🤓 The Numbers Game Explained (plus bonus proof pics)

I’m going to preface this by saying that you can only play the numbers game if you meet certain minimums. I really need to hammer that home. If you are overweight, it will be really hard to get laid from cold approach. If you don't have decent baseline social skills, it will be really hard to get laid from cold approach. Self-improvement is a part of the game. The pickup journey has two phases. First is the self improvement phase to get yourself to the point where you meet enough minimums to where a decent amount of girls would be interested in you. Then comes the actual game portion. I won't go into the whole self-improvement thing in this post. This post is just about the general concept of the numbers game. This post is not about the actual skill of approaching. It's just to talk about the general concept of numbers game.

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I’ll be talking about the numbers game/volume a lot throughout future posts so I figured I should do a post on what the numbers game actually is. The basic concept is that there’s a certain amount of approaches/dates/nights out etc that you have to do to get any result. Basically, there will never be a point to where you get “so good at game” that you don’t have to approach in high volume and deal with rejection/flakes/bad reactions/awkward conversations etc at a rate multiple times higher than how often you get laid. The “best guys” will have conversion rates (how many approaches it takes to get laid) around 5ish percent, and even that might be pushing it. I put best guys in quotes because there’s so many different factors to take into consideration like the guy’s SMV relative to the girl, demographic of girls you approach, where you approach, how high/low risk the approaches are, etc that percentages don’t really mean THAT much.

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Ok, so the numbers game is a little more in-depth than “you’ll get laid if you approach enough girls”. That’s the gist of it, but there’s reasons WHY you get rejected so much and why so many approaches and dates don’t turn into anything, so I’m going to break that down right now. Most of these reasons actually have nothing to do with you, meaning that the majority of the time you get rejected it has nothing to do with you. One thing to look out for is to not take that to the extreme and think that EVERY rejection or negative result was out of your control or you can’t improve. That’s just being lazy and putting the blame and responsibility on something other than yourself. But generally speaking, assuming you meet the looks threshold of a decent portion of the population and are not extremely disproportionately weird/unconfident, most rejections are not your fault.

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The following are just rough estimates used for illustration purposes. I arrived at these from looking at my thousands of approaches and hundreds of dates and kind of eye-balling it. Yours will probably be lower than this if you’re first starting. Getting to the point where the following breakdown applies to you (about a 3% conversion rate) is actually a pretty big achievement. The amount of SMV, confidence, and experience it takes to get to that point is something most guys will have a hard time achieving. Keep in mind these numbers are not set in stone. I'm giving general ballpark figures to illustrate the concept. There's also some overlap. So a girl who's in a relationship might still give you her number, but end up not responding when you text, so that's basically the same as her not giving you her number. Again, these are ballpark figures to give you a general idea. Ok here we go.

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Out of 100 approaches:

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– 30% of them will be involved with another guy in some way. Husband, boyfriend, fuckbuddy etc. So right off the bat, you will get rejected by 1/3 of girls just because of their relationship status. It has absolutely nothing to do with you.

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– Another 30% will not be in an emotional/mental state to where they will give you their number. Maybe they are in a bad mood that day, maybe they are focusing on school/work at that point in their life, maybe their grandma died yesterday, maybe blah blah blah literally thousands of things because honestly, girls emotions are constantly in flux. Seriously the mind and emotions of a girl is an unpredictable place. Don’t try to ascribe logic to it. But outside of that, it's just basic human fluctuations in mood/state.

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– Of the remaining 40, 10 of them just won’t find you attractive for some reason. Either your look or general vibe is not what they’re looking for. Again, this is unavoidable. It doesn’t matter how tall/jacked/handsome/rich/cool/big-dicked you are, some girls just straight up won’t be into you. No one has universal appeal. Pick any male celebrity that’s been voted Sexiest Man Alive and there will be a good portion of the female population who will be like “eh, he’s alright”. I'm serious, go to Google right now and type in any male celebrities name and then put "not hot" or "not attractive" or "overrated" at the end (you could even search on Reddit) and you'll see that even these guys who are top .01% still have girls who think they ain't shit. If these guys cold approached, even they would have ~95% rejection rate.

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– So that leaves 30 left. These girls will give you their number. Now notice, we are only left with 30%. That means that no matter what you do, you will have a rejection rate of about 2/3rds (give or take) and NONE OF THE REASONS HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH YOU. And even of these remaining 30, most of THOSE have nothing to do with you either.

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– Of the 30 numbers you get, only 1/3-1/2 of them will respond to you when you text them. There’s several reasons for this. The girl could have just liked the interaction and gave out her number because it was fun, but didn’t have any intention of actually doing anything. She could have been not interested and only gave out her number to be polite or because she had anxiety about rejecting you. She could have wanted to meet you when she gave you her number, but then 2 days later decided she didn’t want to. Again, large majority of the time, it’s nothing you actually did wrong. This is a big thing that messes beginners up. They think that just because a girl gave out her number, she’s interested. And then when they text and the girl doesn’t respond, they think they did something wrong. 95%+ of the time, the guy didn’t do anything wrong. It’s normally very hard for newbies to internalize this. They usually still think girls operate within a logical framework. I’ll explain this more in another post, but for now just take my word for it that it’s probably not your fault.

