This image sparked my research.

Disclaimer 1: I live in the US, and most of these numbers are for the UK. Please correct me if I've made some mistake.

Disclaimer 2: I'm assuming that these findings are loosely comparable to the US and other developed countries. Is there anything wrong with that assumption?

I could try to find the US numbers but I'm kind of lazy and I didn't find them quickly so...


Off to it.

We all know the 1 in 6 claim is false. If anyone is new and wants it debunked, I'll dig up the sources. What really interested me was the 16.3% stat. I remember watching a video claiming that only about 10% ended in conviction, 10% false accusation (beyond reasonable doubt), with 80% up in the air. So the false accusation rate could be as high as 90%, although it's unlikely.

According to The Guardian, there were 3692 prosecutions of rape with 2333 resulting in conviction for a conviction rate 63%, which is almost four times higher than this infographic claims.

However I noticed these numbers were awfully low... So I looked up the population of England and Wales and found 57 000 000 from this page. According to these sources, a woman has a 0.26% chance to even prosecute someone for rape in her lifetime, assuming 40 years. (3692 / 57000000 * 100 * 40)

Well obviously not all rapes lead to even a prosecution. But how many are the feminists claiming? I think the 1 in 5 is more common, but let's go with the 1 in 6 just to be consistent with this infographic. Of course, we'll assume that all prosecutions are actual rapes like the feminists, who think that false reporting is at something like 2% and can be ignored.

1 in 6 is 16.67%. This is 9 500 000 women in the UK. (0.1667 * 57000000) Of course this is over 40 years, so it's 237 500 in a given year. (9500000 / 40)

According to these calculations, 233 808 women were raped but didn't prosecute (for a myriad of reasons, of course). That is to say that only 1.56% of women who are raped prosecute the alleged rapist. (3692 / 237500) Are we really expected to believe this?

Let's even go a step further. It stands to reason that in the past, prosecution rate would be even lower than they are now, but let's be optimistic and assume that it is still 1.56%. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the highest rate of rape we know of was in 1979 at 2.9 per 1000, or 0.29%. Now these numbers are for the US. So this is where disclaimer 2 is kind of important. I searched and searched for the UK numbers (but I'm lazy, so take that with a grain of salt) and I couldn't find anything further back than 2013. So let's assume that the UK and the US are loosely comparable.

In 1973, the US had a population of 211.9 million. So approximately 106 million women. If 0.29% of them prosecuted for rape in that year, that's 307 400 women who prosecuted for rape. If this represents 1.56% of all rapes, which is generous, it should probably be lower, then 19 705 128 women were raped. In other words, 18.59% of all the women in the US were raped in a single year (and probably more) according to the feminist numbers. That trend would only have to continue for about 6 years before every woman in the country was raped. Sure, the rate is going down, so maybe 10 years.

Are we really expected to believe that over the course of 10 years in US history that every woman was raped? It just seems mind-boggling. I suppose it's entirely possible that feminists do actually believe that rape is this prevalent. They do, after all, believe that we live in a rape culture.

I hope I did my math right, it's late and I'm tired and lazy. Someone check me if I'm wrong, I'd hate to look like a fool and mock the feminists when my numbers are wrong. There were approximations all over the place and numbers pulled from difference sources, and then there's the conflagration of the US to the UK, so I'm sure my numbers aren't perfect, but the final conclusion should be fairly accurate.


The feminists' numbers seem unreasonably and unsustainably high.

EDIT:

Dang, I found a mistake I made. I did 16.67% of 57M instead of 16.67% of 28.5M. So the real conviction rate is 3.11% not 1.56%.

This brings the percentage of women raped in the US in 1973 to 9.33%. Which is really interesting since that's lower than 1 in 6, and we know rape was much more prevalent in 1973. This is kind of odd though, since this number was obtained by using a non-reporting rate obtained from the assumed 1 in 6. So I'm actually kind of confused on what happened.