I am having a discussion with /u/wtknight. He suggested that he doesn't have problems with finding good women because he never goes for average women, presumably because he can tell who is average and who is not. I thought that this is best responded to as a new thread because the topic will be of interest in the unending AWALT vs NAWALT debate.

There is no corresponding AMALT debate because men don't initiate 70-90% of recreational divorces, and since they are driven by sex rather than primarily a need to latch on to relationships for fiscal gain, the time cost involved in figuring out the average cad lies in days and weeks, and not months/years as it is for figuring out the average woman.

TLDR: AWALT is practical advice, given human life spans, reality of the divorces today, etc.

Now, my response to him:

It is quite clear that you don't understand what statistics mean.

You are making several assumptions:

  1. You have an inbuilt and reliable discriminator that works in figuring out genuine women from the average women. Hint: so did we BP Tradcons, before we were screwed over, and went TRP/RP Tradcon/RP MGTOW.

Women are evolved to deceive men into relationships. Men are evolved to deceive women into sex. See above for time cost differences involved in figuring out each deception.

  1. There is no time cost involved in accounting for your detector and the statistics.

Let us do a statistical exercise. Assume that there are 100 women, and one man, who wants to select one of them for an LTR. Both are around 27 years of age, close to the median age of marriage for a woman.

About 15 of those women show visible signs of being a bad bet - addicted to the sugar daddy lifestyle, and they ask you what car you drive. You don't have to date them to know that they are useless. Time cost = 0.

Then come the serial STR addicts. The relationship talking riders of the CC - RCC. This is another 15 women, who show signs within 3 months of wanting to "try" different things. 3 months is too short to form lasting emotional bonds. So, assume that the inter relationship gap is about 15 days. 3.5 months per RCC rider. Time cost: 49 months. Let us call that 4 years. Most men date around casually for about 4 years. You are now 31, the median age of marriage for men.

Now come the real female artists. Over half the population (average, remember?). These are women you find out in 1-5 years are cheating on you, have weird personality issues, are emotionally abusive, etc. You have a honeymoon phase that lasts around 3-8 months during which everything is perfect. You emotionally bond, so the gap between the relationships can rise to half the length of the relationship. If you married one of these after 2 years of knowing them, accounting for 6 months to a year in divorce, and 1-2 years of her "my feelings have changed, woo me again" BS that most gynocentric relationship websites peddle to men, the time cost of each such relationship is: 2+3+2+1=8 years+2 years= 10 years. A man may remarry once after being financially emptied out and emotionally destroyed. So, that is 20 years, out of which you get 2 kids, perhaps. You are now 51. Add 2-3 1 year long relationships that don't result in marriage and kids and that time cost gets an additional 6 years.

You are now 57 years of age and have worked your way through 80% of women. I am quite certain that somewhere in that remaining 20%, be the unicorns. Problem is that most of them are now 30 years younger than you are, the age you were when your sleigh ride started. Unless they are golddiggers (if you have any gold left), they aren't interested in you. They are the good women, remember? They want a man they can grow old with. That isn't you.

But don't lose hope. What about the good women who ran into cads and became cat ladies, or were left raising kids and didn't inflict casual abusive bfs or serial stepfathers on their kids? They are your age roughly. Problem is that you are not going to have any kids with them. So, the only kids you had are ones with half defective DNA who repeat this cycle for your viewing pleasure.

So, have faith in law of averages. Wait until you check into the old age home. You will find a sweet old lady to play bingo with. She will be with you until the day you die. Literally. A few doors down from hers. Her tears at your passing will be genuine. So few men in the old age home. Your half messed up kids would have taken your money, so she doesn't steal your money. She has plenty from the men she destroyed in her prime. She is a keeper.

Could you end up accidentally with a good woman instead of an artist at the age of 31? Sure. You could also win a lottery. In life, all things are possible. Statistics, however, are about likelihoods. Not possibilities.