I don't trust the stock/bond markets on a 25 year time scale. Let's brainstorm future-proof investments.

massivewang · 2016-07-17T16:29:48+00:00

Unless there's a zombie apocalypse, I trust in stocks:

"Going back nearly two hundred years, if you had invested $10,000, reinvested any dividends, interest, or other gains, and left the money alone, how much wealth would have today in real, inflation-adjusted terms based upon the asset class you selected?

Stocks vs Bonds vs Gold

The stock investor would have turned his $10,000 into $5.6 billion. The bond investor would have turned his $10,000 into $8 million, and the gold investor would have turned his $10,000 into $26,000. That is statistically significant.

For nearly two centuries, stocks have generated an average return of 7% in real, inflation-adjusted dollars. Historical returns show that stocks almost always adjust to inflation over the long-term. After all, if the dollar became worthless and the United States were forced to switch to a different currency – be it gold, silver, or sea shells – companies like Coca-Cola are still going to be generating large piles of excess surplus as people turn in some of their currency in exchange for the product or service the firm provides."

http://www.joshuakennon.com/stocks-vs-bonds-vs-gold-returns-for-the-past-200-years/

"To put it more directly: It is not a mathematically inconsistent nor historically unreasonable position to posit that a basket of stocks bought today with a lump sum would produce 6% to 7% nominally over the next ten years due to present valuation and that a dollar cost averaging program started today will produce 10% returns over the next 25+ years as the regular purchases and reinvested dividends averaged out the highs and lows of market volatility."

http://www.joshuakennon.com/mail-bag-return-assumptions-in-your-about-com-articles/

redpillbanana · 2016-07-17T15:00:35+00:00

Cat food stocks.

That way the feminism will help you more than it will help any woman :)

moopato · Sun Jul 17 18:28:05 2016 UTC

Anal dildo companies and depression pill companies will likely be doing fantastic in 40-50 years

TheBlackPhillipShow · 2016-07-17T14:46:52+00:00

Nobody who has a good investment (or business) idea will tell it to you. At most you can expect from a thread like this is a bunch of wanna-be penny stock gamblers wanting to have their "contrarian" investment ideas crowd-validated.

steelerfaninperu · 2016-07-17T17:20:06+00:00

If you have good business sense and could be a good manager you should just invest in someone's skills. Particularly people with service labor skills. Especially trade-style labor.

If you know a great accountant/hair stylist/plumber/carpenter/etc who can consistently get clients, as in always booked, then they could be good candidates for starting their own business.

These types of businesses are great because they have low start-up costs and reasonable overhead. Get the plumber a new van, rent a small shop space for the hair stylist, a workshop for the carpenter. Talking $50k in entry costs in most of these cases.

Now, you invest that for a certain stake in the new business. That person manages and you can pitch in with logistics, marketing, data gathering, and use that to optimize their business. There are tons of great workers who just don't have the business sense or the money to start one up.

But they can get it done because they know other talented people. They can recognize them. All you gotta do is give a few little benefits and treat workers well and your guy can poach talented people in a heartbeat, giving you a solid labor force and with smart management the business can grow.

And generally the person makes enough to cover their own operating costs anyway.

I'm saving up with this in mind. I've seen a lot of talented people who I think I could build a business for.

2016-07-17T15:32:48+00:00

Land= Same as real estate. Location location location. Buy near areas where subdivisions are going up. Urban sprawl will take the developers out and will raise the value of your parcel over time.

Also, I recently purchased a small parcel for 12k to build my future house, and the lakefront houses nearby were selling for 300k each. 1 acre btw. However, there was a 300 acre parcel that had been for sale that covered half the lake. The person who bought it got it all for 300k. Potential for at least 50 waterfront sites, and all the land behind it.

If only I had 300k. Whoever bought it is going to make out like a bandit. He doesn't even have to do any development, just divy up the waterfront lots and sell for 100k each. Dude is going to 50x his money, easy.

Look hard and the deals are there.

2016-07-17T15:36:01+00:00

You haven't told us your age. You've told us what you are looking at, but not what you have experience in. You haven't told us what your goals are. You haven't told us how much time you have to actively manage your investments. You haven't told us how much debt you are carry or how much money you have that you can invest. You just seem to think the dollar is going to bottom out in 40 years.

