What will the end of the decline actually look like?

HAMMURABl · 2015-10-25T16:13:46+00:00

i think the big question is whether the decline will be slow and steady as in japan, or quick and dirty as in brazil.

japan's decline is more subtle, because your real wage is simply declining each year, and the stock markets will simply fall each year a few percent. its subtle because there is no sudden stop, no sudden move; the country just stops advancing technologically and economically (anyone who has visited tokyo after the mid nineties should know what i mean).

brazils current decline is more due to a collapse in their nations intelligence, whereby the productive people simply have gotten outbred by idiots and demand more and more free gibsmedats each year. the more welfare state they demand, the stronger this effect becomes which turns into a vicious circle within a very short time, that will ultimately also in an economic collapse, but unlike the japanese version, is accompanied by a significant rise in violence and other crime.

given the rise of the welfare state and the increase in idiots in western nations, my bets are strongly on a brazil-like collapse. due to influx of uneducated arabs and africans into europe at the moment, i am confident in my prediction of a european collapse before 2035.

note that both japan and brazil do not have collapsed yet, but are collapsing. japans collapse is unique and is the first of its kind, so hard to say out it ultimately ends. for brazil, look at zimbabwe.

redpillbanana · 2015-10-25T20:10:35+00:00

Here's my prediction. The decline of the Roman Empire is probably a good model in many ways:

Obesity continues to rise - 80% of the population is classified as obese, 95% overweight. Large food producers continue to market their products in an effort to get more calories consumed. Unhealthy eating becomes even more trendy as people post photos of their triple-bacon burger online. Taco Bell introduces the "5th meal" campaign. Medical advances allow people to stay alive at larger weights.
Bread and Circuses: people become obsessed with social media, sports, games, and entertainment news and don't pay attention to actual important issues.
Rise of the taker/leech class: the government continues to pay people to not work, and more and more people discover that they are financially better off not working or being underemployed. Immigrants also flood the borders for their free benefits. The populace vote for the politicians that give them more free stuff.
Fiscal decline: debt continues to grow and more of the budget goes towards paying interest. Governments lower interest rates in order to reduce their debt burden which causes inflation. As real wages go down, taxes go up to compensate. Corporate welfare and military-industrial complex continues to grow. Entitlements continue to grow, also pushing taxes up. More and more people put their money into gold and bitcoin to combat inflation until the government outlaws and confiscates it.
War: powerful countries lash out with their militaries for several reasons: (1) wars distract people from the troubles at home, (2) military-industrial complex lobbies for war, (3) as powerful countries lose influence, they become desperate. Wars are expensive, resulting in more debt and more taxes.
Wealth inequality: more and more capital is concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. Automation and technology amplify this trend. The ever-increasing complexity of the legal system encourages rent-seeking behaviors over productive behaviors.
Prison: prison population continues to grow as more and more behaviors are criminalized and due to lobbying by the prison-industrial complex. Free speech is attacked both by government and by the cultural marxists. The increase in the prison population causes taxes to go up and the tax base to decline.
Social decline: mating rituals start to resemble those of primates as sexual behavior becomes more feral and bad life choices (e.g. single motherhood) are subsidized by the government while good life choices (e.g. marriage, stable family life) are punished. The alphas have huge harems, amplified by technology and social media, and the betas fight for the scraps. Single motherhood becomes the norm. Fertility rates plummet.
Feminization of men: schools are increasingly dominated by women and hostile to boys. Feminism is drilled into everyone and male behaviors are discouraged.
Sacrificing meritocracy for equality: appearances of equality become more important than rewarding merit. Soul Man situations become more common as people realize that it is more important to be the correct race/gender/sexual orientation than it is to be competent.
Going Galt: capable individuals start to question why they are working so hard for so little reward as they see the majority of their efforts taken away and given to social leeches, rent-seekers, war, divorce lawyers/alimony/child support, and corporate welfare. They see less-qualified individuals leapfrog them on their career track because of racial/gender quotas - and they discover that it is illegal to complain about it. Non-alphas also lose motivation because they are unlikely to find a mate. Many of the best and brightest either drop out and become like the Japanese "herbivore men" or leave the country for greener pastures abroad. Tax revenues go down accordingly and the government raises taxes to compensate. Eventually the government makes leaving the country either illegal or extremely expensive.

