call sexual assault are minor transgressions that get handled socially, by a brush off, by evasion, by redirection, by refusal, by booting them out, etc. They'd never see an arrest, let alone a charge, let alone a conviction.

DJ-Roukan · 2019-03-27T05:23:39+00:00

That was a feminist study of college women, done via phone interview. It was debunked as it did not follow scientific method at all, but tended to lead the subject toward a per-determined outcome by involving leading questions and an invalid definition of rape. It was reported at the time, that a number of women interviewed for that study reproved the findings. Some of the victims were still dating, or had married their "rapist".

By their definition of rape, most women that i've been with, including my wife, are rapist.

It falls in line with the line with the "Superbowl Sunday Violence Against women claim that was debunked. When investigation of the Old Dominion study was done, it was actually determined that the numbers did not change on that day, and that 38% of the victims that day were actually male...but by then, the news media had gone off the deep end, including one news caster claiming that "men were leaping off their couches at their wives like linebackers, and others calling it, "the day of dread". The Superbowl had also been played, and the NFL literally wasted millions of advertising slots posting public service announcements asking men to remain calm.

Another was "how schools shortchange girls" study put forth by the AAUW. I personally was involved in debunking that one, challenging, on a Televised round table discussion, one of the authors to produce the "study" that proved their claim. They did not, but simply dodged the question, and no one has ever found or produced such as study, but that paper was the impetus of the discrimination boys now face in our colleges.

it's called the "wrap up -smear, where the study is published, and then validated when the media publishes it.

On the 1 in 4 claim, when I looked up a number of sources from FBI crime statistics, the CDC, to the Census, cross referenced the numbers and adjusted for population, it looked more like 1 in 4000, not 1 in 4. At the time, when I investigated reported rapes in colleges across the country, it was noted that one rape occurs on every college campus every two years, not the 25% the study claimed.

The 1 in 4 is an absolute insane statement to be made. It is akin to Australian feminist claiming that 3 domestic violence deaths per week constitute a crisis. When put in perspective, with statistics such as 7 women per week being killed in bicycle accidents, that the DV statistic does not even make the top 50, we begin to see how feminism markets its product as viable.

xNOM · 2019-03-27T21:02:29+00:00

The 1 in 4 crap is propaganda. Usually these "studies" do not measure criminal rape. They measure something else which they give a name like "completed or attempted sexual assault" They also use extremely unreliable and small datasets and questionable methods.

The only believable estimate I have ever seen comes in at 8%.

https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/llv.pdf

This was extrapolated from data from the 70s and 80s, when all crime rates were much higher. Female rape victimization peaks in young adulthood. The rate for older and younger women is almost zero. So today the 8% number would be much smaller. During college age (the age at which the rape rate is highest) the rape rate is currently around 1 per 1000 per year (see link below).

Note that another "1 in 4" propaganda number is the fraction of women who get raped in college.

https://old.reddit.com/r/mensrightslinks/comments/3nquxy/othergovernment_rape_and_sexual_assault_among/

For all women the BJS has done a similar compilation.

https://old.reddit.com/r/mensrightslinks/comments/3zt2k4/othergovernment_female_victims_of_sexual_violence/

All of these findings are based on the NCVS, a broad (49,000 to 77,000 households) and longitudinal (each household participates for three years) survey with a high (88% per person) response rate. The victimization and police reporting rates from the NCVS roughly agree with police statics from the UCR. The NCVS is the gold standard for criminal victimization data. It is used by many researchers. None of the other "studies" with their own surveys comes even close to getting such a good relatively unbiased data set.

erbangermanberben82 · 2019-03-27T02:53:22+00:00

Based on private conversations with various women, in contexts where I think they'd have no reason to lie or exaggerate, I believe that that statistic is true (i.e., approximately correct). This is for the US.

That said, I suspect that a rather small proportion of men are rapists. Don't have any stats at hand, but guessing maybe 1-5%.

Also have no idea of what proportion of women are rapists. But based on the recent train of stories about female teachers raping their (minor) students, I wonder if it's not similar.

Title	Question about rape statistics
Author	PaulMusicMode
Upvotes	14
Comments	12
Date	March 26, 2019 7:10 PM UTC (7 years ago)
Subreddit	Posted in /r/MensRights
Original Link	https://old.reddit.com/r/MensRights/comments/b5tubc/question_about_rape_statistics/
Archive Link	https://theredarchive.com/r/MensRights/question-about-rape-statistics.880985 https://theredarchive.com/post/880985

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