WillyWonka321 · 2016-07-17T14:50:30+00:00

What about good ol property..Flipping houses....buy to let...

I_Need_More_Space_ · 2016-07-17T19:43:07+00:00

My goal is to be completely broke when I die. Seriously. That will be a life maximized. Cheers.

TravisPatron · 2016-07-17T14:17:41+00:00

Looking for a future proof investment?

Buy bitcoin.

450k_crackparty · 2016-07-17T14:36:07+00:00

[permanently deleted]

Surfincloud9 · 2016-07-17T15:16:12+00:00

Most of my portfolio are REITS. 80% of my portfolio is a property REIT, a hospital REIT and I currently have 40% of my portfolio being retirement home REITS (VTR). The baby boomers will need a place to crash. Thinking a 10 to 20 year hold on retirement home REITS.

I have 20% mixed between GE and Verizon Communications. I also through a few grand at some biotech companies that have drug releases that I am certain will pass. So far I am 8/10 on the drug releases.

If you are keen to gamble away some money. http://www.biopharmcatalyst.com/fda-calendar/

If you do your research and understand the background of the study then it raises your chances. Disclaimer: You will lose money in biotechs, but if you get one win, it'll easily outweigh 2 to 3 other losses.

GayLubeOil · 2016-07-17T17:05:27+00:00

Property in foreign countries that way the US can't garnish or tax it when its time to pay for the Quantatative Easing party.

Dookiestain_LaFlair · 2016-07-17T21:02:58+00:00

Invest in a Lordship. You will have lands and a title, however you will have to take responsibility for the welfare and defense of the peasants that work the land and pay you tribute.

-drukpa-kunley- · 2016-07-17T15:26:24+00:00

The problem in the next 40 years will be return OF capital, not return ON capital.

Because the global economy and monetary system are functions of available energy to fuel growth, and because affordable energy is on the decline, the global economy will be in a deflationary spiral (contraction phase) for the foreseeable future.

The value of a thing is only worth what other people are willing to pay for it. And if no one has any money to buy that thing, then the value of that thing declines. This is deflation. And this is why cash is king in a deflationary environment.

The solutions central bankers are implementing are wrong: adding more debt, to an economy already overburdened with debt. At some point, it will be clear that some of this debt will be considered un-collectable. And at that point the trust horizon will start collapsing.

Take the derivatives market for example. There is something like $200 trillion dollars in the derivatives market. Did you know that derivatives have superpriority over customer deposits? So if your bank loses big in the derivatives markets, they will come after customer deposits to pay the derivatives debt. Bottom line: even money in a bank account is not safe. Oh, and safe deposit boxes aren't safe either. Also, did you know that the money you deposit in a bank is not actually yours? From a legal perspective you are giving the bank an unsecured loan.

Another fun fact: money market funds already have gateways where they can suspend withdrawals if they see fit. We have seen suspended redemptions over and over again already. CDs in 2008, MF Global, Cypress, Real-estate funds after the Brexit. If redemptions are suspended, how are you going to get "your" money back?

In my opinion, the only reasonably safe places to store wealth are in physical or productive assets you own, outside of the banking system. Some examples of this are real-estate you own (no mortgage), local productive businesses with short supply-chains, and productive land (farming). And of course physical cash and precious metals stored outside the banking system.

And for the love of all that is holy, get out of debt. Debt is slavery.

draftmasterx · 2016-07-17T18:10:20+00:00

I stick with stocks, generally index funds with extremely low fees. Occasionally I gamble when a particular stock or sector takes a big dip; the wins have more than paid off the losses. Today I bought a boatload of US and British financial stocks, I believe in a few years they'll be worth significantly more than they are now during this financial sector slump & Brexit chaos.

flyercomet · 2016-07-17T19:34:34+00:00

I think all these plays for diversification are great if you are already making use of tax advantaged retirement accounts (401k, IRA, Roth IRA). It's a guarantee that the IRS will seek their pound of flesh so shielding your income from taxes is a mandatory play if you ever want to retire. Once you reach the cap on the Roth IRA (5.5k/year) or reach the point of diminishing returns on your 401k (I defer 12% of my pre-tax income) other options become attractive. If you have 25 years there's little reason to not be in equities, especially with a tax shield.

Edit: for some clarity. This is my strategy and where you park your money depends on your personal goals and systems. I own some riskier plays and bitcoin outside of my retirement accounts.