Kid_Crimson · 2015-10-25T15:10:05+00:00

It'll look like this. We live in a hedonistic chaotic society where nobody invests and nothing gets done. We're falling into irrelevancy as the hard working eastern economies overtake us and science gets less and less funding. People do less work, don't start families, and people are actually okay with it. This is the decline. Not everything is Visigoths knocking down buildings.

jdgalt · 2015-10-25T17:36:40+00:00

It's the same pattern seen everywhere in Latin America in the 20th century. The government kills most jobs by overregulation. The people are poor, so they demand higher and higher welfare benefits, and riot if they don't come. The government responds two ways: (1) Runaway deficit spending, until they've exhausted all the funds that anyone will lend to the government. Then they print money as the only way to pay for everything, resulting in permanent runaway inflation in the hundreds of percent per year. (2) Militarization of the police, who also become totally corrupt because they're underpaid. They stop being available to help anybody (unless paid), and just stand around on street corners with machine guns. Pretty soon it's impossible to run any business legally, so all jobs are under-the-table. It's impossible for the government to collect most taxes it's owed, but everyone bribes local officials and cops, because they can easily nail you if you don't -- it's impossible to live legally.

The US is more than halfway there already. We may as well rename ourselves the Republica de Los Bananas.

Fafner2 · 2015-10-25T15:37:06+00:00

Man stop shaving, start wearing animal skins, use bow, knife to hunt. See woman in forest alone. Determine that woman will probably feed for a week. Cook & eat woman. Caveman mgtow.

And squirrels shall molest my attic uncontested.

[deleted] · 2015-10-25T17:56:45+00:00

[permanently deleted]

savedarticles · 2015-10-25T16:11:34+00:00

Virtual reality initially ships more jobs over sees as you dont need AI to do complex human tasks. You just need a poor Indonesian to control the machine to ship this from a warehouse or make your .99 cent double hamburger. This will put downward pressure on wages. We've been making less for 40 years. Eventually we'll either have class warfare or all live virtual lives and exit from real life almost entirely.

Philhelm · 2015-10-25T17:51:10+00:00

It seems to me most likely that we'll go the way of the Roman Empire. While Rome was carved up at times, it never just suddenly disappeared. Even during the medieval era, the Byzantines considered themselves to be eastern Romans, and Frederick Barbarossa, emperor of the HRE, argued that he was in fact the emperor of the Romans. Of course, by this time, the cultures were so far removed from the Roman Empire as we thnk of it that it was non-existent.

Western culture seems hell-bent on its own self-destruction. Eventually this weak culture will be overtaken by a stronger one, but it will be over an extended period of time, and will come about through a combination of things such as low fertility, cultural shift, and possibly wars (or the negative effects of losing proxy wars). I don't expect that a war will solely be responsible.

I don't think we will know it when we see it, but it's currently in process, and one day historians will choose an arbitrary time and/or events to mark the end of the previous culture.

sub180 · 2015-10-25T18:58:23+00:00

i don't know shit about economics

I do know that once sex bots are actually better than a bad lay they will be unstoppable.

I mean right now men sex toys are kinda shitty. a silicon slice of a woman or a complete woman that's an unmovable doll you have to clean out and move and dress. zero feedback.

Imagine you swipe a bunch of tinder girls and the best one that can give you a date tonight is a 6. Your sex bot always gives you at least a 7.5 experience. You don't go on that date.

ColtsDragoon · 2015-10-25T19:41:09+00:00

Europe will devolve into warring nation-states and people of non-European ethnicity will either be killed or forcibly deported and America will likely break up into smaller nations with borders based on ethnicity and topography. I suspect a particularly nasty conflict between Mexicans and Whites.

good news is that without the industry and economy of Europe and America to support a global empire the formerly oppressed regions such as Africa and the Middle east will have breathing room to industrialize and become their own power blocks assuming that Russia or China doesn't simply take them over and do the same imperialism the west did only with greater ruthlessness

scarletspider3 · 2015-10-26T01:06:09+00:00

It probably already started with the older generation that all been divorce raped and the new generation not getting married to avoid the same fate. No real families to raise the entire next generation does not bode well for society.

DodgedAFew · 2015-10-25T16:11:34+00:00

Why look at Roman empire when you can look at USSR?

Doctor_Mayhem · 2015-10-25T21:35:00+00:00

As much as I would like to see a quick collapse of the West, the truth is that it's cheaper and easier than ever to keep people fed and entertained. Even worse, thanks to the clout and wealth that western, White nations have built up over the past century, we can feed and house the most criminal and degenerate of brown people for the next hundred years before it all comes crashing down.

