Are false rape claims really a minority?

redditorriot · 2016-04-15T00:15:19+00:00

Is there any good study done to determine how many claims are false?

No, there isn't.

Number of proven rapes = x%

Number of proven false allegations = y%

Unknown z = 100-x-y%

Both x and y are quite small numbers, so z is a large percentage. Which of these in z are actual rapes and which are false allegations is open to speculation, but only that.

Having said that, I'd take the favorite feminist figure of 2% with a huge pinch of salt.

Imnotmrabut · 2016-04-15T01:10:19+00:00

The Truth behind Legal Dominance Feminism's Two Percent False Rape Claim

It is indisputably true that, largely through the efforts of legal dominance feminists, there now exists a consensus among legal academics that only two percent of rape complaints are false.

This purportedly empirical statement is ubiquitously repeated in legal literature. Dozens of law review articles reiterate that no more than one in fifty rape complaints is false. This empirical fact, however, is an ideological fabrication.

B. The Problems with Determining the Percentage of False Rape Claims

As far as can be ascertained, no study has ever been published which sets forth an evidentiary basis for the "two percent false rape complaint" thesis. "Measuring false allegations is all the more difficult since policies on unfounded criminal complaints differ from one jurisdiction to another, resulting in very different numbers."

there is no plausible reason to believe that almost all complaints of rape are true. On the contrary, aside from the limited probative empirical evidence on the issue, there are a number of good reasons to think that a significant fraction of rape complaints, far in excess of two percent, are false. By way of comparison, there is an elaborate body of literature and numerous examples suggesting that a significant number-way beyond the two percent range--of capital murder convictions are of innocent men. Why should criminal trials involving sexual assaults on women be more accurately discriminating than those involving capital homicide?

D. The Two Percent False Claim Figure Is Unreliable

At the outset, it becomes apparent that LDF's two percent false claim figure is highly problematic. An examination of its genesis reveals that the two percent false claim figure is an illusion that sprang from a mimeoed handout in Susan Brownmiller's file. To support this proposition, one needs to engage in a sort of academic archaeology and consider one of the main exponents of the two percent figure.

Despite the plethora of pyramided citations, it turns out that there is one, and only one, underlying source-feminist publicist Susan Brownmiller's interpretation of some data, now a quarter century old, of unknown provenance from a single police department unit. There are no other published studies that this author could find. All of the sources cited at the outset of this Article trace back to Ms. Brownmiller.

Edward Greer,The Truth behind Legal Dominance Feminism's Two Percent False Rape Claim Figure, 33 Loy. L.A. L. Rev. 947 (2000)

cgwriter · 2016-04-15T04:11:01+00:00

Dunno. Anecdotally, I've talked to a few cops and they say the basic accusation that leads nowhere and usually ends up being rescinded happens all the time. Like, all the time, emphasis being theirs. Crime in general is very difficult to track. Most rape statistics are all over the place and a lot can at best just depend upon conviction rates, and false allegations only seem to get tallied if it goes through the court system and is found out there.

Also anecdotal, but virtually every single big media-magnet "rape case" in the past ten years has been false and that is with a very active, very hungry witch-hunt for the crime and its criminals. Everyone's chomping at the bit to find the next big awful 'rape' crime, but so far they're eating dirt over and over. Make of that what you will.

civilsaint · 2016-04-15T01:38:29+00:00

The national average in 2007 was 5% according to the FBI, which is lower than in the past, but these still have to fit a strict definition. They cite the 'unfounded/false' category which requires evidence beyond just recanting in order to fall in that category. There is also 'unfounded baseless' and 'informational', the latter of which means that the accuser is believed to be telling the truth, but the incident does not rise to the level of a crime, meaning no actual assault happened. Surprisingly, this is 19%. Take that into account when you think of how many stories are stretched to make a crime where nothing happened. It is common to exaggerate stories to the police.

Read this article http://www.datagoneodd.com/blog/2015/01/27/how-to-lie-and-mislead-with-rape-statistics-part-2/ It has a great in-depth analysis of the numbers from a feminist group itself. The writer just takes their numbers and shows a fuller picture. You can click on a link at the bottom to the first part of the story.

Only 37% of reports lead to arrest, and we know that not all of these are truthful as is found out later in the legal process.

As for that 5% number, and interesting thing is that in Philadelphia, a committee of 4 feminist groups review ALL sexual crimes to determine how the police should handle them and categorize them. Even with this, Philadelphia has a 10% unfounded/false rate...double the national average!

Given the extreme bias in the group reviewing police reports, it is safe to say that this is the floor for the number.

lostapwbm · 2016-04-15T04:53:14+00:00

False rape reports, by percentage, are more prevalent than pregnancies that are the result of rape or incest.