TL:DR - If you have at least a middle class income, take advantage of tax-advantaged accounts invested in low-fee funds BEFORE you get creative.

BlueFreedom420 · 2016-07-17T20:10:43+00:00

Guns, land, raw materials, and knowledge.

2016-07-18T02:50:13+00:00

The smartest teams of nobel prize winning PHD mathematicians and economists cannot predict the future of the economy. What makes you think you can?

PaperStreetVilla · 2016-07-18T15:37:11+00:00

Consider protecting yourself from divorce-rape, paying for a woman (BB) and purchasing emotional fufuilment-esque things, drugs, booze, status.

Those there take out ~80% of your wealth over a lifetime. Even if the market was 15% gains, year after year, you stand to gain a hell of a lot more by avoiding those major, common losses.

Can't remember the post/blog on it, but men generally need 20% of what they earn on themselves. The whole idea of the family unit being so beneficial to society was to provide 5x what he needs for himself. The female is more than happy to control 80% of disposable income.

80% if a big return on investment

titans0910 · 2016-07-18T22:42:44+00:00

Oh boy another one of these. Confidence is great op but you're taking it too far. Predicting a crash or flat market performance without any indicators to back it up is strike 1. Asking for brainstorming advice on trp is strike 2. Strike 3 is suggesting a list of things that are all tied to stock and bond performance. I mean if corporate earnings are flat or declining why would property or land values rise? What's the scenario where across the board companies and households are all losing money but the same time those people who all have less money will want to pay more for your house or your land? Bit coin is a gamble not an investment. All it takes is a stroke of the pen by the president to sign a law banning the use of bit coin in consumer sales and then overnight you investment goes from $670 per coin (today's price) to $1.

Op all of this stuff your suggesting is reactionary and that's how people lose all of their money. You see an explosion in arena x and then buy not realizing that you're probably buying near or at the peak.

favours_of_the_moon · 2016-07-17T14:46:47+00:00

https://geiststeuerung.wordpress.com/2014/04/18/financial-planning/

Lots of references here for you. I agree with metals. They are manipulated to keep their prices low, but that is not the end game. The end game is hyperinflationary debt repudiation. You can ride that wave when it happens, start building up your cache of silver and other metals/commodities.

Central banks are running out of ammo.

NeoreactionSafe · 2016-07-17T18:58:48+00:00

One nuclear bomb in your neighborhood and property values will dramatically decline.

Given where things are going you might see the "big picture" a little.

I'm guessing that within three years WWIII starts.

Act accordingly.

I mean the whole dream of investement and security is great... back in the 1990's everyone was into that, but geez... isn't it obvious things are getting worse very rapidly now?

There is such a thing as waking up to events going on in the world.

War profiteering is the place you should be thinking about as well as survival.

All the top wealthy people are building underground bunkers.

2016-07-17T16:12:31+00:00

Stocks (if the stock market ever tanks, we won't have a society left anyway so everything else is nulled), private equity, land & mineral rights, Real Estate (apartment building or multiplexes), commodities (gold, platinum and silver) as well as hold my cash reserves in T-Bills. I don't understand Bitcoin so I'll never invest in it until I do. As for REIT's I'm indifferent to it. It seems like a short-term investment and I'm investing for the long term.

OccamsShaveClub · 2016-07-17T16:19:57+00:00

REIT's: I live in an area that is exploding, so I'm looking for a local REIT with some serious growth potential. I'm not an accredited investor, but I'd love to be able to directly fund a small property flipper. How can I accomplish that?

Look into becoming a "hard money lender"

mojo_juju · 2016-07-17T16:38:07+00:00

How about foreign securities? If you really want to try some risky shit, make some bets on foreign exchanges.

Bet on some Brazilian stocks: http://www.bmfbovespa.com.br/en_us/

Want to go balls to the wall? bet on some Turkish stocks :P http://www.borsaistanbul.com/en/

Just google "[country here] stock exchange"

the99percent1 · 2016-07-17T19:32:56+00:00

Two rules I obey in investing.

Buy low, sell high.

And diversify.

Exchange traded funds that are undervalued fits both criteria, and your barrier of entry is minimal.

Set up an account with vanguard, throw in 5grand in your account and you are good to go.

Googoots · 2016-07-17T19:39:15+00:00

Beachfront property. They aren't making any more of it.