If you want a picture of the future, imagine a fat sheboon twerking atop the ruins of Western civilization. Once White people become less than 30% of Western populations, the collapse will kick in.

TheRealBruce13 · 2015-10-25T16:10:06+00:00

There will be no decline any time soon. Why ? Because AI and Automation will reach a critical level and western countries have a big edge over other countries. We will live in a society more extreme where 20% produce (jobs that could not be automated and entrepeneurs) for the whole population. The only question is how to redistribute the wealth. Sure the 20% will have their fair share to reward their hard work but there should be a way to redistribute to the 80% without causing social discontent.

quietthomas · 2015-10-26T04:54:43+00:00

Gays, feminists, and Atheists (ie. Cultural Marxists) aren't the problem. A lack of worker protections are the problem. Germany has shown that the better you treat a people, the more they feel they belong to a society, the more they care for it, and the harder they work for it. But right now America (thanks to corporatism) treats it's people like pieces of shit, like the enemy:

https://www.facebook.com/ajplusenglish/videos/634233436718167/

What's needed to change this is legal protections on unionism, MORE social programs, and more of the nordic model of economics. In short: More Marxism.

This all relates to a little known theory called "Convergence Theory" it's so unknown Wikipedia doesn't have a page for it. But it's basically the theory that Marxism and Capitalism have been merging since the collapse of the USSR, adopting parts of each other... and eventually this will create a new hybrid system (you can see this in China's Capitalism). They work so hard because they ARE a part of the system, so they understand their work as improving EVERYONE'S LIVES. Where as America understands work as making the rich richer - which is demoralizing.

[deleted] · 2015-10-25T16:44:20+00:00

My prediction is that the collapse will happen sometime between 2015-2025, I give a wide range because it could vary on a multitude of factors. Namely the biggest threat to the industrial economies right now is something that is right in front of their faces, peak oil (which is the peak rate of production for oil). From that point onward it will be all but impossible to increase GDP and growth.

With all the social factors and bullshit like that it would not surprise if after the peak there was chaos and war. The best long-term solution would be to divide people up at this point instead of keeping the United States together. The West will thankfully (or not so thankfully) collapse long before it gets taken over. I would bet on that.

hebola4lyfe · 2015-10-25T17:36:17+00:00

Well in the case of the Roman Empire, there was a power struggle, the state couldn't keep itself together because of all the conflict and conflicting interests, it split into two empires and thus lost its strength in unity, and got swallowed up by Germanic tribes from the North and Persians from the East. Kind of hoping Canada will invade us with a moose army and take over and give us free healthcare.

[deleted] · 2015-10-26T01:37:01+00:00

[permanently deleted]

All-DayErrDay · 2015-10-25T22:43:16+00:00

The only people that will be truly mentally prepared are the strongest of our current generation. Newer generations will be blind folded into 'the way it is' while we adapt to our environment. I'm glad i'm only the beginning of this new internet filled generation, otherwise I would be fucked.

[deleted] · 2015-10-25T23:08:27+00:00

Decline for whom?

Maybe the US is losing its hegemony, but nowhere during my lifetime is going to become a third world country.

So, all I need is:

my health: I hit the gym hard, eat right;
money: I am doing fine in that department, and I ave the skills to adapt to any economic situation I might be faced. When I was hungry I never wanted fish, I learned to fish. Hunt. Gather. Grow and I am still learning.
I am enjoying my life: where I live, my social life, what I do, etc.
I am spinning 2 plates, securing plates to spin is the least of my worries.

I don't need anything else.

zephyrprime · 2015-10-26T16:58:57+00:00

I kinda think that the nations of the west will slowly turn into extensions of the second world countries that the many new immigrants coming into them are from. There could be a lot of violence as islamic immigrants refuse to assimilate and try to force their beliefs on others. A few countries will eventually see the other countries turning into shit and reverse course. The US will probably not be one of them because we are too much the source of the decline.

Some people on TRP think that we pride and righteous redpill men will rebuild the civilization after the fall. However, look at Rome - they never again rose to prominence they once had. At least they restored themselves to civilization after a few CENTURIES but it was never the same.

China will be the next great world power and will carry the torch of civilization.

Ultimately the cause of our downfall was too much freedom and not enough cunning to see past the lies of women.

