Would you take this bet? The simple maths behind why more approaches increases value of approach

AoF_NoMercy · 2015-01-05T21:47:29+00:00

As an occasional gambler watching this video I just can't believe they don't see the value of the 2:1 for 10 bets in a row ...

yequw · 2015-01-05T17:07:46+00:00

I know this isn't the normal kind of content you see on here, but while not directly related to seduction the principles apply just the same so I thought I should share.

SpaceMonkeyNut · 2015-01-06T04:18:56+00:00

You miss 100 % of the shots you dont take

Crypt0Nihilist · 2015-01-06T11:27:28+00:00

You guys need to shift your perspective a bit. The mathematical basis of this test is just shedding a clear light on something we all do. Loss aversion is a real thing, it isn't just people being bad at maths. The risk of losing something increases its perceived value even when in a situation where the exact value is printed on the object and the risk is well defined. "It isn't just $10, it's $10 that I have and that makes it feel worth more like $20 to me." The whole point of this set up is that people are acting illogically; there is a psychological block, or a gut feeling that prevents them from laying even this small amount of money on the line even when it is clearly explained to them.

What should you learn from this? Firstly, don't be the guy offering the bet. If a girl has a boyfriend and you present yourself as a direct alternative, this vid shows that you are going to have to demonstrate 200% of his value to her at the very least to get chance of taking his place. That's discounting any additional investment in the relationship and inertia like shared friends. In a "him or me" choice, her gut is going to tell her to keep what she has.

That's the bad news. What's the good news? If you can be her $10, you're golden. This is why if you're having fun with a girl, she does something you don't like and you indicate you disapprove and you're thinking about leaving she responds positively to the "punishment". The potential loss of your company exceeds its actual value for that moment, so she rushes to make sure she isn't risking her $10.

elefuntle · 2015-01-05T20:29:40+00:00

Jesus those people are dumb.

googolplexbyte · 2015-01-05T19:12:43+00:00

The biggest issue here is that the person that takes the 10:10 bet doesn't get the 10:20 bet. You're getting hit with the hidden cost of losing future opportunities.

The reason 100 10:20 bets feels much better than 1 10:20 bet is nothing to do with the odds, it's the guarantee of more future opportunities.

If a good bet exists, a better one might soon exist. Though you got to stop somewhere and beyond 10:20 or you really are pushing your luck.

KDallas_Multipass · 2015-01-05T20:14:07+00:00

can't watch video, can someone summarize?

JayWalkerC · 2015-01-06T02:34:52+00:00

It is definitely useful to see this information presented in this context. I recently read "Thinking Fast and Slow" and hadn't considered the section on loss aversion in this context. It's a very good book with lots of things to think about that can be related to everyday life.

ResseXx · 2015-01-06T04:59:24+00:00

I am a lot into betting, probability and statistic and this video left me without any words. How can people just refuse even a 12$ vs 10$ bet? he explains perfectly at the end why it is not smart to do it. btw thanks for sharing

krackenfromthedeep18 · 2015-01-07T16:57:15+00:00

This is incredibly relevant. This is exactly the content that seditors such as myself love to see. The odds are in our favor, naturally.

desktopbreaker · 2015-01-06T03:54:47+00:00

Both people are gambling. When approaching anyone in your life.

slamjeez · 2015-01-06T15:48:36+00:00

holy shit this is good

Title	Would you take this bet? The simple maths behind why more approaches increases value of approach
Author	yequw
Upvotes	328
Comments	56
Date	January 5, 2015 5:06 PM UTC (11 years ago)
Subreddit	Posted in /r/seduction
Original Link	https://old.reddit.com/r/seduction/comments/2rez88/would_you_take_this_bet_the_simple_maths_behind/
Archive Link	https://theredarchive.com/r/seduction/would-you-take-this-bet-the-simple-maths-behind.1381873 https://theredarchive.com/post/1381873

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