NISVS 2015

In NISVS 2015, the 12 month data went down for made to penetrate (1.1%/1.27 million in 2010 to 0.7%/0.83 million in 2015). However, the lifetime rates went up (4.8%/5.45 million in 2010 and 7.1%/7.9 million in 2015). If there was a declining trend the 12 month data then the lifetime would be static or declining. Meanwhile rape of women increased for both the 12 month and the lifetime consistently. 2010 1.1%/18.3% to 2015 1.2%/21.3%. The actual numbers are consistent too. I call shenanigans.

Another issue is the ratio of 12 month to lifetime. Using the 2015 numbers the ratio for women’s rape is 1.2%/21.3% or a lifetime of 17.75 years. This may be about right since the first incidence of rape is about 6% after age 35. The 2010 numbers were consistent at 16.6 years. Using the 2015 data for made to penetrate for men puts the lifetime at 0.7%/7.1% at a little over 10 years. The 2010 numbers were worse at 1.1%/4.8% or 4.4 years. This is similar to saying that men are forced to penetrate only in the 18-23 age bracket. These numbers are absurd. Here is another way of looking at it. In 2010 the lifetime estimate of forced to penetrate was 5.45 million. Assuming that the lower number (2015) of 827,000 per year is used over the 5 year span would mean that 4,135,000 would be added and then subtract off the victims that died in that 5 year period. 5.45+4.135 million is 9.585 million. Essentially 1.7 million male victims of forced to penetrate died in that 5 year period. Approximately 1.4 million men die per year or approximately 7 million over that five year period. For the lifetime victimization to be accurate then roughly 25% of the men that died would have to been forced to penetrate. This 25% would eclipse the 4.8% or 7.1% seen in the 2010 and 2015 reports.

Basically the lifetime rates were only 4.4-10 times higher than what was seen the previous 12 months. If they were counting it like female rape then the lifetime rates would be 15-20 time higher. In essence they are either vastly under reporting the lifetime rate that men are made to penetrate or every instance that could occur over a lifetime has happened in the last 5-10 years. If it is the former then there has been adjustments (lying) with the numbers. If it is the later then there is a made to penetrate (rape of men) epidemic that has occurred in only the last few years that would exceed the rape rate of women.

NISVS 2016/2017

In NISVS 2016/2017, nearly all the 12-month statistics for women seemed to double or more in the 2016 report compared to 2012 (ex. 2.85m vs 1.47m for rape), but the 12-month for men seemed pretty similar for both reports (ex. 1.90m vs 1.93m for rape & "made to penetrate"). 

It's interesting that although the 12-month figures stayed about the same for men, the lifetime figures changed significantly. In the 2012 report, 5.9% of men reported having been made to penetrate at some point during their life. In the 2016/2017 report, 10.7% of men reported the same lifetime statistic.

This is in spite of the negligable difference between the 2012 and 2016/2017 reports' 12-month statistics. In the 2012 report, the number was 1.5%; in the 2016/2017 report, the number was 1.3%. (Note that the 2012 report gave a 95% confidence interval for this statistic of 1.2% to 1.8%; it's quite possible that the actual number in 2012 was 1.3%, and that there was no real difference between the two reports.)

Why would the 12-month statistic stay the same, while the lifetime statistic increase significantly, over the course of 4 years? There are a ton of potential reasons, of course, so there's no saying with certainty. However, my gut tells me that actual amount of rapes probably wouldn't have changed significantly over such a small time period. I could, however, see meaningful changes in culture occurring over such a time period. After all, people have been quickly evolving how they form their opinions based on social media and online news sources.