CMV: TRP is concerned with probability, while the TBP is concerned with possibility.

exit_sandman · 2016-05-10T19:55:01+00:00

TRP is concerned with probability, while the TBP is concerned with possibility.

TBP isn't concerned with possibility, they're concerned with feelz. If something appears offensive to them, they don't care how likely it is (whether it's 1% of 99% or anything in between), they care how much it runs counter to their ideology.

And it's not only BPers, but the entire leftist/progressive camp that is operating from that perspective; and not only regarding women, but regarding anyone they consider "less privileged". Anyone who has paid attention to the blabbering of the European (and particular German) left in the wake of the refugee crisis can attest to this.

TheChemist158 · 2016-05-10T18:15:23+00:00

I'm not sure why there is this drive to reconcile TRP with TBP, as though is it just a different perspective. The main difference between the two isn't that TBP is looking at the one in a million and TRP is looking at the rest. We are both looking at the full million and we disagree about what they are. Reds have a vision of what kind of man is successful, and which aren't. How women behave and treat these men differently. Reds say this is how most of the cases are. That 24 of those 25 exes fit the views and it was only one who didn't. Blues say that those numbers are inflated. Most women don't act like that. Not that a few don't, most don't. That it's really reds looking at the one in a million cases. And obviously reds disagree. But we both think the other is looking at rare cases rather than the norm.

How many times have you heard a blue say that most women are hypergamous, or most women settle down with a beta? Granted, sometimes we'll bring up personal cases, but that's usually because a red is saying it never happens, or asking us to find examples of them being right in our personal lives.

EmpressofMars · 2016-05-10T20:50:47+00:00

I mean, in my humble pill popping ass' opinion TBP isn't really concerned with possibility or...anything really. TBP exists to counter TRP and is mainly a site to joke about/parody redpillers. Its for people to laugh at "le top alfalfas who are ultramacho" or to groan/cringe/get angry at some particular choice bit of nonsense.

Literally on the front page of the sub is a thread titles "I am Chad Thundercuck AMA" and further down "Edgelords Gonna Edge."

You're doing an apples-to-oranges style deal here IMO. One group shouts their opinions into the void, the other comments on said opinions/dialogue/drama/diatribes.

redpillschool · 2016-05-10T18:40:20+00:00

There's more to it than just the fact that TBP fundamentally misunderstands generalizations (as you describe it, they're concerned with the possibility rather than the probability).

TBP disagrees that reality can be known, taking exception to the idea that probability itself can be determined. Rather than take a stab at understanding why people exhibit certain behaviors, TBP would rather take the stance that "everybody's different" and that no overarching theory can be found.

Of course, if no patterns can be found, that means everything is effectively random. This is something that BPers will also deny, as though there's some magical middle grey area.

I am of the belief that understanding enough variables, most behavior can be either somewhat predicted or at the very least, understood in context.

PoopInMyBottom · 2016-05-10T20:13:46+00:00

TBP is definitely concerned with possibility, but TRP is not concerned with probability. Not directly, at least. They are concerned with a naive version of probability.

They misapply statistical analysis.

If a trait correlates with some negative character trait (like being crazy), it could be wise to use it as an indicator. However, that only holds true if the correlation is strong. TRP only cares about the steepness of the correlation - not the strength. They only ever reference averages - they aren't concerned with variance.

Let's take sex partners as an example.

If women who have lots of sex partners are on average less satisfied in their relationships, you might think that's a good metric for screening women. If the variance is enormous, however, then it is fairly poor. A large variance (relative to the decrease in satisfaction) means the correlation is weak. It means there are a significant number of women with many prior partners who are happier than women with none.

If the variance of women with many prior partners is large enough relative to women with none, it could actually mean the happiest women are the ones with many prior partners - in spite of the average. If your objective was to find a partner who would be as satisfied as possible (and those stats were true), going for women with more partners would actually be more effective.

Probability is all well and good, but it only works when you're analysing it properly. You need to understand statistics before you can apply statistics. If you don't, taking people on a case-by-case basis is actually a far better approach.

648262 · 2016-05-10T22:09:38+00:00

When calculating risk you assign two values to a risk; probability and consequence. Both being a number. You're saying TRP looks at just one, and TBP looks at another, and therefore I think you're wrong.

TBPs are more emotionally inclined that TRPs.

disposable_pants · 2016-05-10T22:36:51+00:00

TBP will take any position and argue anything so long as it opposes TRP. Probability and possibility only factor in to the extent that TRP prefers the former, so TBP argues the latter because they've already decided that TRP is wrong.

raisins3142 · 2016-05-11T00:22:39+00:00

TBP generalizes all the time, when it suits the argument. However, if you just allow generalization as a thing to exist unhinged, then it is possible to find things you don't find palatable (moralistic/naturalistic fallacy). Also, finding a slim counterexample is considered depth thought to someone folks, especially when they have nothing else in an argument. For instance, I described a bad situation my cousin was placing her daughter in to an ex. Her mother was leaving her unattended in a house with multiple, male teenage foster kids (she is 8). My ex said "well, some kids are in situations like that and nothing bad happens". And she smirked as if she'd actually made a point.

despisedlove2 · 2016-05-11T01:34:43+00:00

If that is the case, you are implying that BP flunked statistics.

Not entirely unbelievable.

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rulenumber303 · 2016-05-11T00:19:01+00:00

TRP's application of probability is simplistic and naive. At some stage we are all going to be an outlier, purely because as humans we have so much going on. Similarly at some stage every human we meet is going to be an outlier. TRPers are headed towards tragedies based upon their unwillingness to consider possibility.

Blue Pill on the other hand is just a satire subreddit.

And even if you take Blue Pill to mean everyone/everything that isn't specifically TRP... oh ffs, every time a fifteen year old girl scowls and says to her friend "yeah let's take a bus so we can hang out somewhere else in future, the last three times that place was full of pimply losers who talk about nothing but gaming" she's thinking in terms of probability.

Title	CMV: TRP is concerned with probability, while the TBP is concerned with possibility.
Author	gavinok
Upvotes	11
Comments	101
Date	May 10, 2016 6:02 PM UTC (10 years ago)
Subreddit	Posted in /r/PurplePillDebate
Original Link	https://old.reddit.com/r/PurplePillDebate/comments/4iqifl/cmv_trp_is_concerned_with_probability_while_the/
Archive Link	https://theredarchive.com/r/PurplePillDebate/cmv-trp-is-concerned-with-probability-while-the.274730 https://theredarchive.com/post/274730

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