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– So that’s 10-15 responses from those numbers. Now here’s where newbies get really fucked up. Even of those 10-15 that respond, only 1/3-1/2 of THOSE girls will actually go on a date with you. Yes, you read that right. A girl will respond, have a few back and forths with you, and then as soon as you suggest meeting up, they stop responding. THIS COMPLETELY MINDFUCKS NEWBIES. Even guys who accept that women don’t operate logically will still be absolutely flabberghasted as to how this is even a thing. It’s mainly the fact that the girl responded, making the guy think that she’s interested, and then she stops responding, leading a guy to logically (there’s that word again) assume that the cause of her not responding was them and he made her lose interest. He didn’t make her lose interest, large majority of the time, she was just never going to come on the date anyway, but it took actually being asked for her to realize this. Now this isn’t to say that there’s no way to turn a girl off or “mess up” through text and lower the chance she’ll come out or make her go from yes to no, but large majority of the time, its just that the girl was never going to come out.

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– Ok, so we are left with roughly 3-7 dates. Now once again, of those 3-7 dates, only 1/3-1/2 of them will hookup with you at some point. Some girls will be interested, but they want a boyfriend. Or they were interested, but it turns out you guys didn’t get along well. Or they were literally just bored and they had no intention of hooking up ever. 50% or more of the time, if a girl is on a date with you and doesn’t hook up, it’s not because of you. It’s because she was just never going to for whatever reason. Less than 50% of the time, its because you were disproportionately anxious/unconfident/weird or just didn’t go for the pull (aka ask her back to your place). The good thing about a girl going on a date with you is that if she’s on the date, you passed her looks threshold. A girl wouldn’t even consider going on a date with you if she wasn’t at least somewhat attracted to you. The only time a girl will go on a date with you if she’s not attracted to you is if she sees you as SO safe and SO MUCH of a nice guy that she immediately puts you in the friend zone and is just going out with you as a friend. Usually you can tell when this is happening. There’s no sexual tension of any sort, convo is extremely friendly, and when you go for the pull they act as if it came out of nowhere (because it did for them since they thought you were some safe nice guy and she could have you comfortably in the friend zone).  Now this isn’t to say that JUST because you have a nice conversation, or there’s no perceived sexual tension, or she acts surprised when you go for the pull, that you came off as a beta male best friend.  But if you have gone on 10+ dates and still not hooked up and you keep seeing the same patterns, there is definitely something you need to change/improve.

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– So that leaves us with 1-4 hookups out of those 100 approaches. These are the only girls that were actually able to be gotten out of all those 100 approaches. Game is your ability to convert these 4 girls. It is almost impossible to get a higher conversion rate than 4% (in America at least) unless you are purposely approaching girls within a narrow set of circumstances that is conducive to a higher probability of a positive result (aka, she has already shown you some type of indicator of interest, she’s by herself in a grocery store and not on the phone or in a hurry somewhere, etc). For instance, if I chose to only approach girls who showed me some amount of interest first (maybe a quick look), then my conversion rate would at least double. And then I could say I’m a super advanced guru because I have x% conversion rate and I know all the secrets and everyone sucks compared to me. But I would get laid less because so few girls give overt indicators of interest. At least 80% of the girls I've hooked up with did not give me ANY indicators of interest or "choosing signals" before I approached them.

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If any guy tells you that his conversion rate is 5% or higher, that almost guaranteed means that there are some approaches he is not doing. He might not even be doing it on purpose. Some guys don’t make certain approaches because it would never occur to them that they could. They might not even think to cross the street just to approach that girl that’s walking the opposite direction a block away. They might not even think to approach the girl who’s with 2 friends because they were taught that group approaches are not worth it. You get the idea. However there are some guys who are just straight up pussies and they see certain approaches and choose not to do it because zomg its scawy and cOnDiTiOnS aReN’t OpTiMaL. The guy could also just be straight up lying about his conversion rates, which is much more common.

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So that is my little shpeal on the numbers game. The short explanation is that if you approach enough girls, you’ll get laid. But there are specific reasons why rejections happen at every point in the process and it’s good to get an idea of what average numbers are to help push through those initial approaches and so you don’t start to feel down about the process prematurely. Because I could say “approach a bunch”, but does that mean 20? 50? 200? And I could say rejection is normal and you’ll always get rejected more than getting a positive result, but what types of rejections happen? And what’s “rejected more than getting a positive result?” 2x more? 5x more? 10x more? This gives you a guidepost. Also, this only really applies once you get over approach anxiety and can at least somewhat comfortably have a normal conversation and ask the girl for her number. So for your first few hundred approaches, you might not get any dates or lays while you are learning. There's a learning curve just like with anything. But once you get over approach anxiety and can just have a normal conversation and ask for the number, then you can start playing the numbers game.

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Again, this is all assuming you meet the looks threshold and are not disproportionately weird/anxious/unconfident. Being not-super confident is fine. Being even slightly below average is fine. I would say only about 20% of the male population falls in the disproportionately weird/anxious/unconfident category and have to actively work on that before they start seeing any results with cold approaching. You shouldn’t assume you’re in that category, but if you’re new and not super confident I know you’re probably going to think you’re in that category anyway. “How do I tell if I’m in the category?” I don’t fucking know, dude. Just go out there and approach and if you literally can’t speak or you stutter or you have a literal panic attack just thinking about approaching, you’re probably in that category. Just assume you’re not and go out there and approach.

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LISTED BELOW - Proof pics of myself, consistent numbers I get. No identifying info of any kind.

Most of the numbers did not result in a date. But some did. Those are the only ones I care about.

Edit - I have no idea how to remove the NSFW tag 😂

https://imgur.com/a/wQFWC2W