How accurate is this facebook status about false rape accusations?

gndn · 2014-04-06T21:47:43+00:00

nearly 60% of rapes are never reported at all.

There is literally no way of knowing this statistic. You could say that there are a billion unreported rapes per day and there's simply no way of ever confirming that number. That 60% claim is therefore complete and utter speculation.

ARedthorn · 2014-04-06T21:53:15+00:00

Yes, absolutely, and there's a reason it works that way.

Innocent until proven guilty has a couple consequences.

One is that if someone is found 'not guilty' it doesn't mean they didn't do it- it means the case is inconclusive. A certain number of those are going to be false accusations (perhaps the girl was raped, but not by the guy she accused). That 2-8% represents the number of cases that were PROVEN to be false accusations, usually because the accuser withdrew her accusation, admitting to it. So let's just talk about conclusive cases, shall we? Given that roughly 15% of reported cases end up in a guilty verdict... only those are conclusively proven true. The remaining 77-83% (whether 'not guilty' or 'not charged') are exactly inconclusive. We can't say much of anything one way or the other about them. I mean, certainly, they're all either innocent or guilty, but unproven EITHER WAY, and there's nothing more we can say about them.

Sure, 60% go unreported (in theory, according to studies that are only moderately trustworthy). But those are also inconclusive. One can say just as much about the ~95% of male-victim rapes that (again, in theory, according to moderately trustworthy studies) go unreported too. Inconclusive. This isn't marginalizing the victim. This is being true to a judicial system that's designed to protect people from wrongful accusation.

So, in response... I would say this: <15% of all reported cases are proven conclusively true. ~5% of all reported cases are proven conclusively false. The rest are just inconclusive... reported or not. Even assuming NONE of those 15% get overturned (and many do), that's still one proven false claim for every 3 proven true. That sounds like a problem to me.

You encourage more to come forward. Hell, I'll help you there. And I'll encourage them to PROVE it. Because... that's what the law is built on. Anything less would be draconian, barbaric, and ignorant.

ralphswanson · 2014-04-06T22:17:34+00:00

There have been numerous formal studies giving a false accusation rates ranging from 1.5-8% to 90% (see wikipedia). The difficulty of the research and the wide disparity in conclusions makes these figures questionable. Nevertheless, anyone quoting only the one extreme as 'the rate' ought to be called out on their dishonesty.

2014-04-07T00:35:43+00:00

Even if the number is really around 5%, and not higher (which it probably is since this number is just reports that are demonstrably false), that's not an insignificant amount. Would you be annoyed if you lost a ticket for a raffle you joined with 19 other people? Would you feel nervous going into surgery with a 5% fatality rate? I just don't know why 2-8% is framed as only 2-8%.

Plus, this problem and the under-reporting problem shouldn't be in opposition to each other. Some solutions to one would be a solution to the other, too. For example: If there wasn't a negative stigma attached to sex, then accurate reporting would go up because women wouldn't be afraid of being considered dirty or whatever, and false reporting would go down because women wouldn't feel like they have to make up excuses for why they had sex.

So really, citing that 2-8% statistic like it excuses a low burden of proof, or dismissing it because problems are "worse" for victims—these are both bullshit.

frackzilla · 2014-04-07T02:26:27+00:00

How in the world can you figure how many rapes go unreported? There's no way to reliably count them unless they're reported. I always call BS on stuff like this.

Jonas223XC · 2014-04-07T02:32:01+00:00

the 2-8% statistic is actually just made up, as is any number that claims to quantify how many rapes are unreported. If they are "unreported" then how do you know about them at all?

Read a thread about it here: http://www.reddit.com/r/MensRights/comments/1o74n7/facts_and_statistics_about_false_rape_claims_a/

WomenAreAlwaysRigh · 2014-04-07T02:54:25+00:00

The 2% was traced back to one single source: the book "against our will" by Susan Brownmiller. In turn, her source is some unpublished lecture by some policewoman of the NYPD rape squad. Seriously, it's that vague.

So I say your numbers are inaccurate. In fact, it's been found that 25% of men initially accused of rape are shown to be innocent by DNA tests.

themanshow · 2014-04-07T06:18:10+00:00

It really depends on what a person's role in society is. If a person's role is 'rape victim hotline operator' then they should believe it happened. It's their job to provide support for victims, not investigate or anything. If a person's role is the police, then they have to protect innocent people from being wrongly convicted of crimes.

Basically, what these people are saying is, "When women claim they are victimized by men, then we should assume guilt. And if you disagree with me, you're literally causing people to get raped. Why do you support rape?"

WhoIsHarlequin · 2014-04-07T06:46:36+00:00

Innocent before proven guilty, innocent before proven guilty, innocent before proven guilty, innocent before proven guilty, innocent before proven guilty, innocent before proven guilty.

Pecanpig · 2014-04-07T12:59:53+00:00

BAM!

2014-04-06T21:48:52+00:00

Sometimes I wonder. Is it rapists going around making such bold claims. Do they commit rape and then see that 60% don't report it. Otherwise, how do they know it? Many women could be lying on surveys. Only way to make such bold claims is to actually go out here and rape and rape so it becomes a statistically significant sample size. Therefore I feel very uneasy when I hear such a bold claim. That they know something we don't can only mean they're a rapist. That's the only way to know.

rightsbot · 2014-04-06T21:14:22+00:00

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Title	How accurate is this facebook status about false rape accusations?
Author	tatertaught
Upvotes	10
Comments	23
Date	April 6, 2014 9:12 PM UTC (12 years ago)
Subreddit	Posted in /r/MensRights
Original Link	https://old.reddit.com/r/MensRights/comments/22des0/how_accurate_is_this_facebook_status_about_false/
Archive Link	https://theredarchive.com/r/MensRights/how-accurate-is-this-facebook-status-about-false.1001956 https://theredarchive.com/post/1001956

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