Hey guys. Do I have a chance in sustaining my 50-50 custody in this case, or even winning majority custody? Mediators seem to say no, and lawyers seem to say up to the individual judge.

My ex wants to move in with her boyfriend in upstate NJ and change custody so she has him 80% of the time. Right now we have 50-50 physical custody and he goes to school in my town. She lives in my town with her parents. This was after I spent $25K on lawyer fees (she spent $15K on her own) going back and forth - we didn't even go to court. At that point she was witholding my son from me and wouldn't allow me to see him. Mediators didn't care about this either and actually used it as a point against me to get less than 50-50. Finally got her to agree to a settlement - but she proceeded to harrass my gf who i only met twice physically at that point on social media under fake identities, and her family started harassing me for external payment for things that were gifted to her that she left in the house (I had made a lump payment to her and agreed to allow her to take what she wanted but she didn't want the physical items).

She wants to enroll him into kindergarten next year up in her BF's town. He currently attends private pre-kindergarden full time, and is also in public pre-school for special ed program. He has been recommended for public school full time disability kindergarten based on evaluation from psychologist, speech therapist and his teacher. Her lawyer sent a threatening letter that she is going to ask for a court order that he does not attend public school disability program and instead remains in private-kindergarten (which we're paying $2000 a month for). Our public school and special ed program is top of the state while her bf school district is below average.

Talked to multiple mediators and lawyers. All the mediators try to get me to give her majority custody due to the child's age (just turned 5) and argument that these are critical 'impressionable years for child to be with the mother. Every lawyer expressed that it would depend purely on Judge's whims.

She has made an offer that she would not seek increase in child support in exchange for accepting this agreement. My feeling is that she can agree to this, but then just go ahead and demand more child support because child support is not permanently forfeit based on any agreement/settlement. Also she can then make another decision to move again further and I'd have less say in the child custody implication.

In case it is relevant, About me, I'm re-married, earn low 6 figures, have masters degree and professional designation. Own the house that I am living in.