What should our null hypothesis be?

AshleyYakeley · 2014-05-02T07:01:08+00:00

You need to distinguish between the null hypothesis and the default assumption. The null hypothesis is quite clear: it's that there is no difference between the sexes (for some attribute). That's what null means.

But there's no reason why such a thing should be "assumed" by "default". Instead, from a Bayesian point of view, we each have our own estimates of the probabilities prior to some particular given evidence, based on whatever observations, guesses, hearsay, evidence circumstantial or significant we might already have.

For example:

Null hypothesis: men and women are of the same average height
Alternative hypothesis: men and women are of different average height

Let's say you are unaware of any scientific studies of the matter. Indeed, perhaps you live in pre-scientific times. Which would be a better assumption prior to evidence from a population study?

myfriendscantknow · 2014-05-01T21:04:28+00:00

This is a tricky question to answer because it has to do with statistical analysis, psychology, and sociology in a very broad and complex way. To apply these concepts in judging what an individual person might be like would prove to be exceptionally difficult, but that is exactly what TRP attempts to do. I think the normal, or "blue pill", null hypothesis would be that people should be judged individually, and race, gender, and sexuality should not factor into that judgement unless directly relevant. For instance, you shouldn't think someone is stupid because they are black, and you shouldn't think someone is illogical just because they are a woman. That, I think, is the null hypothesis. TRP attempts to handwave this with "NAWALT" and insisting that they are talking in generalizations, but why are generalizations useful when dealing with individuals? TRP is, at least in part, a guide to interpersonal relations. Mainstream opinion is that you should stay away from generalizations and stereotypes when dealing with individuals.

imissedaword · 2014-05-02T01:06:26+00:00

I think I have heard a shift from feminist in the last few years. Their argument seems to be, "of course the sexes are different, but those differences don't matter or are minimal." I think this is the baseline used by society but the baseline will continue to move towards the RP view because of what feminism demands. Equality demands 50% representation through special programs. It demands the cost of maternity care and BC be borne by men through mandated programs. As feminism in it's current form progresses more and more people will think like TRP.

Bonig · 2014-05-02T07:01:36+00:00

First of all there is no such thing as common BP because BP is the entire range outside the RP extreme, from a moderately conservative position to radfems.

To me the default assumption is what is linked with T is real, because it is well-studied. E.g. liking competition vs. liking cooperation. Anything that is not linked with T (like honor, honesty, "hamstering", rationality) is probably bullshit.

However we should also take into consideration that T is also influenced by socialization. I had a sheltered upbringing as a man, I am around 380 in T levels in my thirties, and yes, I am more of a cooperation-oriented than competition-oriented guy.

SirNemesis · 2014-05-02T00:41:42+00:00

TRP is backed up by sexual dimorphism in other species. That or the animal kingdom is filled with patriarchies.

[deleted] · 2014-05-02T08:26:46+00:00

the default assumption on sex differences should be that they don't exist unless proven otherwise by empirical studies

Well, to be technical that's a pretty easily null hypothesis to reject as stated given physical differences between the sexes. Of course, both sides assume a distribution that slightly overlaps (i.e., we know that some women are stronger than some men, but that does not hold for the majority of cases).

Posts with a well stated hypothesis and at least some supporting points to start a discussion would be a welcome change in general.

[deleted] · 2014-05-02T15:58:38+00:00

Null hypothesis can and should be whatever pattern the researcher feels like warrants studying.

Proper research methods will account for what you choose the null hypothesis to be. And I think that's where things are lacking moreso than how null hypotheses are framed.

A more "RP" position on this would be that we should default to the predictions that evolutionary psychology makes,

As a sidenote, I don't believe this would be RP's position. Evolutionary psychology INHERENTLY does not assume we evolved directly from animals, just that we are a species subject to the laws of evolution, so there are no "predictions" to be made. Evolutionary psychology's primary focus is to detect patterns existing in humans at the moment and then trace them backwards through time and species. Some things we share in animals, but we have also evolved many traits and characteristics that you only see in our species.

MasterGolbez · 2014-05-05T10:20:24+00:00

I think most rational people believe that gender roles are a mix of biology and culture. Hardcore RPers think it's all biology while radfems think it's all culture. The question is how much is biology and how much is culture? Personally, I think gender roles are mostly biology thus I lean RP.

boscoist · 2014-05-01T20:34:48+00:00

"null hypothesis refers to a general or default position: that there is no relationship between two measured phenomena." wikipedia.

The BP position you describe is fundamentally flawed, there are clear biological difference between the sexes. The best baseline for studying innate behavioral differences between sexes is probably in our relatives (chimps/monkeys). After that we can look at ourselves and observe what is similar and different and how our evolution has lead to different appearance and behaviors.

Remember the RP position is nominally to accept the world as it is and work on ourselves to achieve the desired results in the modern world. Thats where the red pill from the matrix comes from and the idea of being unplugged and "seeing the desert of the real."

EDIT: I love getting downvotes on a DEBATE sub.

Title	What should our null hypothesis be?
Author	[deleted]
Upvotes	8
Comments	71
Date	May 1, 2014 8:18 PM UTC (12 years ago)
Subreddit	Posted in /r/PurplePillDebate
Original Link	https://old.reddit.com/r/PurplePillDebate/comments/24hfte/what_should_our_null_hypothesis_be/
Archive Link	https://theredarchive.com/r/PurplePillDebate/what-should-our-null-hypothesis-be.285788 https://theredarchive.com/post/285788

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