Seduction is a numbers game.

There is an intrinsic element of randomness in the Seduction process. You can never predict if a woman will like you or not, even when you try your best. You need to always consider this random factor. Every time you ask a woman out, you take the risk of rejection. No matter who you are, and even if you do everything perfectly by the book, rejection is always a possibility.

The sooner you’ll accept it, the better.

Let’s think in terms of probabilities and let’s try to derive an equation to compute the probability of successfully getting a date.

Suppose you meet a woman for the first time, for instance during a party. You don’t find desirable all the women you meet in your life, so the first component of the equation is the probability Pd that you like her. Let’s assume you find her very desirable. We both know that you won’t necessarily go and talk to her. Let’s call Pc the probability that you have the courage to initiate the first contact.

Now that you are talking to her for the first time, you should already have a good guess if she belongs to the ‘Uninterested’ category or to the ‘Neutral’/’Interested’ categories. Let’s define Pu the probability that she falls into the ‘Uninterested’ category.

So, at this point, you are talking to a woman that you like, who is either ‘Neutral’ or ‘Interested’. At the end of the interaction, you ask her out. The probability Pa that she accepts to go on a date with you depends largely on your communication skills (your 'game').

So, finally, the overall probability Pdate that you go on a date with a woman you have just met is:

Pdate = Pd x Pc x (1-Pu) x Pa

A few remarks about those probabilities:

• Pu, the probability that she belongs to the ‘Uninterested’ category, is composed of two components: the probability Pna that she is unavailable (either because she is already in a relationship or because she doesn’t want to meet someone) and the probability Pnat that she is available but has very low attraction for you. It then follows that: Pu = Pna x Pnat . You have no control over Pna simply because you can’t control what is happening in her life. However, Pnat is inversely proportional to your overall attractiveness (looks, social status, body language...), but even very Attractive men don’t achieve Pnat = 0. Indeed, every woman has her own taste in men, and no single man can be compatible with every woman. To force compatibility with every woman you like would require you to be manipulative and disingenuous to both her and you.
• The probability Pa that a ‘Neutral’/’Interested’ woman will go on a date with you (concluding the Attraction Phase) is directly proportional to your communication skills, sometimes refers as your ‘Game’. You may have a very high social status or good looks, and still not get a lot of success with women because of bad communicational behaviors, like hiding your desire for her or being very needy. In this case, you will have a very low Pnat but, also, a very low Pa.

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Let’s consider a numerical example.

Let’s say that you meet quite a few desirable women (Pd = 20%) but that most of them are unavailable, which is usually the case (Pu = 60%). You are confident and you go and talk to most of the women you are attracted to (Pc = 90%). Your communication skills are above average (Pa=60%). With those numbers, we end up with a probability of meeting a girl you like and going on a date with her of... Pdate = 4%!

So, if you meet 100 new women, you will get on average 4 dates. Sometimes more. Sometimes less. In other words, if you want a date, on average you need to meet 25 new women. Sometimes more. Sometimes less.

A very important concept is the number Nwomen of new women you should meet so, on average, you get one date. Nwomen = 1 / Pdate . We all have our own personal Nwomen. The more Attractive you are, the lower this number is. It’s very important to have a rough estimation of this number. Think of this number as a statistical barrier you must surpass if you want to get significant results.

The average guy has a Nwomen between 40 to 60, Attractive men below 30 and unattractive men above (sometimes way above) 75.

The big problem becomes then: how many new women are you meeting each week? I’m guessing that this number is not very high. If you spend every day doing the same things with the same people, you are not likely to meet a lot of new women.

If the number of women you meet is low compared to Nwomen, chances are you will never have any meaningful success with women. If you only do a few experiments, randomness will weigh heavily on the results. In probability theory, this is called the sampling fluctuations. With more experiments, the randomness is smoothed out until the results converge to the average. This is known as the Law of Large Numbers: the average of the results obtained from a large number of experiments should be close to the expected value (your personal Nwomen**) and will tend to become closer as more experiments are performed.**

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If you liked this post, it is a sample of my book "The Seduction Catalyst" which you can on Amazon in ebook and paperback version (link: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B081Y6KYYW) :)