Wargame4life · 2016-04-15T09:58:03+00:00

the actual answer is no one knows, anyone who claims to know is basically trying to tell you something as stupid as "30% of all statements are lies" without actually having a system process or data pool of truth to distinguish lies from truth.

anyone who is not a complete cretin understands there is a more stringent narrower definied criteria of proof to distinguish something as a confirmed false report.

i.e for rape to be treated as "Genuine" it only has to appear in some form of statistical metric, rape kit, hospital visit, police report etc, for a rape to be deemed false it needs to be proven false either via court or through investigation shows the allegation is false without any doubt.

rape accusations with no evidence are included as "genuine" but they could be false, there is no way of knowing.

what these fucktards who claim 2-8% are doing is comparing oranges to coconuts and completely blinding themselves to the fact they are comparing completely different data.

basically the curse of the interent, fucking morons who know nothing about statistics thinking they are correct or providing insight on something that is categorically by definition unknown

zulu127 · 2016-04-15T12:10:46+00:00

A small study found that 45% of rape claims were false.

KrisK_lvin · 2016-04-15T12:46:58+00:00

From the article (my emphasis):

Specifically, in their analysis of sexual-assault cases at a large university, the authors found that 5.9 percent of cases were provably false. However, 44.9 percent cases “did not proceed” – meaning there was insufficient evidence, the accuser was uncooperative, or the incident did not meet the legal standard of assault. An additional 13.9 percent of cases could not be categorized due to lack of information.

The "accuser was uncooperative” and "could not be categorized due to lack of information" … now thereby hang some intriguing tales, I’m sure.

I would be absolutely fascinated to see an example of how exactly an “accuser” gets to be defined as “uncooperative”.

^edit [It suggests] many things, not least of which is the possibility of someone refusing to answer questions once the evident contradictions in their version of events begin to unravel.

Likewise "lack of information” - an accuser who was too drunk to remember details (or even whether or not what they think happened to them did in fact happen) springs to mind, but I also wonder whether or not that includes third party reporting - you know, reporting of the ‘I-saw-this-message-from-a-girl-on-Facebook-and-it-sure-sounds-like-rape.

EgoandDesire · 2016-04-15T03:15:05+00:00

I dont know and im sure I dont care. What matters is Trust but Verify. Always.

TheDude41 · 2016-04-15T05:30:12+00:00

They're a lot more than that.

A lot of cases are women who are butthurt about something that happened during sex or afterwards, that wasn't sexual assault.

It's pretty easy to just fudge things to make something into something it was not.

Imthere · 2016-04-15T13:22:02+00:00

From another comment of mine:

See http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2697788

See Section D:

" This paper then discusses the most common reasons for wrongful convictions and examines a statewide study in Virginia that found the rate of wrongful convictions was approximately 15 percent,..."

Not allegations, but convictions. Which means that the rate of false allegations cannot possibly be smaller than 15%. The author of the paper concludes that the best indications for false allegations is 40%. But that there isn't sufficient data to definitively say that.

Go read the article. It's eye-opening. He systematically dismantles the lies of feminist researchers. Who count "unfounded" accusations as "definitely rape".

casablanca_1942 · 2016-04-17T15:14:19+00:00

http://boysmeneducation.com/avfms-mega-post-10-reasons-false-rape-accusations-are-common/

The link above explains why false rape accusations are common.

Wargame4life · 2016-04-15T10:07:29+00:00

what many morons here wont understand however is that for any specific rape case itself the presence of false reporting or genuine rape is absolutely irrelevant to the case or trial of an individual.

if 99.9% of rape accusations were false that has absolutely no bearing what so ever on if the alleged rape by the defendant is guilty or not.

its a fundamental principle of justice and too many idiots dont understand why its so important.

in simple terms, if you believe statistical liklihood has relevance then you should prosecute every lottery winner for theft because the odds of them winning the lottery is so remote its more likley they stole it, but obviously as teh courts serve the whole population there is no question genuine lottery winners would be captured.

people dont understand the difference between the probability of a specific individual and the population as a whole.

fucking morons everywhere who dont understand this (not targetted at this subreddit just in general)

Asher-D · 2016-04-17T15:52:58+00:00

Given that so many rape claims that make it to the news turn out to be false, I would think that more than a minority of rape claims are false, but also can't really make a generalisation from what gets in the news to the public.

Title	Are false rape claims really a minority?
Author	JimGusa
Upvotes	38
Comments	29
Date	April 15, 2016 12:11 AM UTC (10 years ago)
Subreddit	Posted in /r/MensRights
Original Link	https://old.reddit.com/r/MensRights/comments/4eu4on/are_false_rape_claims_really_a_minority/
Archive Link	https://theredarchive.com/r/MensRights/are-false-rape-claims-really-a-minority.951769 https://theredarchive.com/post/951769

Comments