Age demographics. I’ve been cooking up a post on this topic for a while, since this has been a topic of interest to me after reading ‘The Misandry Bubble’ back in 2017. The economic and social impact of an aging society/civilization is very interesting.

‘The Misandry Bubble’ was written in 2010 and predictions made in it continue to play out. One of the main conclusions from the piece, which goes back to the ‘Bubble’ part of the title, is that there will not be enough tax dollars to prop up feminism/social programs that have replaced marriage. An aging population only exacerbates and accelerates government deficits.

To quote Elon Musk: ‘Population collapse is potentially the greatest risk to the future of civilization’. Recently, he tweeted that Japan might cease to exist if birthrates keep decreasing. Which seems to be a universal feature in prosperous and emancipated societies. Why is an aging society with a lacking number of newborns a big issue? There is something called the ‘Dependency ratio’. This ratio is officially calculated as following: (Children age 0-14 + elderly age 65 and up) divided by the labor force age 15 to 64.

Generally speaking, the lower this number the better, as it means there are many productive people who can support the ‘dependent’ portion of a society. When this number is high, an economy tends to grow the fastest, as there is little drag in terms of deadweight it has to carry.

Many countries in Africa tend to have a high dependency ratio because they have a lot of kids between age 0-14. There are not enough parents to properly raise & support all these kids > they die young > which is why there are not enough parents (super simplistic). It’s a very nasty cycle to be trapped in, but not what this post is about. Western countries have an entirely different problem. Elderly. It’s also a fairly new problem, as the average life expectancy was barely 50 years before the 20th century. People didn’t reach retirement age, let alone live for 20+ years on average after being retired.

I looked at publicly available age demographic data from 2001, 2021 and 2041 in The Netherlands, however our demography is fairly similar to those of other western countries liberated after WWII. Furthermore, I tweaked the definition of the dependency ratio a little, because I don’t think the official definition is accurate in developed nations.

For 2001, I used age 0-19 as ‘dependent’ children, 20-64 as ‘labor force’ and 65+ as elderly.

For 2021, 0-20, 21-66, 67+

For 2041, 0-21, 22-68, 69+

The reason I made this adjustment is that nobody is a contributing member of society from 14 years old. Maybe in Third World countries. In western countries, some people start working full time in their late teens, others only after completing a master’s degree in their mid 20s. There is a trend for people to stay in school longer and start working later, as our society continues to complexify, which is why I added 1 year of extra education per 2 decades.

I also extended the labor force bracket by 1 year per decade, as delayed retirement age is a continuing trend.

Some key statistics:

Year 2001 2021 2041
People x1,000 Elderly 2,172 3,040 4,046
Working 9,907 10,462 10,741
Children 3,908 3,966 4,524

From 2001 to 2041, the amount of elderly in The Netherlands will increase by a whopping 86% while the working age population will grow by just 8.4%. Currently, my country has 40% more elderly compared to 2001.

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Year 2001 2021 2041
People x1,000 Dependent: 6,080 7,006 8,570
Working: 9,907 10,462 10,741
Ratio 0,614 0,670 0,798

For every 100 people in the labor force, there were 61 dependents in 2001.

In 2041, the same 100 people will have to support 80 others instead.

That is a 31% increase.

This is NOT taking into account part-time workers, unemployment, disability etc. If this is taken into account, the dependency ratio will be around 1:1 in 2041. Imagine the burden and pressure of this on the social system etc.

In my view, a society that’s in this kind of decline is a breeding ground for populism, chaos and possibly revolution. Elderly will complain about inflation and that their pensions are not high enough. Young people will be paying high taxes to support an older generation that has accumulated and owns most of the wealth already, and real estate is expensive. Since the 50s, a large part of our labor shortage has been fixed with immigration, which furthers tensions and division. Combine this with the inflation we are currently seeing and energy crisis in the EU (CPI will average 4-6% this decade, it will not end soon. Sometimes it will be 2%, sometimes it will be 12%). Asset inflation will be much worse, as the current rate hikes are still far below what ‘real’ market interest rates would look like were it not for central bank interference.

Germany is shutting down nuclear plants while trying to become independent of Russian energy. We live in a clown world.

Become rich and get multiple passports. Don’t live off the grid, live on multiple grids. Western societies are slowly failing, prepare an escape route. You might never have to use it, but it’s better to have something you don’t need than to need something you don’t have.