RamsayRedbeard · 2015-10-25T15:48:36+00:00

We should all just pick one small country in Europe and head over there!

User-31f64a4e · 2015-10-26T03:26:28+00:00

tl;dr: it takes a long, long time,

The preppers like to talk about "SHTF", where all of a sudden it will all go pear-shaped in an instant - and they will bug out to their hidey-holes full of ammunition and dried food.

In reality, these things are much more to be marked by a slow decline. If you look at the decline of Rome it was a process, spanning from at least 260 to 476; Gibbons' history starts at year 98, although not all of that is strictly decline per se.

When Rome declined the state tried intrusive, draconian measures like coloni (indentured serfs, basically) and emperors instead of a republic. We have creeping authoritarianism as well - the Patriot Act, the Cybersecurity Information Security Act, the increasing militarization of police, etc.

Corruption apparently became rampant in the fall of Rome as well. Citizens United, anyone? I kid, I kid ... we have the best Congress money can buy. Wait ...

Interestingly enough, the fall of Rome was also marked by massive importation of foreigners to bolster a sagging population. It seems Europe has forgotten that one. Not that the US can talk, given the stream of people in from South America.

-=-

What makes the current situation markedly different from historical comparisons is that resource wise, we're pretty close to having shot our wad. The US has already experienced the Hubbard Peak in oil, the Saudis may have (hard to tell, but they have announced no discovery of new reserves for 20+ years. They are using secondary methods like pumping in salt water to boost production at the Ghawar field, the worlds largest and apparently one nearing exhaustion.) The world as a whole should in the next 10 years or so. Peak Copper will probably happen around 2030, although there are still occasional new copper finds. Other key resources are facing similar peaks.

A resource peak happens when you have extracted about half of the world suppy. After that, the marginal cost for additional extraction grows sharply. (This, by the way, is why we are currently experiencing a surge in commercial efforts related to space. Expensive metals in 15-20 years means it's time to start working on the rockets now.)

So this means that industrialization itself - a lynchpin of the west, as currently constituted - is running out of steam unless we find some rabbits in a hat somewhere. At very least a massive reconfiguration will be required, with much more recycling and efficiency and doing without.

When Rome, Byzantium, the Moche, the Maya and the Anisazi fell, there was no particular dearth of resources to prevent the emergence of a successor or to the preclude economic success of an invader. Climate issues perhaps in the last three, but there was still soil, trees, fish and stone; the same building blocks were there after the fall as before.

Now, not so much.

Instead, this will be much more like Easter Island, which used all its trees and then suffered massive erosion which prevented reforestation. They suffered cannibalism, wars, and all sorts of nastyness; their population when found by western explorers (Captain Cook I believe, but I could be wrong) their population was a small fraction of what it had once been (and the lifestyle was much harsher.)

Buckle your seatbelts, my friends. It will be a long, bumpy, interesting ride. Technology and space resources could let us pull it off, but nothing is guaranteed.

max_peenor · 2015-10-25T15:43:01+00:00

It's hard to say. The shear population of the earth now makes it somewhat unique. A couple thousands of years ago, when local communities collapsed, people would just migrate. What are you going to do when the supply chain for 30 million people suddenly falls apart? I don't think people really understand how much work actually happens to keep major urban areas fed.

[deleted] · 2015-10-26T18:05:58+00:00

Corporate sovereignty. The shareholders will become the new feudal lords. The media will become the new Papacy. Everyone else will become serfs. Power will still be based on land ownership and who you can have in your pocket, and it will still even be based on how many combat specialists you have in your employ, just like medieval Europe. Instead of the royal court, it's the boardroom of the most powerful corporation.

Western Civilization will truly collapse when the last liberal democratic state is subverted in favor of powerful multinational corporation.

disposable_pants · 2015-10-25T22:35:24+00:00

How is this more than tangentially related to sexual strategy? The closest link to sexual strategy in this post is the phrase "low fertility rates." This post is off-topic.

Title	What will the end of the decline actually look like?
Author	[deleted]
Upvotes	31
Comments	118
Date	October 25, 2015 2:57 PM UTC (10 years ago)
Subreddit	Posted in /r/TheRedPill
Original Link	https://old.reddit.com/r/TheRedPill/comments/3q5kcb/what_will_the_end_of_the_decline_actually_look/
Archive Link	https://theredarchive.com/r/TheRedPill/what-will-the-end-of-the-decline-actually-look.37512 https://theredarchive.com/post/37512

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