The general number for young men that are involuntarily sexless that is often put forward is 30% or 1/3. This is of course based on the washington post article where a graph was posted based on GSS data showing that the percentage of men from 18-30 who hadn't had sex in the last year had steadily risen from 10% in 2008 to 28% in 2018.
The first thing to note however is that according to the 2021 survey, this number fell from 28% to 18%. This is despite the US just starting to come out of lockdown restrictions. This means that the 2018 data point may well have been a statistical anomaly, and that the trend that was inferred was somewhat overblown.
Secondly, the number is a lot lower across the board when you control for views on premarital sex by limiting the analysis to men who have no moral qualms with premarital sex.
These are the figures we find after running the GSS data through Berkeley's Survey Documentation and Analysis program:
1988: 9%
1989: 8%
1990: 7%
1991: 12%
1993: 10%
1994: 7%
1996: 4%
1998: 12%
2000: 10%
2002: 5%
2004: 4%
2006: 9%
2008: 2%
2010: 7%
2012: 19%
2014: 9%
2016: 9%
2018: 7%
2021: 12%
This comes out to an average of 9%, and even in more recent years it hasn't really changed. This means that a lot of the trend may be driven by those with religious convictions voluntarily abstaining along with a trend of delayed marriage.
This also doesn't include those who DO have moral qualms with premarital sex who are having sex because they're married or their views are more conditional, meaning the overall rate of involuntarily sexless men will be lower still if they were included.
Therefore I think a more reasonable estimate for this demographic would be at most 1/10, far lower than the usual estimate.
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