The data is muddy, let's be clear. Still, it seems that there have not yet been major and recent changes in basic gender balance in mating and dating. There are lot of worrying changes that seem to have the potential to create gender imbalances in the future, and may have done so on the margins already. But they have not yet had an impact that really permeates the sexual marketplace.

For example, swipe-based apps are worrying, but the data does not bear out that the swipe and message ratios actually match with who meet and pair up in real life using the apps. It is clear that 20% of the guys are not having all the sex or relationships. Similarly, there is less sex, but the latest data shows this seems to impact both genders and is more a function of a shift to online socialization than a gender imbalance. Female outperformance and the intractability of various forms of hypergamy is perhaps the most likely thing to cause a future gender imbalance, but thus far the impact has not been massive when you look at the SMP as a whole.

These are all things to watch and worry about. But am I missing something? Why do so many people act as if we have already seen a massive imbalance manifest in the mating market since ~2010? Why do people act as if the number of Incels has already risen massively, rather than social media just revealing numbers that have been true for a long time?