2016-07-18T00:22:13+00:00

TFRs are a good indicator of where industry will shift in the future. More single lonely people, fewer kids. Many old people. Invest accordingly.

Brewju · 2016-07-18T04:59:24+00:00

Highly doubt Forex is rigged. Maybe if you traded thousands of lots you'd get noticed by the bigger players (big IF), but the average guy trading through a broker has absolutely no effect on the market. Brokers also have no reason to rig the markets either as most investors self-destruct themselves by over leveraging or overtraining in ''get rich quick'' schemes.

Butthole_Mysteries · 2016-07-17T16:56:12+00:00

P2P Lending is pretty cool

TheSelfGoverned · 2016-07-17T23:24:15+00:00

Forex and bonds are definitely rigged.

Stocks and real estate are responding to currency inflation.

The real growth areas will be bitcoin, real estate development, and creating successful businesses.

rpogami · 2016-07-17T21:17:34+00:00

I've been using Total Market Index funds and dumping about $1k to $1.5k a month in. How much are you guys investing a month? I'm thinking of branching off into real estate and buying a townhouse to rent out or a condo in a nearby city.

2016-07-18T00:30:32+00:00

It's hard to recommend what to invest in because people's knowledge can vary a lot, and what works for one may not work for others. A good bet is to exchange your money into the currency of a country that is growing at a fast rate, and increasingly becoming stronger. It won't really make you a millionaire, without leverage, but it can help you keep ahead of inflation. You just have to switch out your money every now, and again to winning countries.

--__--____--__-- · 2016-07-18T03:16:27+00:00

All my money is in bitcoin and lending club

snorted_the_red_pill · 2016-07-18T07:29:41+00:00

Good investing is a simple, boring mechanical plan that gets you from financial point A to financial point B.

Ideally you should have three investment plans: 1. To be secure 2. To be comfortable 3. To be rich

You should start a business for cash flow. Business and investing is where the financial leverage is.

Niven91 · 2016-07-18T12:00:11+00:00

I have an IT-Startup in Switzerland and im looking for an investor. We need 50'000 CHF and we offer an attractive share for that, if you're intersted PN me so that I can give you further informations :)

2016-07-18T15:53:50+00:00

Common mistake with buy and hold is to go low income to buy higher volume with the same investment. Don't do it. The mantainance and management will kill you. higher value middle class suburban SFRs and duplexes are the way to go, especially with high income millenials starting families and wanting to move into houses.

knightSwolaire · 2016-07-18T16:09:50+00:00

Invest in diabetes medications, kidney dialysis. Fats gonna keep on fatting, and Lord Beetus will come for their feet

2016-07-18T17:55:35+00:00

REIT's - If you own your home, don't buy a local REIT. This takes away diversification benefits if your local real estate market enters a downturn.

Commodities - Historically not great. Hard to predict/ it's a gamble. Own metals (gold/silver) if you expect inflation (though your real estate holdings could be hedging against inflation already, depending on % makeup of your portfolio).

Short term plays are not realistic. Unless you are trading in very large quantities, it's very likely your transaction costs are eating into your Alpha, and that is IF you are even making money above and beyond the S&P.

I'd say, short of having millions to play with and a cushy safety net, buy index funds and hold that shit. Stock market is going to be fine long term. You have no real reason to think otherwise. If you want to add value, actively manage rental properties. Look for ones that can be updated to increase value and roll your returns into future properties. Everything around building long-term wealth. I don't believe in get rich quick or hot stock tips. There are professionals on Wall Street that will take advantage of these types of security mis-pricing before you ever even sniff it out.

Original_Dankster · 2016-07-18T19:23:42+00:00

Bullets / ammunition. They retain their value very, very well especially if you save brass and do reloading, they cost even less to acquire.

VancouverSucks · 2016-07-18T20:37:59+00:00

Defense Index fund. easy money

NietzscheExplosion · 2016-07-18T21:17:49+00:00

Im going all in on Elon Musk companies (if only tesla available, fine. Or all companies that supply to him), after the next correction/crash.

Not quite all in, a good size hedge in gold/survival land / bullets of course.

That covers a positive future and negative future. This mediocre future cannot continue. Money is worthless.

2016-07-19T05:10:18+00:00

Futures is manipulated the same way Forex is, hell any of the regular major markets are.

