So I decided to take some time and look at the past few Congressional elections and see if there's a pattern among elections in which

a) a man and a woman are competing for the same seat

b) a man and woman are among the two front runners.

Compiling data from the 2006, 2008 and 2010 Congressional elections, I've arrived at the following:

302 elections that meet a) and b)

Elections won by women: 178(59%)

Won by men: 124(41%)

Of the elections won by women, 151 were won by the incumbent. This is 84.8% of the elections of won by women.

Of the elections won by men, 93 were won by the incumbent. This is 75% of the elections won by men.

Now of the remaining 27 elections won by women that were not won by the incumbent, 11 were won over the incumbent. This is to distinguish when the incumbent retires and seat is opened up. 40.7% of these elections were won over the incumbent, meaning of those given a "first chance" and poor performance of the incumbent is not an advantage to them is 59.3%

For men, 16 of the remaining 31 were won over the incumbent, or 51.6%. That means 48.4% of elections where men won and were not the incumbent the incumbent's performance was not a factor.

TL:DR: From 2006-2010, when facing men and when both are a main party candidate, women win elections more often, are more likely to be re-elected, and are more likely to win when the incumbent's performance(and thus re-election) is not a factor.