TLDR: Introduce the optimism bias, FR of me falling prey to it, Advice sought

The optimism bias is a well known bias in human thinking:

1) We have a bias towards believing that a bad event is less likely to happen to us than others.

2) We also have a bias towards thinking of ourselves in a more positive light than an objective view (e.g. attractiveness, intelligence). This is useful for things like increasing our self esteem.

Regarding 1), this can be a bad thing. When asked how likely we are to get cancer in our lifetime, we tend to underestimate. Even when presented with the correct figures and asked again, we STILL underestimate!

This cognitive bias influenced my last weekend, and played a role in me losing frame and succumbing to beta tendencies, even while knowing the right thing to do, i underestimated how likely it was my behaviour would lead to a fail, and did it anyway.

It is of utmost importance that we base our actions on logic and reason, while trying to minimise the effect of biases like the optimism bias, the confirmation bias, etc.

This is how i fucked up:

I am newish to this small social group (met through my cousin), and added people on facebook including an attractive girl. Shes a 7-8/10 looks wise, yet abuses some drugs and has a few other negative characteristics (poor hobbies, unsuccessful friends, probably been dicked a lot). Not LTR material for sure. I do want to fuck her.

  • I was cocky/funny on facebook messenger and got her phone number. I suggested we meet for drinks/movie at mine. She turned down the day i suggested but offered an alternative day which was 4 days away, she also wanted to watch a disney movie, whatever. Agree and amplify worked well here.

  • I didnt contact until the day she suggested. I asked her what time she was coming via txt. In my opinion, this was sound.

  • She flaked with the excuse of having a headache, asked if we could "do this another time". Her flake could be for a number of reasons. I'll list them below in the order i believe is most likely, based on my gut instinct, knowledge of human behaviour (thanks TRP), and information i have received from her best friend. FWIW, in hindsight i guage her attraction to me as "attracted but not overly so".

1) She got cold feet: Movie and drinks is basically a euphemism for sex, and it was bold offering this as our first "hang out together" thing. She agreed to the plan at first, but as it became more of a reality she backed out. She has a history of flaking on friends, and usually makes guys put in a lot of work (enjoys the attention). A major factor behind her getting cold feet would be a lack of attraction for me - i believe she was attracted but not enough to drive 20 miles to fuck me.

2) She didnt want to be alone with me since we don't know each other well. Straight to drinks at some guys house who you are only kinda attracted to? A bit too much maybe.

3) She really did have a headache.

3rd equal) Got a better offer from tinder or some other guy she knows. There is not much evidence to suggest this is the case.

Regardless of the cause of her flake, i still had the chance to fuck her in the future if i played my cards right.

Me: Hey, what time are you coming over tonight?

Her - 2 hours later: Hey can we do this another time? I have a headache and tried to sleep it off but it didnt go away, might stay in bed lol

What i should have done here is plainly obvious. She has made her decision on whether she is coming over or not already. A simple "K" would be perfect. I EVEN KNEW THIS AT THE TIME. I thought about it, and knew that this was the best response. "K" followed by silence for a week or so and then re-evaluate.

However, the optimism bias reared its ugly head. Unsavoury thoughts were running through my mind: "She might still come over if i play this right, I still have a chance tonight, Sure "K" is the best reply, but if i send her more txts she might come over". We all should know that more txts here is a stupid move. It shows im overly invested, and desperate for her to come. I KNEW THIS. Yet i was overly optimistic "that wont happen to me". When faced with the raw data (shes made her decision, i know the right play), I was overly optimistic and made a subpar play that i knew was foolish:

Me: Headache? Lol take an aspirin and come hang out

Bad move. By itself not horrible, but i kept digging...

Her: I did and i tried to sleep it off but it didnt work! I took my contacts out cos they were sore and my glasses gave me a headache.

Her decision is cemented. Again this is a chance i can just say K.

Me: Maybe another time then

a meh response. I could have left it there. I should have left it there. I know she isnt coming. I know that it will kill any attraction if i contact her. The optimism bias strikes again - "But surely she will find this funny rather than desperate"

Me (3 hours later): The little mermaid isnt as good as i remember, youre gonna have to make this up to me!

Behold. here i am begging for her attention like the little beta bitch i have always been, and have tried to hard to overcome. This also shows that im not out doing other things but im sitting around thinking of her. She is officially on the pedestal. Fuck! I obviously wasnt watching that movie, i just craved her. I remember thinking before writing this "dont do it, its begging, it will make it worse". However, the optimism bias played a role - "well i know its bad, but if i do it it wont be soooo bad, she might like it"

Her: hahaha i havent seen it... i would have chosen something like.... [disney movie]. great movie!

Noncommital response from her. You can probably sense her pussy drying up from behind your screen

Me: Lol i was kidding im not watching disney movies alone (crying while laughing emoticon). when are you gonna apologise in person for flaking?

Her: Heres my apology, lol..... sorry (alien face emoticon - whatever that means)

Boom. The pussy walls slam shut with a vice-like clamp. I still want to punch myself in the balls when i cringe after reading that. I havent txted her since.

I fucked up by underestimating how badly my behaviour would influence the situation here. If anyone else asked my advice, i would have given them the correct answer. However, myself? I was too optimistic and let that cloud my judgement.

There were other things at play here too, but i didnt want to make a point about them as they are well known here:

-Scarcity mentallity.

-Clouded judgement by the vague sense of getting some nice pussy

I hope some of you can get something out of this. Namely that we all overestimate positive things about ourselves (and the effects of our behaviour), while underestimating negative things that we may cause.

I now have a question for you.

In my opinion, i still have a shot with this girl. I fucked up bad, but I am objectively more attractive, more successful and have a more fun personality than her male friends. Her best friend (my cousins gf) sings my praises to her. She got cold feet, and i turned it into a scenario where she lost attraction. She doesn't know me well, and i can build this again by demonstrating high SMV (better body than her male friends, better dressing, better career prospects, better banter, more confidence and the willingness to take risks)

I say this while keeping in mind the optimism bias. I may not be able to rid it entirely, but i can lessen its effects by being aware of them.

I'm going to go diving/spearfishing tomorrow reasonably close to her suburb. I havent talked to her for 6 days. Only contact has been a funny snapchat i sent to all my friends, her included. She sent a boring snapchat in response that i ignored.

I am considering sending her a txt tomorrow:

"Hey name, im going for a dive at area today at around 4pm. Want to come hang out at the beach? I'll pick you up on my way"

Spearfishing is a high value activity. It demonstrates i have a good hobby, it shows my physique, it is a hunting activity. It will get us alone together where we can get to know each other. During small social gatherings it is hard to game her as other people are in close proximity. Getting her alone is half the battle

Now, with this goal in mind: Fucking this girl in the future. what do you think i should do? Im not worried about losing cred in the social group, she is the only attractive female who is single. I have other friends and arent close to this group. What is the best way to act with the goal of eventually fucking her?

I am going to act here however the consensus thinks. I have made the mistake before of disregarding TRP advice based on my feelz and the optimism bias. What do you think i should do? Is it a bitch move to contact her? Will it possibly work? Will it deliver the final nail into her attraction for me, or will it pry open the lid?