RedPillHanSolo · 2016-07-19T06:10:19+00:00

That's an important topic, but unfortunately most of what gets posted here reads like a chinese book to me. Guys, can anyone recommend a book for uber-dummies to start with?

123Jobber · 2016-07-19T11:56:46+00:00

Hopefully OP can answer but what exactly is causing you to be this pessimistic about the future and what evidence do you have to support a belief

In the last 100 years we have had countless hot wars, a cold war, a great depression, 2 to to 3 global recessions after, rise of liberalism, Marxist ideologies and feminism, climate change warnings, the development of nuclear weapons, a nuclear war scare, rise of wahhabism, communist regimes rising and falling, etc.

In addition to this we've had rapid technological development, population spikes, growth in literacy rates, life expectancy democratization across Europe and in some Emerging Markets, industrialization of Asian markets, the spread of Capitalism in China, growth of an Asian middle class.....

Africa is slowly developing and has an untapped market of hundreds of millions of young potential consumers and workers. Vast untapped natural resources, arable land, undeveloped energy capabilities, undeveloped infrastructure....nothing has been done on this continent...

There's still lots more business to be done across the planet, there's a tremendous amount of growth you are missing out on by not holding long term. Countless businesses have survived regime changes and even global changes in International Relations in the early 20th century?

I just don't understand what empirical evidence you have which supports the eventual destruction of modern civilization, and why you thoroughly believe the next 40 years doesn't necessarily go the other way and produce even more growth?

flat6turbo · 2016-07-17T17:17:54+00:00

not a financial security, but firearms are a stable store of value. a high quality pistol or rifle will never, ever lose its value. to a certain extent, common caliber ammunition too, though i think some people go overboard on the ammo from a practical point of view.

downsides are: storage and transportation are difficult, legality is jurisdictional, transfer may be difficult.

CharlesSaubis · 2016-07-17T20:23:42+00:00

Forex is legit but most people self destruct due to over leveraging and over confidence. Cap your effective leverage at 10:1 and risk no more than 2% of your equity per trade. That will prevent you from blowing up your account like so many newbs. Most forex brokers will let you demo trade with virtual money indefinitely. Take advantage of this to hone your strategy before risking real money. Here's a good primer that will help you avoid the most common pitfalls https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2015/07/06/forex-trading-the-Traits-of-Successful-Traders.html

2016-07-17T21:55:08+00:00

I have a feeling that your net worth is pretty paltry OP.

NakedAndBehindYou · 2016-07-17T23:28:00+00:00

TRP is not really the place to discuss financial investments. There are much better communities for that.

I_Need_More_Space_ · 2016-07-17T19:41:33+00:00

I just don't give a fuck about investing. I just live for today, and I can survive on canned ham and dry crusty bread when I'm old. LOL. The stock market is shit. Why do I want to willingly hand over my money to a group of individuals so they can live it up banging 10's and drinking champagne on their 100 foot yachts? The stock market is a huge scam. It has paid well for the boomers, and they are the ones who tell me to invest in my future, because it worked for them. Any scam has to show at least once that it works for it to keep going... They are that generation. Yes, it still works for few regular individuals today. But it only works at a % of the whole for it to keep other losers coming to the well, because they saw Joe Schmoe make it happen. Its like a lottery with slightly better odds. I'll pass and live for today to accumulate my wealth in awesome experiences. After all, that's the only type of wealth you will take with you to the grave. Cheers.

I'll stick to taking week long expeditions diving with white sharks, going on international backpacking trips, road tripping North America in my diesel truck and 31' 5th wheel RV.

TheBlackPhillipShow · 2016-07-17T14:43:03+00:00

[permanently deleted]

Title	I don't trust the stock/bond markets on a 25 year time scale. Let's brainstorm future-proof investments.
Author	[deleted]
Upvotes	66
Comments	207
Date	July 17, 2016 1:55 PM UTC (10 years ago)
Subreddit	Posted in /r/TheRedPill
Original Link	https://old.reddit.com/r/TheRedPill/comments/4t9pvi/i_dont_trust_the_stockbond_markets_on_a_25_year/
Archive Link	https://theredarchive.com/r/TheRedPill/i-dont-trust-the-stockbond-markets-on-a-25-year.60830 https://theredarchive.com/post/60830

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