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Most Americans Agree With DeVos on Sexual Misconduct on Campuses

wiseprogressivethink

September 13, 2017

9 upvotes

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/social_issues/most_americans_agree_with_devos_on_sexual_misconduct_on_campuses

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Post Information

Title	Most Americans Agree With DeVos on Sexual Misconduct on Campuses
Author	wiseprogressivethink
Upvotes	9
Comments	14
Date	September 13, 2017 8:52 PM UTC (8 years ago)
Subreddit	Posted in /r/MensRights
Original Link	https://old.reddit.com/r/MensRights/comments/6zxhfm/most_americans_agree_with_devos_on_sexual/
Archive Link	https://theredarchive.com/r/MensRights/most-americans-agree-with-devos-on-sexual.1175465 https://theredarchive.com/post/1175465

Comments

[–]cld8 4 points5 points6 points 8 years ago (0 children) | Copy Link

[–]MagicTampon1 point 8 years ago [recovered] | Copy Link

[–]Lethn -1 points0 points1 point 8 years ago (11 children) | Copy Link

[–]RapeMatters 5 points6 points7 points 8 years ago (9 children) | Copy Link

[–]Lethn -2 points-1 points0 points 8 years ago (8 children) | Copy Link

The survey of 1,000 American Adults was conducted on September 10-11, 2017 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

It just isn't, I don't trust these kinds of polls at all as they are trying to find out the opinions of billions or millions of people and you just can't quantify that as easily as some people think. Especially after Brexit and Trump, I would have thought that people wouldn't keep putting so much stock in statistics like this, it's bullshit, 1000 people no matter how varied they are cannot tell you the opinions of an entire country.

What's particularly insulting are the ones that go "60% of Americans believe" and then it turns out there's a tiny poll sampling of 200 people, do not trust this sort of data, ever, it's interesting, but it's not trustworthy as a measurement.

[–]RapeMatters 5 points6 points7 points 8 years ago (7 children) | Copy Link

Especially after Brexit and Trump, I would have thought that people wouldn't keep putting so much stock in statistics like this

The national election was within the margin of error on the vast majority of polls leading up to it. The state polls varied a little (most being within the margins, but several not), but the national ones were actually spot on.

it's bullshit, 1000 people no matter how varied they are cannot tell you the opinions of an entire country.

Given it's a yes/no question, it can accurately predict, with 95% confidence, how many people across the country would say yes/no to that question. It's not meant to capture every nuance of everything.

I went to see what kind of a sample size you would need for a 95% confidence interval on 320,000,000 people with a 3 percentage point spread using this tool:

https://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

Comes up with 1067. For a four point spread (+/- 4pts), it's 600 people. For a 5 point spread, it's 384 people. For a six point spread, it's 267 people.

Statistics are neat. If your methodology is good, once your sample size passes a few hundred people, it can predict huge populations because the variations of the sample start smoothing out.

[+]Lethn -6 points-5 points-4 points 8 years ago (6 children) | Copy Link

[–]RapeMatters 1 point2 points3 points 8 years ago* (5 children) | Copy Link

you may as well be relying on astrology to predict the outcome of an election or how people think on a certain issues.

No, it's actually science, and it works over and over again. The national polls of the Trump/Clinton election prove it.

A link to the poll listing:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Bloomberg had Clinton +3, with a 3.5 margin of error (anywhere within +0.5 Trump to + 6.5 Clinton).

IBD had Trump +2, with a 3.1 MOE (anywhere between Trump +5.1 to Clinton +1.1).

Economist MOE is unstated, so skipping that one.

ABC had Clinton +4, with 2.5 MOE (from Clinton +1.5 to clinton +6.5).

Fox had same as ABC above, same MOE and everything.

Monmouth had Clinton +6, 3.6 MOE (Clinton + 2.4 to +9.6).

Actual result? Clinton +2.1. Monmouth was 0.3% off and IBD was 1% off, opposite directions.

If it's astrology, why does it work so well?

[–]Lethn 0 points1 point2 points 8 years ago (4 children) | Copy Link

[–]RapeMatters 2 points3 points4 points 8 years ago (3 children) | Copy Link

[–]Lethn 0 points1 point2 points 8 years ago (2 children) | Copy Link

The problem with that is thought there were discoveries of fraud within the election so it could in fact be that she got less votes anyway. For instance one of the most well known cases of a recount was in Wisconsin which Jill Stein organised, in the end that ended up actually giving Trump more votes, only a slight amount but the point still stands and there was dodgy stuff happening with the voting machines etc. not only hilarious but again indicates just how inaccurate polls can be.

I think polls can give you a general idea of the way quite a few people are thinking but that's it, they shouldn't be relied on as an 'accurate' measure of what people think, it's that kind of arrogant thought process that lead to Trump and Brexit winning in the first place.

Now when it's a poll in the hundreds of thousands then that would be a different story, but the poll sampling is often so small it's just idiotic.

[–]wiseprogressivethink[S] 1 point2 points3 points 8 years ago (0 children) | Copy Link

[–]RapeMatters 0 points1 point2 points 8 years ago (0 children) | Copy Link

[–]wiseprogressivethink[S] 5 points6 points7 points 8 years ago (0 children) | Copy Link